Suchergebnisse

PurposeOil price shocks greatly impact the global economy, but the effects vary among countries. While higher oil prices benefit oil-exporting countries, they harm the economic performance of oil-importing nations, and vice versa for lower oil prices. However, economic relations, such as trade, can mitigate the impacts of oil price shocks on both groups. In this paper, the authors aim at estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the major net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries while accounting for international trade.Design/methodology/approachThe authors derive a reduced form of a macro model and set up a Panel VAR model to estimate the direct and indirect impacts of oil price shocks on economic growth. The sample includes data on macroeconomic variables from 30 oil-exporting and oil-importing countries that comprise more than 73 percent of the world's economy. The authors construct the spillover variables using bilateral trade matrix. To control for institutional and structural variations across the countries, they are divided into four groups of developed and developing oil-exporting and oil-importing countries.FindingsThe results reveal that all oil-exporting countries have significantly benefited from oil price shocks, although trade has dampened the effect. The positive growth effect has been more pronounced in oil-exporting developing countries. The impact of oil price shocks on oil-importing countries has been negative with a one-year delay, but not statistically significant, and trade has only had a small effect. The effect has been more substantial in oil-importing developing countries.Research limitations/implicationsOne of the limitations of this study is the focus on trade as the main spillover channel. Given the data availability, other channels such as foreign investment and financial markets can also be included in future studies.Practical implicationsRemoving trade restrictions would help both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries to mitigate the negative impacts of the oil price shocks. However, the asymmetric oil-macroeconomy relationship across oil-exporting and oil-importing countries puts oil-exporting countries in a more vulnerable position as they cannot rely on trade with oil-importing countries to reduce the negative impacts of lower oil prices on their growth. Therefore, it is crucial for oil-exporting countries to reassess their oil-dependent development plans and invest their oil revenues in non-oil sectors to diversity their economies and prepare for a future with reduced dependence on oil.Social implicationsThe recent technological advances, structural changes, and increasing energy efficiency suggest that major oil-importing countries will become less dependent on oil in near future. As a result, oil-exporting countries will also need to undergo structural changes in order to sustain their income level. These significant changes will have important social implications, particularly in the labor market, during the transition, for which preparation will be necessary.Originality/valueWhile the literature on the total impact of oil price shocks on either oil-exporting or oil-importing countries is rich, studies on their spillover impacts are limited. Recent research has shown that trade and migration can affect the impact of oil price shock on the economy in federated countries such as Canada. However, the trade effect on oil price shocks in the international level, where countries are subject to different regulations/restrictions and institutional variations, remains scarce. By considering the trade relationship between different groups of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, the authors aim to contribute to the literature of the global impacts of oil price shocks on the world economy.

PurposeThe objective of this paper is twofold as follows: first, it explores the relationship between economic growth and the environment in the context of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in Iran, as a semi-industrialized and largest developing economy in the Middle East. Second, it investigates the effectiveness of government spending on environmental protection.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses the ecological footprint data and an ARDL model to gauge the income and government spending effects on environmental improvement. This method avoids the problems associated with using the regression including a squared income.FindingsThe results find no evidence for a turning point in the income–pollution relationship and no significant impact of government spending on reducing footprint. We conjecture that the structure of the economy and the weak institutional quality may explain the results.Research limitations/implicationsThis includes limited time series data on institutional quality indices and their small variations over time.Practical implicationsCreating an environmental fund using the oil windfall and applying environmental tax/subsidies policies will help address increasing environmental challenges in energy-rich developing countries. Education and public awareness about environmental problems and their impacts on the standard of living are also nonexpensive but effective ways to increase citizen's engagement towards improving environment.Social implicationsThe EKC may take different forms in various countries depending on their economic structure and institution qualities.Originality/valueThe paper uses the ARDL method rather than a commonly used regression with a squared income to estimate the EKC. It also uses ecological footprint as a measure of environmental damage. Exploring government effectiveness in managing public good is also novel in the empirical literature.

