Suchergebnisse

This paper analyzes the evolution of East Asian monetary policy frameworks over the past two decades, chiefly in response to shocks from the Asian financial crisis of 1997 - 1998 and the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007 - 2009. The Asian financial crisis showed the importance of exchange rate flexibility and credible policy frameworks, leading to increased central bank independence, greater focus on inflation policy and more flexible exchange rates. A key lesson of the GFC was the importance of containing systemic financial risk and the need for a "macroprudential" approach to surveillance and regulation that can identify system-wide risks and take appropriate actions to maintain financial stability. Emerging economies face particular challenges because of their underdeveloped financial systems and vulnerability to volatile international capital flows, especially "sudden stops" or reversals of capital inflows. The paper reviews the history of East Asian monetary policy frameworks since 1990; describes current monetary policy frameworks, including issue of price versus financial stability for a central bank and the policies a central bank can use to manage financial stability; the monetary policy transmission mechanism based on financial linkages and financial deepening; assesses policy outcomes including inflation targeting and responses to the "Impossible Trinity"; and makes overall conclusions. The paper finds that East Asian central banks have generally managed inflation and growth well over the past decade, but the difficulties faced by central banks of advanced countries in the aftermath of the GFC suggests that not all problems have been solved yet.

The adoption of quantitative easing (QE) policy by the United States (US) Federal Reserve Bank since early 2009 has aroused widespread concerns in Asia and elsewhere regarding its possible impact in terms of the weakening of the US dollar and stimulating capital outflows to emerging economies that might increase inflationary pressures in them. This report investigates possible impacts of US quantitative easing policy on Asian economies and financial markets. Our basic approach is to take the period of November 2009-October 2010, when no quantitative easing took place, as a baseline period against which we can compare the effects of quantitative easing on monetary flows during the QE1 and QE2 periods. We estimate that about 40% of the increase in the US monetary base in the QE1 period leaked out in the form of increased gross private capital outflows and about one-third leaked out during the first two quarters of the QE2 period. An excess private financial capital inflow to Emerging Asia of $9 billion per quarter was estimated for the first two quarters of the QE2 period, which was relatively consistent with the estimated amounts of the excess increases in foreign exchange reserves and the monetary base in the region during that period. However, this amount is small, and hence was unlikely to have a significant impact on financial markets, economic activity or inflation. We also investigate the impacts of QE policy on regional bond yields and exchange rates using event window analysis, and find that the greatest impacts were a stronger Korean won and lower bond yields in Indonesia.

The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007 - 2009 has called the export-led growth model of Asian economies into question. This paper describes the contribution that macroeconomic policy can make to promote a rebalancing of growth away from dependence on exports to developed economies to a more sustainable pattern of growth centered on domestic and regional demand. This represents a significant departure from the traditional uses of macroeconomic policy to stabilize the economic cycle and achieve stable and low inflation. The evidence suggests that macroeconomic policy can successfully contribute to growth rebalancing. Policy measures not only can affect aggregate demand directly, but can also affect it indirectly via their microeconomic impacts on private sector behavior. Although in the long-term fiscal policy should be balanced to maintain government debt stability and avoid crowding out of private investment, there may be substantial scope to expand monetary and fiscal policy in the medium-term to offset the deflationary effects of an appreciating currency during periods of current account reversal. Previous experience suggests that most of the needed stimulus can be provided by monetary policy, with only a supplementary role to be played by fiscal policy. Moreover, Asian economies with large current account surpluses tend to have sufficient fiscal space. The evidence suggests that excessive savings rather than insufficient investment is the main factor behind high current account surpluses in Asian economies. This implies that measures to encourage consumption, either by raising the level of household disposable income or reducing the savings rate are likely to have the highest payoff in terms of reducing imbalances. Increased spending on social protection, including health insurance, unemployment insurance and pensions, as well as investment in education, are seen as key ways to reduce household demand for precautionary savings. Governments can raise investment spending directly through increased government investment, especially infrastructure investment. There also may be large payoffs to making investments to improve the investment climate, thereby encouraging private investment. Cuts in corporate tax rates and government support for deepening of financial markets can also encourage investment, including improving the infrastructure for corporate bond markets, developing credit databases and other infrastructure for SMEs, and developing the infrastructure for microfinance. Cuts in export subsidies and foreign exchange intervention can cut net exports directly. Improvement of frameworks for macroeconomic and financial stability can also support domestic demand by reducing uncertainty and the need for precautionary savings. This includes giving more explicit weight to financial stability as an objective of monetary policy, developing a macroprudential framework for financial surveillance and regulation, and refining policy tools for management of capital flows.

Contents: Preface -- Part I Frameworks for central-local government relations -- 1. Frameworks for central-local government relations and fiscal sustainability / Peter J. Morgan and Long Q. Trinh -- 2. Looking beyond conventional intergovernmental fiscal frameworks: principles, realities, and neglected issues / Paul Smoke -- Part II Mechanisms for Promoting Fiscal Sustainability at the Local Government Level -- 3. Federalism, fiscal space, and public investment spending: do fiscal rules impose hard budget constraints? / Pinaki Chakraborty -- 4. Fiscal equalization schemes and subcentral government borrowing / Salvador Barrios and Diego Martínez-López -- 5. How well do subnational borrowing regulations work? / Jorge Martinez-Vazquez and Violeta Vulovic -- Part III Country studies of central-local government relations -- 6. The fiscal risk of local government revenue in the People's Republic of China / Ziying Fan and Guanghua Wan -- 7. Key issues of central and local government finance in the People's Republic of China / Qichun Zhang and Shufang Li -- 8. Government decentralization program in Indonesia / Anwar Nasution -- 9. Case study of central and local government finance in Japan / Shun-ichiro Bessho -- 10. Fiscal decentralization and local budget deficits in Viet Nam: an empirical analysis / Peter J. Morgan and Long Q. Trinh -- Part IV Behavioral implications of central-local government relations -- 11. Debt dynamics, fiscal deficit, and stability in government borrowing in India: a dynamic panel analysis / Panchanan Das -- 12. Forms of government decentralization and institutional quality: evidence from a large sample of nations / Rajeev K. Goel and James W. Saunoris -- Index.

The Asian financial crisis (1997 - 1998) and the global financial crisis (2007 - 2009) highlighted the potential value of financial regionalism, i.e., regional-level cooperation in financial policy. This paper argues that there is a mediating role for regional-level institutions of financial regulation between national regulators in Asia and global-level institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the Financial Stability Board. This potential role includes: (i) monitoring financial markets and capital flows to identify regional systemic risks such as capital flows; (ii) coordinating financial sector surveillance and regulation to promote regional financial stability; and (iii) cooperating with global-level institutions in rule formulation, surveillance and crisis management. This is particularly important in an environment of increasing financial integration and harmonization in the region. The paper considers experiences of the European Union (EU) and Asia in regional financial cooperation and regulation and draws lessons for Asia. The EU represents the most advanced stage of regional financial integration and regulation in the world today, and can provide valuable lessons for Asia. Asia's greater diversity of financial development and openness requires a more nuanced approach to integration. Despite its shortcomings and slow pace, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economic Community process probably provides the most feasible and relevant model for regulatory cooperation on a voluntary basis. It would be desirable to extend this framework further in Asia, say to the ASEAN+3 countries for a start. Asian economies can also strengthen existing surveillance processes; enhance and diversify the resources, functions and membership of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization and the Macroeconomic Research Office for surveillance and provision of a financial safety net; and create an Asian financial stability dialogue to monitor regional financial markets, facilitate policy dialogue and cooperation, and secure regional financial stability.

The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-08 underlined the importance of maintaining fiscal space and fiscal sustainability. Even though many Asian economies implemented fiscal stimulus policies during the crisis period, their fiscal conditions generally improved rapidly thereafter, and their overall government debt positions, aside from that of Japan, appear strong. This reflects a number of supportive factors, including strong underlying growth, conservative fiscal management, and financial repression that keep interest rates low. Nonetheless, there are a number of reasons to believe that conditions in emerging Asian economies will not always be so supportive. First, economic growth will tend to slow as countries reach higher income levels. Second, many economies will face rapid aging, which will raise old-age-related spending dramatically, while tending to reduce economic dynamism. Third, financial repression is likely to diminish as financial markets develop, making debt management more challenging. The first objective of this paper is to identify long-term issues of fiscal sustainability risk for emerging Asian economies - such as large-scale subsidies, infrastructure investment requirements, aging and social protection spending, contingent liabilities, financial repression, and the exposure of the domestic banking sector to sovereign debt. The second objective is to recommend policies to reduce these risks to sustainability, including improving the balance of revenues and expenditures, implementing more explicit fiscal rules and frameworks, and establishing stronger fiscal surveillance at the national and regional levels.

The Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011 was the biggest earthquake recorded in Japanese seismic history, and the fourth largest recorded in the world. The scope of the disaster far exceeded that of the Hanshin Earthquake of 1995. The repercussions of this disaster spread far beyond the geographical areas directly affected. For example, Electric power supply capacity in the Kanto area, which accounts for about 40% of Japanese gross domestic product (GDP), fell at one stage by about 40% from the normal peak - a severe constraint on economic activity, and the supply of nuclear-generated electric power has largely been cut off since then. Production supply chains were significantly disrupted, not only in Japan, but all over Asia. The disaster also highlighted Japan's many other structural challenges besides reconstruction needs, including persistently low growth, population aging and low fertility, burgeoning government debt, declining international competitiveness, and uncertain energy supplies. Moreover, the global financial crisis and the ongoing euro area financial crisis suggest that Japan needs to create its own growth momentum without relying excessively on markets in the United States (US) and Europe. This paper discusses the scope of these challenges and sets out a long-term strategy for overcoming them and putting the Japanese economy on a stable growth path. Domestically, key areas that need to be focused on are supply-side reforms, including support for R&D in high-technology, knowledge-intensive, green growth areas; deregulation to promote growth in service sectors and agriculture; corporate tax reduction; and increased energy security; as well as fiscal and social security reforms to put the public debt to GDP ratio on a sustainable basis. Externally, Japan needs to link its economy firmly with the strong growth track of emerging Asia and its rapidly growing middle class. It needs to promote greater economic links with the rest of Asia, including moves toward an East Asian FTA and support for the TPP that could eventually develop into a trans-Pacific FTAAP.

The increasing occurrence of national, regional, and global financial crises, together with their rising costs and complexity, have increased calls for greater regional and global monetary cooperation. This is particularly necessary in light of volatile capital flow movements that can quickly transmit crisis developments in individual countries to other countries around the world. Global financial safety nets (GFSNs) are one important area for monetary cooperation. This paper reviews the current situation of regional and global monetary cooperation, focusing on financial safety nets, with a view toward developing recommendations for more effective cooperation, especially between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and regional financial arrangements (RFAs). A GFSN should have adequate resources to deal with multiple crises, should be capable of rapid and flexible response, and should not be encumbered by historical impediments such as the IMF stigma that would limit its acceptance by recipient countries. Oversight of a GFSN needs to be based on cooperation between global and regional forums, for example, the G20 and ASEAN+3 or East Asia Summit (EAS). Such a GFSN should include the IMF and RFAs at a minimum, and it is highly recommended to find ways to include central banks as providers of swap lines and multilateral banks as well. The basic principles governing the cooperation of IMF and RFAs include rigorous and even-handed surveillance; respect of independence and decision-making processes of each institution and regional specificities; ongoing collaboration as a way to build regional capacity for crisis prevention; open sharing of information and joint missions where necessary; specialization based on comparative advantage; consistency of lending conditions and conditionality, although with flexibility; respect of the IMF as preferred creditor; subsidiarity; avoidance of moral hazard; and transparency.

A key lesson of the 2007 - 2009 global financial crisis (GFC) was the importance of containing systemic financial risk and the need for a "macroprudential" approach to surveillance and regulation that can identify system-wide risks and take appropriate actions to maintain financial stability. By virtue of their overview of the economy and the financial system and their responsibility for payments and settlement systems, there is a broad consensus that central banks should play a key role in monitoring and regulating financial stability. Emerging economies face additional challenges because of their underdeveloped financial systems and vulnerability to volatile international capital flows, especially "sudden stops" or reversals of capital inflows. This paper reviews the recent literature on this topic and identifies relevant lessons for central banks, especially those in Asia's emerging economies. Major topics discussed include the debate about the definition of financial stability, the consistency of a financial stability objective with the more traditional and well-established central bank objective of price stability, the appropriate governance structure for coordination of macroprudential policy with other financial supervisors and entities, and the appropriate policy instruments to achieve macroprudential policy objectives, including conventional, unconventional, and macroprudential tools. Finally, the paper considers issues involved with regional financial regulatory cooperation. Overall, the report concludes that the "lean versus clean" debate has been resolved largely in favor of the former, and that central banks should have a financial stability mandate and the policy tools to successfully pursue that mandate.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 virus and the resulting falls in demand due both to uncertainty and policy interventions such as lockdowns, "social distancing", and travel restrictions are having a severe impact on Asian economies and hence on Asian households. These negative impacts come through a variety of channels, including loss of employment or reduced working hours, loss of sales and income of a household business, inability to travel to work, increased need to stay at home to look after children or sick household members, higher prices and/or lack of availability of staple items, reduced access to schooling, etc. In order to better understand these impacts, we carried out computer-assisted telephone interviews of households in eight ADB developing member countries: Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Our empirical results suggest that various household characteristics, including household income class (before COVID-19), household demographic factors, and COVID-19-induced factors such as having at least one person who lost their job or being located in lockdown areas, all affected the likelihood of a decline in income. In all countries, having at least one person who lost their job or had reduced working time increases the likelihood of experiencing financial difficulties by 17 percentage points. About 27% of children who stopped attending school could not fully participate in online learning programs due to weak/insufficient internet connections and a lack of digital devices. Two COVID-19-related factors - having at least one person who lost their job or had working hours reduced and experiencing financial difficulties - significantly affect the intensity of online classes taken by children in an average household.