Suchergebnisse

For natural disasters such as hurricanes and tornados, prediction systems and public warning programs have been operational for many years. Earthquake prediction, however, is only an emerging technology. Given the potential for catastrophe in a large earthquake and the great difficulty in specifying time, location and magnitude of impact, certain substantial policy problems emerge; hence, the maximum benefit of scientific earthquake predictions is realized. Policy planners must concentrate on public education and the creation of organizational linkages which would comprise the public warning information system (i.e., how and what is said, and monitoring public response to any warning). Most important is that the issue of prediction‐warning be addressed now since planning can produce benefits even if no predictions are issued.

The conclusion reached in this research is that there are both similarities and differences in the response of organizations to scientifically credible earthquake predictions in Japan versus the United States. In general, Japanese organizations would cast an earthquake prediction as an "opportunity", while organizations in the United States would view a predition as an "imposition" until they are convinced that they are at risk. Recent and continuing changes in policies and programs in the United States may well reduce this difference between the two nations. Specifically, findings revealed that resources were necessary for prediction-related mitigation and preparedness actions by all organizations; having a reason to respond to a prediction—or risk–was necessary for organizations in the United States, but not so in Japan where useful response is likely regardless of risk; finally, having the knowledge to act in response to a prediction was necessary for government organizations, but not for corporations who could more readily, perhaps, buy the needed expertise.

This paper synthesizes the research record regarding urban relocation after earthquakes. Three alternative relocation responses after earthquakes are identified, the range of factors that have been documented to influence them are presented, and identified human impacts of relocation after earthquakes are discussed. The conclusion is drawn that predisaster planning for rebuilding cities after earthquakes is central to enhancing risk reduction effectivenss.

A model of public perception and response to communication about natural hazards risk was constructed. It was estimated on data from samples of households in three communities at risk in the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment. Estimated model parameters revealed consistent conclusions. Communicated risk information that was reinforced through additional communications and/or social cues precipitated an interactive personal search for more information; personal definitions of risk and what to do emerged; and these social constructions directed how the public responded. Perceived risk only indirectly impacted public action through information searching. This suggests that searching behavior should intervene between perception of risk and response in the theory of public risk communication.

Citizen response to the Loma Prieta earthquake emergency was assessed on representative samples from San Francisco and Santa Cruz Counties. Almost everyone in both counties personalized the disaster regardless of the amount of personal damage experienced, and about two-thirds of the public in both counties got involved in some sort of emergency response activity. The amount of mainshock damage experienced had the strongest predictive value for emergency response involvement. Our finding suggest that collective identification may be a necessary but not sufficient cause for collective action in response in disaster.