Suchergebnisse

En cuanto al efecto de la geografía en el comportamiento socialmente violento, este estudio introduce la idea de que la fragmentación geográfica está asociada con más terrorismo, dada su cercana relación con el role del gobierno y las condiciones socioeconómicas de las personas. Nosotros consideramos un panel de 128 países entre 1971 y 2005 usando metodologías para datos de conteo. Esto nos permite proveer evidencia robusta de un efecto consistente, incluso cuando diferentes controles son incluidos. Nuestra estimación de referencia indica que un país 1% más geográficamente fragmentado es asociado con un incremento de 1.38 en el promedio de número de ataques terroristas. ; Regarding the effect of geography on social violent behavior, this study introduces the idea that Geographic Fragmentation is associated with more terrorism, given its close relationship with the role of the government and socioeconomic conditions of people. We consider a panel of 128 countries between 1971 and 2005 using count data methodologies. This allows us to provide robust evidence for a consistent effect, even when different controls are included. Our baseline estimate indicates that one country with a 1% higher measure of Geographic Fragmentation is associated with an increment of 1.38 in the number of terrorist attacks on average.

This paper suggests that societies exhibiting a large degree of educational polarization among its populace are systematically more likely to slip into civil conflict and civil war. Intuitively, political preferences and beliefs of highly educated citizens are likely to differ fundamentally from those of uneducated citizens. We propose an index of educational polarization and test its predictive power in explaining the likelihood of civil conflict and civil war, analyzing 146 countries (equivalent to over 93 percent of the world population) from 1950 to 2014. Our results produce strong evidence for a positive, statistically powerful, and economically sizeable relationship. In our benchmark estimation, a one standard deviation increase in educational polarization is associated with a 4.6 and 3.8 percentage point rise in the chances of civil conflict and civil war, respectively. These results are robust to the inclusion of the conventional control variables, country-fixed effects, and country-specific time trends.

After introducing a measure for educational polarization (EduPol ), this paper presents a theoretical framework to understand whether and how EduPol may affect the contest for power in society. The model suggests that societies with high degrees of EduPol (i.e., substantial shares with either no or university-level education) are systematically more prone to civil unrest. We test this prediction on four measures of civil unrest: Political instability, domestic terrorism, civil conflict, and civil war. Our empirical estimations produce evidence consistent with this hypothesis as all four phenomena are positively associated with EduPol at the beginning of the respective period, exhibiting meaningful magnitudes. These results prevail when accounting for (i) potentially confounding factors, (ii) country- and time-fixed effects, (iii) economic inequality, (iv) ethnic and religious polarization and fractionalization, and (v) numerous alternative estimations and outcome variables.