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As the war in Ukraine moves into its third year, Russo-Japanese relations continue to deteriorate from the level that existed prior to the Russian invasion in 2022. Relations between the two countries have never been smooth. Relations have been hampered since World War II by the inability to conclude a treaty formally ending hostilities between the two countries and a disagreement resulting from an old territorial dispute involving a chain of Pacific islands known in Japan as the Northern Territories and in Russia as the Southern Kuriles. Even before the Ukraine conflict, Tokyo had complained about increased Russian military deployments on the islands. Despite these lingering post-World War II hostilities, Shinzo Abe, who served as prime minister from 2012 to 2020, helped foster warmer relations with Moscow as he attempted to court Russia as a buffer against China, Japan's greatest security threat. According to TASS, Putin and Abe met in person over 25 times and held about ten phone calls. Their last meeting took place in the fall of 2019 and their last telephone conversation was held on August 31, 2020, when Putin called Abe.The cornerstone of the Putin-Abe relationship was based on strong personal respect as well as mutual interests in increased trade, particularly to feed Japan's need for commodities. Abe also saw Russia as a potential buffer against an increasingly hostile China. In 2013, Russo-Japan trade approached a record $34.8 billion and remained strong throughout the decade despite fluctuating oil prices. As recently as 2021, total trade turnover was still above $20 billion, with 45% percent consisting of fuel exports to Japan. After the Ukraine invasion in February 2022, Tokyo revoked Russia's most-favored-nation status as part of a series of economic sanctions, including asset freezes targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian central bank. According to The Japan Times: "without the most-favored-nation status under the World Trade Organization rules…tariffs imposed on salmon imported from Russia have been raised to 5% from 3.5% and those on crab to 6% from 4%." As a result of these and fuel-related sanctions, total trade amounted to barely $10 billion in 2023.A decrease in imports of Russian coal by 67.1%, as well as a 44.9% drop in supplies of cars to Russia and Japanese spare parts and components by 32.5% amid sanctions against Moscow were the main factors behind the contraction of trade turnover. Energy resources and transport vehicles still account for over 69% of total trade turnover. Despite the decrease in total trade, a February report from JETRO, the Japanese External Trade Organization, claims that 156 companies and economic organizations were active in Russia before 2022 and 35% reported they continue business without any changes.Until the fall of 2023, Japan's $12.1 billion contribution to Ukraine over the past two years consisted mostly of financial and humanitarian aid as its military equipment provisions have primarily been limited to non-lethal weapons. However, in December, Moscow reacted angrily when Japan stated it would be prepared to ship Patriot air defense missiles to the United States after revising its arms export guidelines. This represents Tokyo's first major overhaul of such export curbs in nine years. Although Japan's new export controls still prevent it from shipping weapons to countries that are at war, it may "indirectly benefit Ukraine in its war with Russia as it gives the United States extra capacity to provide military aid to Kiev."The diplomatic situation has taken on a more contentious character recently as well.The Moscow Times reports that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on February 20 "slammed Japan's prime minister after he said his government remains committed to signing a peace treaty with Moscow to resolve the territorial dispute over an island chain claimed by Tokyo." Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said in a policy speech to parliament earlier that day that Tokyo "remains fully committed" to negotiations over what Japan refers to as the Northern Territories and signing an agreement formally ending World War II. Kishida also said that his government's support of Ukraine and sanctions against Russia "would not waver." Mevedev responded on X: "We don't give a damn about the 'feelings of the Japanese' concerning the so-called 'Northern territories." He added, "They're not 'disputed territories,' but Russia." This is indicative of the stance the Russian government has taken to Japan as an "unfriendly" country.Japan has also taken economic initiatives towards reconstruction in Ukraine that are not pleasing to Moscow. In mid-February, the government of Japan hosted the Japan-Ukraine Conference for Promotion of Economic Growth and Reconstruction. The conference, organized by the Japanese and Ukrainian governments as well as business organizations and JETRO, can only be viewed as an indicator of Japanese geopolitical priorities in support of the status quo in Europe. Moreover, Japanese efforts to spearhead reconstruction efforts send a clear indication that its priorities are allied with the United States and Europe Union. According to the Japanese Foreign Ministry, Japanese and Ukrainian government agencies and companies signed more than 50 deals, Japan pledged 15.8 billion yen ($105 million) in new aid for Ukraine to fund demining and other urgently needed reconstruction projects in the energy and transportation sectors, and President Kishida also announced the opening of a new government trade office Kyiv. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine its military cooperation with China has gotten stronger. Japan views their growing military cooperation as an unprecedented threat as it could become isolated in the region. As a result, it continues to try and demonstrate its commitment to the status quo in terms of supporting international sovereignty and law and order. While Japan's elites would like to continue the stability offered by its Cold War military alliance with the United States and South Korea, they understand the U.S. may no longer share the same interests in the region. Moreover, relations with South Korea are fractured and can make the alliance with the United States dysfunctional at times. This requires Japan to continue to seek openings with Russia that are in its own national interests. Although the Abe administration may have represented the peak for Russo-Japanese relations and such a level of relations is not replicable in the short term (particularly while Russia is still at war with Ukraine) it is in both Russia and Japan's interests to foster cordial relations, if not entirely friendly ones, via business, cultural and other non-government exchanges. Japanese companies still share a desire to resume business operations and invest in Russia once the war concludes in Ukraine. In April 2022, negotiations were concluded between the two countries regarding salmon and trout fishing and other potential fishing agreements could be concluded in the future.In addition, January 2024 saw double the number of Russian visitors to Japan as in January 2023. These are just two areas for positive interaction. However, a considerable measure of restraint will be required as a long war with Ukraine may erode possibilities even in these areas.

