This book presents an overview of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) resource allocation issue, considering the period from 1948 to 1980. It describes the major characteristics of the DoD resource allocation process and discusses the potential impact of various shocks on the allocation system.
There are two dominant approaches to political decision making in general and foreign policy decision making in particular: rational choice and cognitive psychology. The essays here introduce and test the poliheuristic theory of decision making that integrates elements of both schools. The poliheuristic theory is able to account for the outcome and the process of decisions, and integrates across levels of analysis (individual, dyad, and group). The collection focuses on both elements of the theory itself and also looks at how the theory can be used to better understand political decisions that were made in the past
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The concept of policy makers' familiarity with a decision task has received considerable attention in recent years in the literature on decision making by analogy, intuitive decision making, and dynamic versus static decision making. The effect of familiarity on the decision strategy change of high-ranking officers of the U.S. Air Force is tested to see whether and how familiar versus unfamiliar decision tasks affect decision strategy change during the decision-making process. Results support the noncompensatory principle of political decision making and poliheuristic theory: Leaders are sensitive to negative political advice, which is often noncompensatory. They first use dimensions to eliminate noncompensatory alternatives and then evaluate acceptable alternatives. This two-stage process is even more pronounced in unfamiliar decision settings with low or high levels of ambiguity—a situation that characterizes many foreign policy crises.
Poliheuristic theory (PH) bridges the gap between cognitive and rational theories of decision making. PH postulates a two-stage decision process. During the first stage, the set of possible options is reduced by applying a "noncompensatory principle" to eliminate any alternative with an unacceptable return on a critical, typically political, decision dimension. Once the choice set has been reduced to alternatives that are acceptable to the decision maker, the process moves to a second stage, during which the decision maker uses more analytic processing in an attempt to minimize risks and maximize benefits. In this article, the author applies poliheuristic theory to individual, sequential, and interactive decision settings. Subsequent articles in this issue offer theoretical extensions and multiple tests of the theory using multiple methods (formal, statistical, experimental).
