Suchergebnisse

The synchronization of business cycles represents one of the conditions that
countries have to fulfil to become part of an optimum currency area, as well
as a condition for the efficient implementation of a common economic policy
in these countries. This paper examines the extent to which Serbia and its
neighbouring countries fulfil these conditions, taking the euro area as an
optimum currency area. By applying the Hodrick-Prescott and the band-pass
filters, as well as the Pearson correlation coefficient and the Spearman rank
correlation coefficient, this paper examines the synchronization of business
cycles in these countries. Taking Serbia as an example, the influence of the
foreign trade volume between two countries on the similarity of their
business cycles is tested. The results show a lower harmonization of business
cycles in Serbia with those in the euro area, when compared with the selected
neighbouring countries, and do not confirm the thesis on the influence of the
foreign trade volume on the harmonization of business cycles.