Suchergebnisse

AbstractThis paper presents further empirical support for the finding that the impact of inflation and that of policy instruments to manage inflation are not distributed equally across households of different income groups. In particular, the evidence using South African data suggests that monetary policy tightening, which seeks to maintain low and stable inflation, has a relatively modest effect on real consumption of poorer households, who tend to rely on government grants and spend larger shares of income on food stuff, while the reduction in real consumption of wealthier households is much larger. This may be due to the fact that low and stable inflation help maintain the value of government grants and cap food prices both in real terms, and higher interest rates reduce labour income, weaken asset price performance and increase debt service cost.

AbstractAgainst the backdrop of low oil prices, oil-macro-financial linkages in Saudi Arabia are analyzed by applying panel econometric frameworks (multivariate and vector autoregression) to macro- and micro-level data for 9 banks spanning 1999–2014. Lower growth of oil prices and nonoil private sector output leads dampen credit and deposit growth and lift nonperforming loan ratios. Positive feedback loops within bank balance sheets in turn dampen economic activity. U.S. interest rates are not found to be a key determinant. The banking system remains strong at present, but policy makers should monitor its health with the important macro-financial feedback loops in mind.

Cover -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. INFLATION AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS -- Inflation Performance -- Inflation Expectations -- III. RELATED LITERATURE -- IV. METHODOLOGY -- V. THE DATA -- VI. RESULTS -- The Weight on the Implicit Anchor in Explaining Inflation Expectations -- Different Forecast Horizons -- Focusing on one- and two-year horizon forecasts -- The Implicit Inflation Anchor -- VII. CONCLUDING DISCUSSION -- Figures -- 1. Headline Inflation and Official Inflation Target Range -- 2. Indicators of South Africa's Inflation Performance -- 3. Inflation Expectations and Inflation Target Range -- 4. Weibull Decay Functions -- 5. Weight on Anchor Over Different Forecast Horizons, Consensus Forecasts -- 6. Weight on Anchor Over Different Forecast Horizons, BER Expectations -- 7. Weight on Anchor 12 And 24 Months Ahead, Consensus Forecasts -- 8. Weight on Anchor Four and Eight Quarters Ahead, BER Expectations -- 9. Estimated Inflation Anchor Using Consensus Economics Forecasts -- 10. Estimated Inflation Anchor Using BER Expectations -- 11. Inflation Forecast Mean Squared Error -- Tables -- 1. Inflation Facing Different Expenditure Quintiles in South Africa, 2009M01-2017M12 -- 2. Estimation Results -- References