Suchergebnisse

This paper analyses the evolution of Chile's trade between 1990 and 2007, studying in particular the impact of trade liberalization in addition to traditional price and demand determinants. The results show that export and import flows are mainly responsive to external and domestic demand, and less so to relative prices, although there is a small impact on imports. In addition, the analysis suggests that trade liberalization may have played a role in increasing exports and imports. Estimations of trade elasticities for other countries in Latin America tend to confirm the results found for Chil

Cette note de synthèse pour la soutenance d'une thèse sur travaux présente quinze articles écrits entre 2000 et 2015. La moitié des articles présentés ici ont été publiés dans des revues à comité de lecture ou comme chapitres de livre, l'autre moitié a le statut de document de travail ou de miméographe. A deux exceptions près, l'ensemble des travauxa été présenté à des conférences ou à des séminaires.Le thème principal de la thèse porte sur les politiques macroéconomiques. Mener une "bonne politique économique" suppose de bien comprendre la situation conjoncturelle de l'économie et du coup la nécessité et les objectifs de l'action publique; d'avoir une estimation fiable de l'impact des instruments; et d'avoir sur la base d'un cadre théoriquecohérent une idée des effets positifs recherchés mais aussi des effets pervers que peuvent engendrer ces politiques. Les différents travaux présentés ici essayent d'éclairer les décisions de politique économique sur une série d'applications variées.

The main narrative about the Japanese fiscal situation is about the unsustainable debt trajectory. On the public expenditure side however, Japan is relatively more efficient that its peers: using a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology over a range of public policies, this paper finds that Japan has high efficiency score in health care, intermediate scores in education and non-pension social expenditures, but lower scores for administrative or infrastructure expenditures. Overall the input efficiency score of Japan is of 0.78 percent against 0.71 for the OECD on average and 0.64 percent for advanced G20 countries. We conservatively estimate that the scope for efficiency savings is of the order of 2.5 percentage points of GDP or 8 percent of non-pension public expenditures. Adding additional sectors were Japan overspends relative to its peer (such as agriculture or waste management), the overall saving could be of around 3.4 points of GDP, a significant contribution to the consolidation of public finance. There are however two caveats to the main results: Japan has comparatively less scope to consolidate its public finance through enhancing efficiency that its peers in the OECD, where efficiency savings are of the order of 4.1 points of GDP, or advanced G20 economies with savings of 4.7 points of GDP; aging pressures will contribute to further increase social expenditures, no matter how efficient they might be.

This article uses two analytical methodologies to understand the dynamics of inflation in Paraguay, the mark-up theory of inflation and the monetary theory of inflation. We also study the impact of different monetary aggregates. The results suggest that monetary factors, in particular currency in circulation, play a major role in determining long-run inflation, while foreign prices, in particular from Brazil, or some food products have a large impact on the short-term dynamics of inflation. Wage indexation may also contribute to locking up price increases