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In the demographic literature on developing countries, studies of mortality perceptions are conspicuous by their absence. Perhaps it has been assumed that when mortality declines, the decline will be quickly recognized by individuals and will then influence their demographic decisions. The possibility of substantial lags and biases in risk perception, which cause individual perceptions to diverge from the changing empirical realities, has not been much considered. Yet studies in cognitive and social psychology indicate that individual mortality perceptions are likely to be diffuse and may well be biased upward in relation to the declining empirical risks. If individuals are poorly equipped to recognize mortality decline, so too may be social groups—social learning will not necessarily correct individual misapprehensions. This note discusses the perceptual limitations that may delay recognition of mortality decline and examines the implications for demographic behavior in three areas: modern health care, fertility control, and children's schooling.

SummaryDynamic models of contraceptive use fill a theoretical gap. They bring behavioural content to the mathematically elegant Markov models of family building. They meet the criterion that Bulatao (1989) advances that method use, discontinuation and switching be considered not in isolation, but with reference to individual reproductive goals. Dynamic models help to link the literature on method choice with the literature on method effectiveness. These theoretical advantages are, at present, counter-balanced by empirical limitations. This article explores the theoretical and empirical underpinnings of dynamic contraceptive choice models.

Soziologische Untersuchung über die Bedeutung des Ausbildungsniveaus als Determinante des Heiratsverhaltens von Frauen in Korea, Indonesien und Malaysia. (DÜI-Bsn)

The authors enquire how the schooling levels of husband and wife come to be associated with each other through the marriage market. The Kiefer-Neumann model of labor market search is adapted to martial search, the aim being to explain both the positive sorting on education levels for spouses, and the positive relationship between female schooling and age at first marriage. World Fertility Survey data for Indonesia, Korea, and Malaysia are employed in the analyses. (DSE)

FrontMatter -- Pravin Visaria (1937-2001) -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Executive Summary -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Why Location Matters -- 3 Urban Population Change: A Sketch -- 4 Urban Population Dynamics: Models, Measures, and Forecasts -- 5 Diversity and Inequality -- 6 Fertility and Reproductive Health -- 7 Mortality and Morbidity: Is City Life Good for Your Health? -- 8 The Urban Economy Transformed -- 9 The Challenge of Urban Governance -- 10 Looking Ahead -- References -- Appendices -- A Concepts and Definitions of Metropolitan Regions -- B Mathematical Derivations -- C Linking DHS Surveys to United Nations City Data -- D United Nations Estimates and Projections -- E Measuring Relative Poverty with DHS Data -- F Recommendations for the Demographic and Health Surveys -- Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff -- Index -- The Committee on Population.