Suchergebnisse

As reputation and credibility are important elements for monetary policy effectiveness, the paper aims at exploring the concepts of both and its importance in a context where central banks policies are not neutral, that is, monetary policy affects real and nominal variables. The paper seeks to contribute with a new analysis of how the sort of reputation developed by the monetary authority affects the state of expectations, and then the economic performance, enabling a particular situation that we call "credibility trap" - which makes monetary policy ineffective to affect real activity when necessary. Although the paper presents some similarities to the orthodox approach regarding both reputation and credibility's importance for central banks and its policies, it is different from the orthodox approach speaking of distinct forms of monetary policy recommendations and the sort of reputation that it recommends to be developed.

O presente trabalho tem como principal objetivo mostrar que a política monetária, quando conduzida por meio de uma regra de manipulação da taxa de juros voltada exclusivamente para controlar a inflação (em um regime de metas para a inflação), embora consiga atingir tal objetivo, apresenta um resultado pior se comparada a uma política monetária que seja implementada, também, para atingir uma meta para o nível do produto. O modelo proposto enfatiza: o papel das expectativas, o papel da autoridade monetária por meio de sua função de reação à luz da hipótese de não neutralidade da moeda e a influência da reputação da autoridade monetária sobre os resultados observados na economia.

AbstractUsing official communiqués about fiscal policy, we develop a fiscal sentiment indicator, and we verify the reaction of disagreements in inflation expectations to fiscal sentiment. This analysis is relevant to inflation targeting (IT) countries because transparency and communication can influence expectations. The results suggest that a more optimistic fiscal sentiment reduces disagreements in inflation expectations. Estimates show that, for higher disagreements in inflation expectations at 12‐month maturity, an optimistic fiscal sentiment can reduce the disagreement more sharply. In turn, the fiscal sentiment effect on the disagreement for the 48‐month maturity is stronger the smaller the disagreement is. The results allow us to outline the following policy recommendations. First, an optimistic fiscal environment is important in the task of guiding inflation expectations and reducing inflation uncertainty. Second, fiscal communication is an important tool for the expectations formation process, and therefore it must be carefully managed to help in the task of forward guidance of inflation expectations, being important for the IT regime. Third, both fiscal credibility and monetary policy credibility are important for the expectations formation process, particularly for the reduction of inflation uncertainty, representing aspects that must be preserved in countries that adopt the IT regime.

Purpose
The evidence concerning the effects of the inflation targeting (IT) regime as well as greater central bank transparency on monetary policy interest rates is not conclusive, and the following questions remain open. What is the effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of monetary policy interest rate? Does central bank transparency affect the level of the monetary policy interest rate and its volatility? Are these effects greater in developing countries? The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature by answering these questions. Hence, the paper analyzes the effects of IT and central bank transparency on monetary policy.


Design/methodology/approach
The analysis uses a sample of 48 countries (31 developing) comprising the period between 1998 and 2014. Based on panel data methodology, estimates are made for the full sample, and then for the sample of developing countries.


Findings
Countries that adopt the IT regime tend to have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. The effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is smaller in developing countries. Besides, countries with more transparent central banks have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. In turn, the effect of central bank transparency on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is greater in developing countries.


Practical implications
The study brings important practical implications regarding the influence of both the IT regime and central bank transparency on monetary policy.


Originality/value
Studies have sought to analyze whether IT and central bank transparency are effective to control inflation. However, few studies analyze the influence of IT and central bank transparency on interest rates. This study differs from the few existing studies since: the analysis is done not only for the effect of transparency on the level of the monetary policy interest rate, but also on its volatility; the central bank transparency index that is used has never been utilized in this sort of analysis; and the study uses panel data methodology, and compares the results between different samples.

Atualmente um número considerável de países adota explicitamente o regime de metas para a inflação como uma referência para a condução da política monetária e como forma de afetar as expectativas do público. A política monetária, sob o regime de metas de inflação, é conduzida fundamentalmente baseada na manipulação de um único instrumento de controle da inflação - a taxa de juros. Contudo, advoga-se que a insistência no uso exclusivo desse instrumento traz consequências negativas para a formação de expectativas sobre o potencial de crescimento da economia. Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho tem como objetivo explicitar o processo de formação de preços em economias de mercado e discutir como a política monetária, sob o regime de metas de inflação, atua de maneira satisfatória sobre a formação de expectativas para a inflação, mas de maneira nociva sobre a formação das expectativas de crescimento do produto a longo prazo.

Para se desenvolver uma teoria que busca explicar como a política monetária afeta a economia é necessário entender como os indivíduos tomam decisões com base em suas expectativas e na confiança. Nesse sentido, torna-se fundamental conhecer os elementos determinantes das expectativas e da confiança dos agentes e como são afetados pela autoridade monetária. Tendo como referenciais teóricos (i) o esquema desenvolvido por Dequech (1999a) relacionado aos determinantes das expectativas e da confiança dos agentes; (ii) os pressupostos que fundamentam a não-neutralidade da moeda; e (iii) a literatura que aborda a influência da reputação, da credibilidade e da transparência sobre a economia, o artigo tem como objetivo demonstrar a influência do trinômio credibilidade-reputação-transparência para o "estado de expectativa" dos indivíduos, e, assim, para a capacidade da política monetária em afetar emprego e renda, mantendo a estabilidade de preços.

PurposeDue to the fact that crime and violence affect the economy and the business environment, and since the economic environment affects entrepreneurs' expectations and therefore their decisions, this study analyzes the effect of both violence and crime on the confidence of entrepreneurs from the state of Rio de Janeiro.Design/methodology/approachMaking use of time series methodology, the authors provide OLS and GMM estimates for the effects of violence and crime on the business confidence index of entrepreneurs in Rio de Janeiro. The analysis of the Rio de Janeiro case is relevant since Rio de Janeiro is the second state, after São Paulo, with the largest participation in the Brazilian GDP, and crime and violence have very high indicators in this state. The analysis comprises the period between January 2012 and July 2018 (monthly data).FindingsThe results suggest that violence and crime negatively impact business confidence in Rio de Janeiro. The estimates reveal that, among all economic and noneconomic variables, the third variable with the greatest impact on business confidence is "cargo thefts." An increase of one standard deviation in this variable reduces business confidence by approximately 2.48 basis points, while increases of one standard deviation in "violent deaths," "commerce thefts" and "extortion" reduce business confidence by approximately 1.24, 1.46 and 1.47 bp, respectively. The impacts caused by these violence and crime variables are greater than the effect caused by an increase of one standard deviation in the real interest rate.Practical implicationsThe findings reveal that a stable economic environment with economic growth is as important to business confidence as the adoption of policies aimed at increasing public security through the fight against crime and violence.Originality/valueIf on the one hand the literature provides evidence that crime is harmful to the economy, on the other hand no study has so far analyzed the impact of crime and violence on business confidence. This type of analysis is relevant since confidence is an important aspect in the expectation formation process and thus to production and investment decisions and economic activity. Thus, this study is the first to analyze the effects of crime and violence on business confidence and consequently, the first to explore the consequences of crime on the economy through the expectations channel.