Suchergebnisse

Abstract
While unemployment rates in Europe declined after the global financial crisis until 2018/2019, the incidence of long-term unemployment, the share of people who have been unemployed for >1 year to the total unemployed, remained high. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic could aggravate the long-term unemployment. This paper explores the factors associated with long-term unemployment in European countries using a panel of 25 European countries over the period 2000–2018. We find that skill mismatches, labor market matching efficiency, and labor market policies are associated with the incidence of long-term unemployment. Among the different types of active labor market policies, training and startup incentives are found to be effective in reducing long-term unemployment.

This paper revisits the fiscal sustainability condition proposed by Domar (1944). The Domar condition is derived from the government budget constraint and thus focuses on the supply side of the government bond. By considering the demand for the government bond, this paper finds that public debt sustainability depends on interest rate sensitivity to changes in government bond supply and demand. Data shows that the prediction of our model on public debt sustainability is consistent with the cases of Greece and Japan.

This paper studies how an aging population affects economic performance and the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. We develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households, workers, and retirees. We demonstrate that an increase in the proportion of working population increases aggregate output, consumption, and investment by increasing total labor supply in the long run. It also increases wages and reduces social security burden of the government. This paper also finds that effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies is weakened when the proportion of retirees becomes larger. This is the reason why recent monetary policies cannot recover the Japanese economy from the prolonged stagnation.

Cover -- Contents -- ABSTRACT -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. CASE STUDIES -- A. Burkina Faso (2009-2013)-Simplifying the Tax System and Broadening the Tax Base -- B. The Gambia (2011-2015)-Introducing VAT with Strengthened Tax Administration -- C. Maldives (2011-2017)-Boosting Tax Revenues, Supported by Tourism Industry -- D. Mauritania (2010-2014)-Shifting Toward Noncommodity Tax Revenues -- E. Rwanda (2010-2015)-Comprehensive Reform with Gradual but Sustained Gains -- F. Senegal (2010-2017)-Undertaking Policy and Administration Reforms -- G. Uganda (2013-2017)-Removing Tax Exemptions Through Strong Political Will -- III. LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE CASE STUDIES -- REFERENCES -- FIGURES -- 1. Burkina Faso: Total Tax Revenues -- 2. Burkina Faso: Tax Revenues by Item -- 3. The Gambia: Total Tax Revenues -- 4. The Gambia: Tax Revenues by Item -- 5. Maldives: Total Tax Revenues -- 6. Maldives: Tax Revenues by Item -- 7. Mauritania: Total Tax Revenue -- 8. Mauritania: Tax Revenues by Item -- 9. Mauritania: VAT C-Efficiency -- 10. Rwanda: Total Tax Revenue -- 11. Rwanda: Tax Revenues by Item -- 12. Rwanda: VAT C-Efficiency -- 13. Senegal: Total Tax Revenue -- 14. Senegal: Tax Revenues by Item -- 15. Uganda: Total Tax Revenue -- 16. Uganda: Tax Revenues by Item -- TABLES -- 1. Recent Tax Increase Episodes in LICs.

Cover -- Contents -- ABSTRACT -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. LITERATURE REVIEW -- III. STYLIZED FACTS -- IV. DATA AND METHODOLOGY -- V. EMPIRICAL FINDINGS -- VI. CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- REFERENCES -- TABLES -- 1. Effects of Government Spending Shock on Gender Employment -- 2. Impacts of Spending Shocks on Female and Male Unemployment, Labor Force, and Employment During Recessions -- FIGURES -- 1. Female Share of Total Employment: 1986-2016 -- 2. Female Share of Total Employment: 2007-2017 -- 3. Output and Female Share of Total Employment -- 4. Fiscal Spending and Female Share of Total Employment -- 5. The Dynamic Effects of a Positive Government Spending Shock in SVAR Model -- 6. Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Gender Equality -- APPENDIXES -- I. Statistical Summary -- II. Gender-Related Fiscal Policies -- III. Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Employment Rates during Recessions -- IV. Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Labor Force during Recessions -- V. Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Unemployment Rates during Recessions -- VI. Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Gender Equality -- VII. Response of Predicted Female Share of Employment During Recessions