The book shows that the implementation of a sustainable energy strategy in Iran provides the opportunity for further economic and social development. In this context, the aim of the book is to provide some of the analyses needed to rethink the country's energy strategy and to grasp the chances. The authors hope to make a contribution to the emerging and rapidly growing discussion on better energy alternatives and the respective opportunities for investment, innovation and modernization. The work presented in the book should provide ideas for such opportunities and create a vision of how this could contribute towards developing a more sustainable, efficient and prosperous future energy system for Iran. The book is based on long-term academic cooperation between Iranian researchers from several universities and the Iranian Energy Association and German researchers from the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Büro Ö-quadrat and the University of Osnabrück. The book in hand is an important result of the collaboration. So its publication lends itself to taking stock of these twelve years of continued cooperation. ; Das Buch "Sustainable Energy Strategy for Iran" zeigt auf, dass die Umsetzung einer nachhaltigen Energiestrategie in Iran die Chance auf wirtschaftliche und soziale Weiterentwicklung bietet. Auf Basis der im Buch durchgeführten Analysen soll es möglich sein, die landesspezifische Energiestrategie zu hinterfragen und mit Blick auf die dargestellten Lösungsvorschläge zu überdenken. Das Buch kann einen Beitrag zur zunehmenden Diskussion über alternative Energien und damit verbundene Möglichkeiten in den Bereichen Investition, Innovation und Modernisierung leisten. Es versucht eine Vision zu entwerfen, wie eine veränderte energiepolitische Strategie zur Entwicklung eines nachhaltigeren, effizienteren und erfolgreichen zukünftigen iranischen Energysystems beitragen kann. Das Buch basiert auf einer langjährigen Zusammenarbeit zwischen iranischen Wissenschaf­tler(inne)n verschiedener Universitäten und der Iranian Energy Association sowie deutschen Wissenschaftler(inne)n vom Wuppertal Institut, dem Büro Ö-quadrat und der Universität Osnabrück. Dieses Buch stellt ein wichtiges Ergebnis und eine Zusammenfassung der Arbeiten der zwölfjährigen Kooperation dar.

PurposeThe Iranian banking industry has been greatly affected by dramatic changes in macroeconomic conditions over the past several decades owing to volatile oil revenues, changing fiscal and monetary policies, and the imposition of US sanctions. The main objective of this paper is to estimate potential credit losses in the Iranian banking sector due to macroeconomic shocks and assess the minimum economic capital requirements under the baseline and distressed scenarios. The paper also contrasts the applications of linear and nonlinear models in estimating the impacts of macroeconomic shocks on financial institutions.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a multistage approach to derive the portfolio loss distribution for banks. In the first step, the dynamic relationship between the selected macroeconomic variables are estimated using a VAR model to generate the stress scenarios. In the second step, the default probabilities are estimated using a quantile regression model and the results are compared with those of the conventional linear models. Finally, the default probabilities are simulated for a one-year time horizon using Monte-Carlo method and the portfolio loss distribution is calculated for hypothetical portfolios. The expected loss includes the loss given default for loans drawn randomly and uniformly distributed and exposed at default values when loans are assigned a fixed value.FindingsThe results indicate that the loss distributions under all scenarios are skewed to the right, with the linear model results being very similar to those of quantile at the 50% quantile, but very unlike those at the 10% and 90% quantiles. Specifically, the quantile model for the 90% (10%) quantile generates estimates of minimum economic capital requirement that are considerably higher (lower) than those using the linear model.Research limitations/implicationsThe study has focused on credit risk because of lack of data on other types of risk at individual bank level. The future studies can estimate the aggregate economic capital using a risk aggregation approach and a panel data (not presently available), which could further improve the accuracy of the estimates.Practical implicationsThe fiscal and monetary authorities in developing countries, specially oil-exporting countries, can follow the risk assessment approach to assess the health of their banking system and adapt policies to mitigate the impacts of large macroeconomic shocks on their financial markets.Originality/valueThis is the first paper estimating the portfolio loss distribution for the Iranian banks under turbulent macroeconomic conditions using linear and nonlinear models. The case study can be applied to other developing and emerging countries, particularly those highly dependent on natural resources, prone to extreme macroeconomic shocks.