To what extent real exchange rate appreciation contributed to the shrinking of China's trade surpluses following the global financial crises?
In: Research in economics: Ricerche economiche, Band 73, Heft 3, S. 235-242
ISSN: 1090-9451
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In: Research in economics: Ricerche economiche, Band 73, Heft 3, S. 235-242
ISSN: 1090-9451
West African savannas are depicted in the climate change literature as the "burn center" of the planet. This paper suggests that this representation is based on a misunderstanding of burning intensity and the nature of savanna environments. It is argued that burning is not as destructive as perceived and that its effects on vegetation change are more complex than believed. The case study of Katiali examines how farmers and herders use fire as a tool for Sudanian savanna management, and how these practices modify burning regimes and savanna ecosystems over time. The study also investigates the implications of changing burning regimes and vegetation dynamics on greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration of carbon. The theoretical framework of this research builds upon political ecology, which examines the natural resource management practices of ordinary farmers and herders with emphasis on historical-geographical patterns of environmental change, local knowledge, and local specific ecologies. The research was conducted during one dry season from late October 2007 to May 2008 in the Sudanian savanna of northern Côte d'Ivoire. Data were collected through field observations, individual and group interviews, and household surveys. Weather station data were recorded daily. Findings reveal that the Sudanian savanna is a complex environment composed of a mixture of trees, shrubs, grasses, and crops. This diversity is important to recognize in modeling the impact of savanna burning on greenhouse gas emissions. Results also show that farmers and herders increasingly set fires earlier in the dry season to protect orchards and to promote grass regrowth for grazing. Early dry season burning favors the expansion of trees in the Sudanian savannas. The transition demonstrates a shift to a more wooded vegetation cover that could potentially sequester more carbon dioxide than is presently attributed to the system.
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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.
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