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Blog: Econbrowser
While (final) sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey remains surprisingly downbeat given observables, the decline needs to be put into context. Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (tan, left scale), Gallup Economic Confidence (light green, left scale), all demeaned and normalized by standard deviation (for […]
Blog: Econbrowser
May's final numbers from the U.Michigan survey are out. Here's the picture of several one-year-ahead expected inflation rates. Figure 1: Year-on-year actual CPI inflation (bold black), and expected inflation from University of Michigan (red), NY Fed (light green), Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), Coibion-Gorodnichenko SoFIE mean (sky blue squares), and unit cost growth rate […]
Blog: Econbrowser
That's a prediction from Peter Navarro, on Chairman Powell's fate in a new Trump Administration. From The Hill yesterday: "My guess is that this punctilious non-economist will be gone in a hundred days one way or the other," Navarro said in an interview with Semafor, published Tuesday. Navarro name-checked Kevin Hassett and Tyler Goodspeed, both […]
Blog: Econbrowser
At the beginning of April. Wisconsinites' views on the state's economy were fairly downbeat, despite some positive indicators [0]. On possible explanation is the perception of the economy's state differs from respondent's own conditions. Another possibility is that we have mismeasured the economy's conditions. Figure 1: GDP (Ch.2017$) (bold dark blue), GDP (Ch.2012$) (light blue), […]
Blog: Econbrowser
The title at Zerohedge screams "Illegals Believe Trump Is Going To Win So They're Surging The Border Now". I looked for data, but found none, so I checked CBP: Source: CBP, accessed 23 April 2024. April's reading is lower than corresponding readings for 2023 and 20222, and matches 2021. This is not the picture I expected […]
Blog: Econbrowser
How certain are we about private NFP growth? Some worries from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) through December. Figure 1: Month-on-month change in private nonfarm payroll employment from CES (bold black), from ADP (green), from QCEW seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (tan), and from Business Employment Dynamics (light blue), all in […]
Blog: Econbrowser
At the same time as the Fed-NY Fed Dollar conference, the Atlanta Fed had a conference on financial markets. Session 3 was "The US Dollar in the International Financial System". Bob McCauley (formerly NY Fed and BIS) speaks along with Antoine Martin (SNB), Fabio Natalluci (IMF), and David Wessel (Brookings) moderates. Video here. Bob's paper […]
Blog: Econbrowser
From NYT: China launched two days of military drills surrounding Taiwan on Thursday in what it called a "strong punishment" to its opponents on the self-governing island, after Taiwan's new president pledged to defend its sovereignty. Map from the article: Here's the disposition of US naval forces, approximate as of 20 May 2024. Source: USNI […]
Blog: Econbrowser
The program continued on from yesterday (full agenda here). Sessions included papers on theoretical modeling of CIP deviations, the effect of swap line announcements on asset prices gleaned from high frequency data and new data on over the counter fx transactions. Once again a tremendous learning experience for me. Session 4: Swap Lines Chair: Linda […]
Blog: Econbrowser
Two years ago: That's a photo from my hotel room, right after Sweden asked to join NATO. Just a few months after the expanded Russian invasion of the Ukraine (reminder – the invasion began in 2014). Now. From Politico: The Russian defense ministry announced a plan Tuesday to expand the country's territorial waters in the Baltic […]
Blog: Econbrowser
It was a real pleasure to get to attend the conference (agenda here). Incredibly informative and stimulating — sometimes I think I know a lot about a subject, but conferences like this disabuse me of that notion. I add links to ungated versions of the papers presented today, below: Welcoming Remarks Chair: Beth Anne Wilson […]
Blog: Econbrowser
April and May inflation was overpredicted by year-ahead consumer-based surveys. Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), unit costs (chartreuse), all in %. May 2024 Michigan observation is preliminary. […]
Blog: Econbrowser
recession, stock market decline, and housing market decline. From December 19th (Newport Beach Independent): Economic Slowdown: The U.S. is likely to enter a recession, with consumers expected to deplete their savings, leading to only one potentially positive GDP quarter in 2024. Corporate Downsizing and Unemployment: Anticipated downsizing in corporations may push unemployment rates up, though […]
Blog: Econbrowser
An extensive Board article released on Friday: Figure 1 displays the fact that the US has reverted to pre-Covid trend, while other economies have not (pity poor UK, buffeted by Covid and Brexit). From the Conclusion: Our analysis points to growth divergence between the U.S. and AFEs being the result of a variety of factors, […]
Blog: Econbrowser
If no recession is forthcoming, what can we conclude, given most term spread models were signaling a "sure bet"? Unlikely outcome (it's a probabilistic world!), breakdown in historical correlations, omitted variable problem? In order to shed some light on this question, I examine probability estimates from (i) plain vanilla spread, (ii) debt-service-ratio and foreign term […]