Suchergebnisse

This paper analyzes employment in Bolivian registered manufacturing firms during 1988 to 2007, establishing its relationship with labor regulation. Estimating job flows, we find that firms with high temporary worker rates (less labor regulation costs) are those with both higher job reallocation rates and higher net employment growth, and only they contributed to employment growth during the country economic downturn, 1998-1999. In addition, estimating demand functions, we find the following effects of recent changes in labor norms: i) the compulsory basic salary rise in 2006-2009 entailed costs in terms of job losses, 5.6 percent for production workers and 4.8 percent for non-production workers; iii) the major labor costs derived from the new pension law, enacted in 2010, decreased employment demand around 1 percent; and, iv) labor protection policies decreased production workers demand.

We analyzed the impact of currency devaluation on the Bolivian economy, employing a dynamic and extended version of the PEP 1-1 standard model to simulate effects impact on both the main macroeconomic aggregates and the financial stocks and flows of economic agents. We built a new Financial Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2014 and calibrated the model to it. Besides simulating a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate, we also analyzed a policy-response scenario, an external-shock scenario, and a gradual-devaluation scenario. In the policy-response scenario, devaluation was accompanied by a reduction in government expenses (fiscal adjustment); in the external-shock scenario, devaluation came with an increase in the export price of gas (main export commodity); and, in the gradual-devaluation scenario, the exchange-rate policy relaxed gradually. The external-shock scenario dominated the other scenarios in terms of higher average growth and less average unemployment. The fiscal-adjustment scenario, however, dominated in terms of inflation, though it implied an inflationary shock in 2020. ; Facultad de Ciencias Económicas ; Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales