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Voters' Perceptions of Trust in Donald Trump in 2016 and 2019: Implications for Presidential Leadership in the Crises of 2020
In: American behavioral scientist: ABS, Band 65, Heft 3, S. 448-464
ISSN: 1552-3381
This study explored voters' perceptions of Donald Trump regarding their general trust in his presidential leadership. In 2019, a little over 2 years into Trump's first term, Shockley-Zalabak and Morreale administered an online census-representative survey to 1,500 registered voters in all 50 states, examining their trust perceptions of Trump. The purpose of the survey was to explore voters' perceptions of President Donald Trump in three regards: (a) in what ways, if at all, did voters' perceptions change in 2019 by comparison to a similar survey conducted by these researchers in 2016; (b) in what ways might any changes in voters' perceptions be a function of voter demographics; and (c) in what ways might any changes in voters' perceptions be related to five critical drivers that underlie trust? The findings of this study support other polls and the more popular press conclusions that Donald Trump is a divisive individual who has retained a generally low-trust evaluation throughout his political career. The demographic divides evidenced in 2016 remained in 2019 and shifted to more polarized and more extreme positions. In other words, those who in 2016 had evaluated Trump most favorably increased their favorability ratings, while those distrusting Trump increased in that distrust. Finally, because of the unpreceded crises of the global pandemic, economic crisis, and racial tensions of 2020, this study's findings are used to postulate about the implications of presidential trust or the lack therefore during the first half of 2020.
Voters' Perceptions of Trust in 2016 Presidential Candidates, Clinton and Trump: Exploring the Election's Outcome
In: American behavioral scientist: ABS, Band 63, Heft 7, S. 856-887
ISSN: 1552-3381
This study explored voters' perceptions of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump regarding their general trust in the two 2016 presidential candidates, voters' demographics, five underlying drivers of trust, and important campaign issues. The study also examined how perceptions of trust on issues were evidenced in the popular vote and in key swing states and the Electoral College. The study used two online census-representative surveys to examine registered voters' perceptions: one survey of 1,500 respondents conducted immediately before the first presidential debate (September 7-15, 2016) and a second survey of a different sample of 1,500 immediately after the third debate (October 20-31), 2016. Analysis of the results confirmed relatively low-trust levels for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump and an electorate divided demographically about their trust in the two candidates. The five trust drivers yielded statistically significant differences between the candidates. Clinton was evaluated as more competent, concerned, and reliable, and a person with whom participants identified. With the second survey, Trump statistically surpassed Clinton for openness and honesty. Regarding the three issues of most importance in the campaign, Clinton and Trump had equivalent trust evaluations for dealing with the U.S. economy/jobs, but Trump was more trusted regarding terrorism/national security and Clinton was more trusted regarding health care. The overall trust evaluations for Clinton, coupled with intentions to vote, contribute to understanding Clinton's popular vote victory. However, the importance of terrorism/national security in swing states and Trump's trust advantage on that issue contributes to understanding the Electoral College vote by comparison with the popular vote.