Suchergebnisse

Intro -- Contents -- List of Figures -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 Historical Perspective -- 1.2 Overview of the Book -- References -- 2 'Classical' Techniques of Modelling Trends and Cycles -- 2.1 The Classical Trend-Cycle Decomposition -- 2.2 Deterministic Trend Models -- 2.2.1 Linear Trends -- 2.2.2 Nonlinear Trends -- 2.2.3 Breaking and Segmented Trends -- 2.2.4 Smooth Transitions and Fourier Series Approximations -- 2.3 Estimating Trends Using Moving Averages -- 2.3.1 Simple Moving Averages -- 2.3.2 Weighted Moving Averages -- 2.4 The Cyclical Component -- 2.4.1 Autoregressive Processes for the Cyclical Component -- 2.4.2 Estimating the Cyclical Component -- 2.5 Some Problems Associated with the Classical Approach to Detrending -- 2.5.1 Further Reading and Background Material -- References -- 3 Stochastic Trends and Cycles -- 3.1 An Introduction to Stochastic Trends -- 3.2 Determining the Order of Integration of a Time Series -- 3.3 Some Examples of ARIMA Modelling -- 3.4 Trend Stationarity Versus Difference Stationarity -- 3.4.1 Distinguishing Between Trend and Difference Stationarity -- 3.4.2 Estimating Trends Robustly -- 3.4.3 Breaking Trends and Unit Root Tests -- 3.5 Unobserved Component Models and Signal Extraction -- 3.5.1 Unobserved Component Models -- 3.5.2 The Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition -- 3.5.3 Signal Extraction -- 3.5.4 Basic Structural Models -- 3.6 Further Reading and Background Material -- References -- 4 Filtering Economic Time Series -- 4.1 Detrending Using Linear Filters -- 4.1.1 Symmetric Linear Filters -- 4.1.2 Frequency-Domain Properties of Linear Filters -- 4.1.3 Designing a Low-Pass Filter -- 4.1.4 High-Pass and Band-Pass Filters -- 4.2 The Hodrick-Prescott Filter -- 4.2.1 The Hodrick-Prescott Filter in Infinite Samples -- 4.2.2 The Finite Sample H-P Filter.

Udny Yule's seminal influence on time series analysis has long been recognized but much less recognized is that Yule was not only a wonderful expositor but that he had also published equally important research in an extraordinarily wide range of fields, from developing the theory of correlation and regression to providing mathematical models of evolutionary behavior, and from analyzing data on pauperism to using statistical methods to resolve cases of disputed authorship of medieval manuscripts.Yet little has been written about Yule and his work, apart from a few scattered articles, since his death in 1951 and the two obituaries that appeared in the following year. This book is an opportune moment to redress the balance and to embark on the first major study of Yule's statistical research and subsequent legacy. Part of the text's title is taken from Yule's 1920 article in the Cambridge Review, 'The wind bloweth where it listeth', where Yule coined the phrase 'loafers of the world' to describe free spirits of academe, who have become an increasingly rare breed in modern university life.Udny Yule was Lecturer, then Reader, in Statistics at Cambridge University, England, from 1912 to 1930. He was a member, then Fellow, of St John's College, at Cambridge Universty, from 1913 until his death in 1951. He was a member of the Royal Statistical Society from 1895 until his death, was awarded the Society's Guy Medal in Gold in 1911, and was President from 1924 to 1926. Yule was awarded a C.B.E. in 1919 for his work during the First World War in the War Office and the Ministry of Food.

This book provides an introductory treatment of time series econometrics, a subject that is of key importance to both students and practitioners of economics. It contains material that any serious student of economics and finance should be acquainted with if they are seeking to gain an understanding of a real functioning economy

This book is an introductory text on analyzing economic data, covering all the key issues required for students wishing to understand and analyse core empirical issues in economics. It focuses on descriptive statistics, probability concepts and basic econometrics and uses many relevant and contemporary economic examples to illustrate these techniques. The book has an accompanying website that contains all the data used in the examples and also provides Econometric Views exercises for both replicating the examples and undertaking original research. It is thus an essential text for both those being confronted with economic data analysis for the first time and those undertaking their first research projects in economics.