Western countries have asserted since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine that they would use sanctions as a critical tool to suppress Russia's economy and sever its ability to trade with the rest of the world. They have kept their promise by continually adding to the number of sanctions as Russia's war in Ukraine has stretched into it second year.As of January 2024, the Russian Federation was subject to over 28,000 sanctions and the majority of these occurred after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Approximately 16,000 of these sanctions were imposed against individuals, while nearly 10,000 were imposed against companies and 3,200 against institutions. Additionally, there have been sectoral sanctions such as general trade embargoes on gas and oil. The EU and the U.S. have imposed most of these but countries like Japan, South Korea and Switzerland have also participated. While these sanctions intended to hamper Russia's war effort and foment domestic economic and political instability, most have not achieved these objectives. Russia has maintained its military activities in Ukraine while recent IMF forecasts predict growth of 2.6 percent in 2024 — at a time when many EU countries are heading toward recession amidst significant political uncertainty in 2024 — a pivotal election year in many Western democracies.Perhaps the greatest achievement has been reinforcing Russia's trade pivot to the East and the Global South and away from the European Union. As a result, Russia's trade turnover reached $530.2 billion in the first nine months of 2023. Exports reached $316.9 billion, while imports reached $213.3 billion. Russian exports to Asian countries reached $226.6 billion, an increase of 10.3% year on year, while imports amounted to $139.7 billion, increasing 39.5%. China accounted for $105 billion during the same time period compared to $78 billion for all of 2021. And Chinese imports of fuels were $52.7 billion in 2021 compared to $77.0 billion in the first nine months of 2023. China comprised $81.8 billion in imports to Russia (almost 40%) in the first nine months of 2023 while imports were 54.5 billion in all of 2021. During that same time, Russia's exports to India were $52 billion versus $8 billion for 2021. Indian imports of Russian fuel increased from $4 billion in all of 2021 to $46 billion during the first nine months of 2023.In contrast, Russian exports to the EU were $47 billion in the first nine months of 2023, a significant decrease from $192.8 billion in all of 2021. Russian imports from the EU sunk below $32 billion in the first nine months in 2023 from $81 billion just 21 months earlier. Fuel imports from Russia to the EU collapsed from $120 billion in 2021 to less than $27 billion in the first 9 months of 2023. Lastly, sanctions greatly reduced the share of imports from Russia from 28% in 2021 to 3% in 2023.Building a new trade frameworkThe trade numbers clearly depict the momentous redirection in Russian trade flows during the nearly two years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But they don't reflect the geopolitical activities underpinning this seismic change nor do they indicate recent initiatives that the Russian government has undertaken to solidify the direction of trade. In this respect, Russia has actively engaged in a wide array of diplomatic activities, ranging from bilateral talks with countries like India and Iran to efforts to expand the membership and geopolitical reach of the BRICS and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).Late last year, India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met in Moscow to discuss issues concerning the usual political, defense, and cultural partnerships. They also discussed more seriously, economic cooperation issues intended to buttress the strong growth in Russia-India trade that has occurred since 2022. The focus of these economic discussions centered on logistics, particularly those related to the establishment of the North-South International Transport Corridor (INSTC). All three segments of the corridor are now functional. These include the Western route (Russia-Azerbaijan-Iran-India), the Middle route (Russia-Iran-India) and the Eastern route (Russia-Central Asia-Iran-India). Russia hopes the increased use of the corridor will improve the infrastructure in Caspian ports and the ability to improve the status of Astrakhan and Makhachkala as transport hubs. Now that the Vladivostok-Chennai Sea route or Eastern Maritime Corridor (EMC) is also operational, India and Russia will have a realistic opportunity to elevate economic cooperation going forward and this will only bolster bilateral relations.The corridor is beneficial to India as well, both economically and geopolitically. It reflects the Indian elite's desire for viable alternatives to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India is also confident the corridor will provide greater access to Central Asia bypassing Pakistan and continue to strengthen its economic ties with Iran and Russia. Another way that Russia is seeking to enhance regional trade is through the EEU. On December 25, EEU leaders met and signed an agreement with Iran. The agreement marked the end of two years of negotiations and will come into force after the ratification by the national parliaments. The Iran-EEU Free Trade Agreement eliminates tariffs of 87% of traded goods between the parties. It represents Iran's most extensive trade deal to date and it's an important deal for Russia as it solidifies another trade partner and underscores its leading role in the trade group and in Central Asia's economic development. Finally, in January 2024 the BRICS announced the expansion of the group by five new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The new membership will increase total BRICS GDP to $28.5 trillion or 28.1% of global output, compared to the G7 countries' 43.2% of global output. While the expansion of BRICS is notable from an economic perspective, it's more meaningful in a geopolitical context. The addition of Middle Eastern and more African countries gives the group a larger presence along key shipping and trade routes. It also increases the BRICS share of global oil production to 43% and 25% of exports. It's also important to note that BRICS accounts for 72% of global rare earth elements, which are key to high-tech weapons and consumer goods, including circuit boards and mobile phones.While many in the West only pay attention to the rhetoric about Russia's weak and collapsing economy and its economic isolation, Western policymakers need to follow closely Russia's continued initiatives in the geopolitical sphere. Russia's economic engagement may be complicated due to the joining of some difficult geopolitical realities, but the evolving framework has the potential to disrupt the traditional "rules-based global order" if not undermine it. Therefore, a policy of constructive and unrestricted engagement in trade and economic relations on a global scale needs to be a key tool of commercial diplomacy for Western policymakers going forward. This would include greater restraint from the heavy-handed sanctions policies that only reduce Western access to key goods and lead to higher global inflation, the brunt of which is borne by the middle- and lower-class consumer.