Uncertainty and Its Discontents: Worldviews in World Politics. Edited by Peter J. Katzenstein. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022. 320p. $105.00 cloth, $34.99 paper
In: Perspectives on politics, Band 21, Heft 2, S. 793-795
ISSN: 1541-0986
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In: Perspectives on politics, Band 21, Heft 2, S. 793-795
ISSN: 1541-0986
In: International politics reviews, Band 6, Heft 1, S. 10-14
ISSN: 2050-2990
In: Journal of global security studies, Band 1, Heft 1, S. 102-106
ISSN: 2057-3189
In: The New Power Politics, S. 19-38
In: New Power Politics: Networks, Governance, and Global Security, ed. Deborah Avant and Oliver Westerwinter. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, Forthcoming
SSRN
In: Political science quarterly: a nonpartisan journal devoted to the study and analysis of government, politics and international affairs ; PSQ, Band 126, Heft 1, S. 147-148
ISSN: 1538-165X
In: Political science quarterly: PSQ ; the journal public and international affairs, Band 126, Heft 1, S. 147-149
ISSN: 0032-3195
In: International security, Band 30, Heft 2, S. 153-187
ISSN: 1531-4804
The nuclear nonproliferation regime has come under attack from proliferation determinists, who argue that resolute proliferants connected by decentralized networks can be stopped only through the use of aggressive export controls or regime change. Proliferation pragmatists counter that nuclear aspirants are neither as resolved nor as advanced as determinists claim. A technical review of recent proliferators' progress reveals that Iran, North Korea, and Libya (before it renounced its nuclear program) have been unable to significantly cut development times; the evidence that these regimes are dead set on proliferating and cannot be persuaded to give up their nuclear programs is not compelling. Because these states lack tacit knowledge, the most effective way to dissolve the hub-and-spoke or star-shaped structures of their nuclear and ballistic missile networks is to target the hubs-that is, second-tier proliferators such as Pakistan that have assisted these states with their nuclear and missile programs. Past strategies aimed at dissuading proliferants have been most successful when they combine diplomatic, social, and economic benefits with credible threats and clear red lines. The United States should therefore use these strategies instead of regime change to target current and potential hub states to halt further proliferation.
In: International security, Band 30, Heft 2, S. 153-187
ISSN: 0162-2889
World Affairs Online
In: International security, Band 45, Heft 2, S. 140-169
ISSN: 1531-4804
In "Hiroshima in Iran: What Americans Really Think about Using Nuclear Weapons and Killing Noncombatants," a pathbreaking survey of attitudes toward the laws of war published in the summer 2017 issue of International Security, Scott Sagan and Benjamin Valentino found that Americans are relatively insensitive to the targeting of civilian populations and to international norms and taboos against the use of nuclear weapons. We replicated a key question of this study, where respondents were asked if they would support saturation bombing an Iranian city to end a war. We also introduced some variations into the experiment to directly measure any potential influence of international norms and laws. Overall, our quantitative and qualitative findings are more optimistic than those of Sagan and Valentino's study: Americans do strongly believe it is wrong to target civilians. And in a real-life scenario such as this, a majority would likely oppose such a bombing. These findings suggest, however, that much depends on how survey questions are structured in measuring those preferences and whether legal or ethical considerations are part of any national conversation about war policy.
In: Oxford University Press Handbook on Political Networks, Forthcoming
SSRN
In: Intelligence and national security, Band 29, Heft 3, S. 357-386
ISSN: 1743-9019
In: International security, Band 45, Heft 2, S. 140-169
ISSN: 0162-2889
World Affairs Online
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 53, Heft 2, S. 302-328
ISSN: 1552-8766
Studies of nuclear proliferation share five serious problems. First, nuclear programs' initiation and completion dates are ambiguous and difficult to code, but findings are rarely subjected to sufficient robustness tests using alternative codings. Second, independent variables overlook important factors such as prestige and bureaucratic power and often use poor proxies for concepts such as the nonproliferation regime. Third, methodologies and data sets should be tightly coupled to empirical questions but are instead often chosen for convenience. Fourth, some findings provide insights already known or believed to be true. Fifth, findings can ignore or gloss over data crucial for policy making and wider debates. This article reviews new quantitative research on nuclear proliferation, noting improved analysis and lingering problems. It highlights the 1999 Kargil war to explore dangers of relying on stock data sets and the need for research on statistical outliers. It concludes with a future research agenda aimed at correcting problems and a cautionary note regarding hasty application of quantitative results to policy making.
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 53, Heft 2, S. 302
ISSN: 0022-0027, 0731-4086