Suchergebnisse

Advance warning of seasonal conditions has the potential to assist water management in planning and risk mitigation, with large potential social, economic, and ecological benefits. In this study, we explore the value of seasonal forecasting for decision-making at five case study sites located in extratropical regions. The forecasting tools used integrate seasonal climate model forecasts with freshwater impact models of catchment hydrology, lake conditions (temperature, water level, chemistry, and ecology), and fish migration timing and were co-developed together with water managers. To explore the decision-making value of forecasts, we carried out a qualitative assessment of (1) how useful forecasts would have been for a problematic past season and (2) the relevance of any windows of opportunity (seasons and variables where forecasts are thought to perform well) for management. Overall, water managers were optimistic about the potential for improved decision-making and identified actions that could be taken based on forecasts. However, there was often a mismatch between those variables that could best be predicted and those which would be most useful for management. Reductions in forecast uncertainty and a need to develop practical, hands-on experience were identified as key requirements before forecasts would be used in operational decision-making. Seasonal climate forecasts provided little added value to freshwater forecasts in these extratropical study sites, and we discuss the conditions under which seasonal climate forecasts with only limited skill are most likely to be worth incorporating into freshwater forecasting workflows. ; MINECO-AEI [PCIN-2017062, PCIN-2017-092]; FORMAS; BMBF; EPA; RCN [274208]; IFD; European Union [690462] ; Published version ; This work was carried out as part of the WATExR project, part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate and funded by MINECO-AEI (ES; grant nos. PCIN-2017062 and PCIN-2017-092), FORMAS (SE), BMBF (DE), EPA (IE), RCN (NO; grant no. 274208), and IFD (DK), ...

Colombia, one of the world's most species-rich nations, is currently undergoing a profound social transition: the end of a decades-long conflict with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as FARC. The peace agreement process will likely transform the country's physical and socioeconomic landscapes at a time when humans are altering Earth's atmosphere and climate in unprecedented ways. We discuss ways in which these transformative events will act in combination to shape the ecological and environmental future of Colombia. We also highlight the risks of creating perverse development incentives in these critical times, along with the potential benefits – for the country and the world – if Colombia can navigate through the peace process in a way that protects its own environment and ecosystems. © The Ecological Society of America

ABSTRACT: Colombia, one of the world's most species-rich nations, is currently undergoing a profound social transition: the end of a decadeslong conflict with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as FARC. The peace agreement process will likely transform the country's physical and socioeconomic landscapes at a time when humans are altering Earth's atmosphere and climate in unprecedented ways. We discuss ways in which these transformative events will act in combination to shape the ecological and environmental future of Colombia. We also highlight the risks of creating perverse development incentives in these critical times, along with the potential benefits – for the country and the world – if Colombia can navigate through the peace process in a way that protects its own environment and ecosystems.