Suchergebnisse

In voting behavior studies, the effect of religion on partisan choice relative to psychological factors and political economy has not been conclusively determined. In Indonesian politics, religion has frequently been understood as a typology of Muslim religiosity, i.e. santri versus abangan, or orthodox versus heterodox Muslim. This conception does not significantly predict election outcomes. The effect of religious identity, i.e. Islam versus other religion, on voting is not discernable so far because it has not been systematically tested. The 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election is a rare instance in which the contestants have different religious identities in an almost homogenous society. This setting is ideal. This essay reports the results of a test from public opinion surveys prior to and an exit poll on election day. The result verified that religion explains very significantly how the Muslim candidate won. Political economy and partisanship, however, save the incumbent from a big loss. These findings have more systematically revised the existing comparative and Indonesian literature on the relationship between religion and voting behavior.[Dalam studi perilaku memilih, perbandingan pengaruh agama, faktor psikologis, maupun ekonomi politik, terhadap pilihan partai atau calon dalam pemilihan umum belum konklusif. Dalam politik Indonesia, agama sering difahami dalam tipologi keberagamaan santri versus abangan, atau Muslim puritan versus Muslim sinkretis. Konsepsi agama ini tidak punya pengaruh signifikan terhadap perilaku memilih dalam pemilihan umum sejauh ini. Sementara itu pengaruh identitas agama, yakni Islam versus agama lainnya, terhadap perilaku memilih sejauh ini juga tidak banyak terlihat karena belum teruji secara sistematik. Pemilihan gubernur DKI Jakarta 2017 adalah contoh kasus langka di Indonesia di mana calon-calon gubernurnya punya identitas agama berbeda sementara pemilihnya hampir homogen dilihat dari identitas agamanya. Keadaan ini ideal untuk menguji pengaruh identitas agama terhadap perilaku memilih. Artikel ini merupakan laporan hasil uji perbandingan pengaruh identitas agama, faktor psikologis, dan ekonomi-politik pada perilaku memilih gubernur, dan bersandar pada data survei opini publik sebelum dan di hari pemilihan. Hasilnya membuktikan bahwa identitas agama sangat mempengaruhi bagimana calon gubernur beragama Islam menang dalam pemilihan tersebut. Namun demikian, pengaruh ekonomi-politik dan identitas kepartaian menolong petahana yang non-Muslim dari kekalahan telak. Temuan-temuan ini merevisi referensi studi politik perbandingan dan Indonesia terkait hubungan agama dan perilaku memilih.]

Once a fully free country according to Freedom House, Indonesia has declined to partly free in the last seven years, indicating that the largest Muslim democracy in the world is deconsolidating. The decrease of freedom in Indonesia is believed to be associated with intolerance toward religious minorities, specifically by Muslims toward non-Muslims. Previous studies found that Indonesians are in general intolerant. However, those studies ignore factors which have the potential to strengthen religio-polititical tolerance. My contribution is to fill this empty space by explaining the intolerance. The potential explanatory factors are political, economic, and security conditions, institutional engagement, political engagement, and democratic values. Based on a nationwide public opinion survey, this study reveals new findings about which factors are more crucial to strengthening religio-political tolerance. Muslim religiosity affects significantly and negatively religio-political tolerance. However, economic, political, and security conditions, institutional engagement, political engagement, democratic values, and Javanese ethnicity more significantly explain the tolerance. If these factors prevail over religion and religiosity, tolerance will improve.

We present findings from eight nationally representative surveys conducted during the 2019 Indonesian presidential campaign, in which we measured voters' reported belief in prominent pieces of misinformation. Younger, better-educated, and wealthier voters were more likely to believe the misinformation. These results are true for stories about both the incumbent (Joko Widodo) and the challenger (Prabowo Subianto). These findings represent a significant departure from results in Western Europe and North America, where a surge in misinformation has disproportionately targeted older and less educated voters.

Sebuah kebijakan publik akan efektif jika publik mendukungnya. Hal yang sama berlaku dalam konteks wabah Covid-19. Sejauh ini belum ada studi tentang kebijakan pemerintah Indonesia, khususnya terkait Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB), dan kepatuhan warga terhadapnya. Tulisan ini mengisi kekosongan tersebut dengan bertumpu pada hasil penelitian opini publik nasional tentang sikap dan perilaku publik terkait PSBB dan protokol kesehatan. Hasilnya adalah perilaku dan sikap pada kebijakan tersebut berhubungan dengan latar belakang perilaku politik, kepercayaan pada kemampuan pemerintah menangani Covid-19, status pekerjaan, pendapatan, pendidikan, agama, dan gender. PSBB tidak akan efektif karena jumlah warga yang harus bekerja di luar rumah sangat banyak. Sebaliknya, memberikan subsidi pada warga agar tidak bekerja selama pandemi tetapi tidak jelas kapan akan berakhir, tentu bukan kebijakan yang realistis. Untuk itu, kebijakan mengubah PSBB dengan kembali membolehkan warga bekerja seperti sebelum masa Covid-19 dan disertai protokol kesehatan yang ketat adalah solusi yang lebih realistis. Sosialisasi mendesaknya protokol kesehatan harus dilakukan lewat berbagai kelompok masyarakat dan lewat tokoh-tokoh berpengaruh karena mereka cenderung lebih didengar.

AbstractDespite the introduction of social restrictions designed to stem the spread of COVID-19, many Indonesians have continued to attend places of worship. This poses a major public health threat, as congregational prayer involves large numbers of worshippers gathering under conditions known to enable the spread of the virus. Using a nationally representative survey, we evaluated the efficacy of messages delivered from different authorities in encouraging Indonesians to worship at home. We find no consistent evidence that public health messages change Indonesians' attitudes toward communal prayer or their willingness to forgo communal prayer during the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, however, looking at well-defined subpopulations – non-Muslims and supporters of the president – we find suggestive evidence that messages were effective in increasing the likelihood of individuals to indicate a willingness to forgo communal prayer in the forthcoming week. Our results suggest that public health officials should eschew blanket messaging strategies in favor of more targeted approaches.

Indonesia is the world's third largest democracy (after India and the USA) and the only fully democratic Muslim democracy, yet it remains little known in the comparative politics literature. This book aspires to do for Indonesian political studies what The American Voter did for American political science. It contributes a major new case, the world's largest Muslim democracy, to the latest research in cross-national voting behavior, making the unique argument that Indonesian voters, like voters in many developing and developed democracies, are 'critical citizens' or critical democrats. The analysis is based on original opinion surveys conducted after every national-level democratic election in Indonesia from 1999 to the present by the respected Indonesian Survey Institute and Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting.

Conceptualizing and measuring piety -- Islam and party politics -- Islam and the market -- Islam and the world -- Constructing our survey