Suchergebnisse

This paper examines the impact of oil revenues on the Iranian economy over the past hundred years, spanning the period 1908-2010. It is shown that although oil has been produced in Iran over a very long period, its importance in the Iranian economy was relatively small up until the early 1960s. It is argued that oil income has been both a blessing and a curse. Oil revenues when managed appropriately are a blessing, but their volatility (which in Iran is much higher than oil price volatility) can have adverse effects on real output, through excessively high and persistent levels of inflation. Lack of appropriate institutions and policy mechanisms which act as shock absorbers in the face of high levels of oil revenue volatility have also become a drag on real output. In order to promote growth, policies should be devised to control inflation; to serve as shock absorbers negating the adverse effects of oil revenue volatility; to reduce rent seeking activities; and to prevent excessive dependence of government finances on oil income.

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oilrevolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regionsover the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achievedthrough imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The resultsshow that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S.supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging marketoil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in mostcountries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S.oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importingcountries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.

This paper examines the long-run relationship between consumer price index industrialworkers (CPI-IW) inflation and GDP growth in India. We collect data on a sample of 14 Indianstates over the period 1989-2013, and use the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CSDL)approach of Chudik et al. (2013) as well as the standard panel ARDL method forestimation-to account for cross-state heterogeneity and dependence, dynamics and feedbackeffects. Our findings suggest that, on average, there is a negative long-run relationship betweeninflation and economic growth in India. We also find statistica

This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external income?the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers?from major oil-exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be one of the main long-run drivers of real output. Using quarterly data between 1979 and 2009 on core macroeconomic variables for Jordan and a number of key foreign variables, we identify two long-run relationships: an output equation as predicted by theory and an equation linking foreign and domestic in

This paper uses a pairwise approach to investigate the main factors that have been driving inflation differentials in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region for the past two decades. The results suggest that inflation differentials in the GCC are largely influenced by the oil cycle, mainly through the credit and fiscal channels. This implies that closer coordination of fiscal policies will be key for facilitating the closer integration of the GCC economies and ahead of the move to a monetary union. The results also indicate that after controlling for cyclical factors, convergence increased

10. Rolling Estimates of the Effects of Changes in Oil Prices on Real Dividends11. Monthly Oil Production for Iran, Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the US (1000 barrels/day); Tables; 1. Countries and Regions in the GVAR-Oil Model; 2. Correlations between Changes in Real Oil Prices, Equity Prices and Dividends; 3. Estimates of the Long-run Coefficients of Real Oil Prices based on Various ARDL Regressions and Sub-samples, 1970M1-2016M4.