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Cover Page -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- Figures -- I. Introduction -- II. Stylized Facts -- 1. Nordic Trade -- 2. Nordic FDI Flows -- III. Description of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) -- IV. Spillovers in the Nordic Countries -- A. Decrease in Aggregate Demand in the Euro Area -- 3. Decline in Euro Area Demand -- 4. Decline in Euro Area Demand -- 5. Decline in Euro Area Demand -- B. Grand Bargain Scenario -- 6. The Euro Area 'Grand Bargain' -- 7. The Euro Area 'Grand Bargain' -- 8. The Euro Area 'Grand Bargain' -- C. Drop in the Global Energy Price -- 9. Global Energy Price Collapse -- 10. Global Energy Price Collapse -- 11. Global Energy Price Collapse -- D. Russia Sanctions Scenario -- 12. Russian Sanctions with Russian Energy Supply Cut -- 13. Russian Sanctions with Russian Energy Supply Cut -- V. Lessons and Policy Implications -- References -- Footnotes.

Given the backdrop of pressing infrastructure needs, this paper argues that higher German public investment would not only stimulate domestic demand in the near term and reduce the current account surplus, but would also raise output over the longer-run as well as generate beneficial regional spillovers. While time-to-build delays can weaken the impact of the stimulus in the short-run, the expansionary effects of higher public investment are substantially strengthened with an accommodative monetary policy stance-as is typical during periods of economic slack. The current low-interest rate envi

With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and model-based approaches. While fiscal multipliers have been modest in the past, as can be expected in a small open emerging economy, the effect on output is not independent of the speed of adjustment and the specific consolidation measures used. The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is larger

In the evolving analysis of global imbalances, the possibility that countries will resort to increased protectionism is often mentioned but rarely analyzed. This paper attempts to fill that gap, examining the macroeconomic implications of a shift to protectionist policies through the lens of a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy that encompasses four regional blocs. Simulation exercises are carried out to assess the consequences of imposing uniform and discriminatory tariffs on trading partners as well as the consequences of tariff retaliation. We also discuss a scenario in which a "globalization backlash" lowers the degree of competition in import-competing sectors, and compare the implications of higher markups in the product and labor markets.