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Economist Ryan Murphy explains divergences between popular and informed opinion on the value of the institutions of the modern world, including globalized markets, science, and pluralism. The public expresses hostility for these institutions both in the voting booth and in their private lives, and even through the marketplace itself.

Abstract
The Economic Freedom of the World report measures five dimensions of economic freedom, one of them being Sound Money. Compared to where it had been in decades for most of the West, inflation skyrocketed in 2021. Yet the indicator which measures inflation in the most recent year barely budged due to how it is specified and parameterized. This paper explores potential improvements on the methodology, although ultimately only modest improvements are achieved over simply changing the value of inflation that corresponds to zero (the lowest index score) in the simplest linear specification.

ABSTRACT: Social scientists have extensively studied the causes of good institutions, including the origins of economic freedom. Results concerning the causes of different kinds of institutions are often similar, often concluding that the geography, environment, and culture are important factors. However, a recent political economy framework suggests that certain dimensions of economic freedom, namely specific dimensions of the size of government (government consumption, transfers and subsidies, and the top marginal tax rate), differ systematically from other dimensions of liberalization. This paper explores these arguments by constructing an index of a set of consensus predictors of institutional quality: ethnic fractionalization (predicts negatively), the natural log of the population size (negatively), absolute latitude (positively), natural resource rents (negatively), the presence of the country in the Americas (negatively), British legal origins (positively), the presence of the country in Eurasia (positively), and island geography (positively). The countries with the "best" fundamentals for institutional quality are Iceland, Ireland, Malta, Finland, and Cyprus, while the five with the "worst" fundamentals are Angola, Nigeria, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Ghana. It then takes this index of "fundamentals" of institutional quality and shows that, although they predict economic liberalism as a whole (as measured by the Economic Freedom of the World index) as they would predict other measures of institutional quality, they predict oppositely (i.e., corresponding to larger governments) for the dimensions of the size of government listed above. The result is congruent with the predictions of the political economy model. Additionally, this result is not contingent on the inclusion of any one of the "fundamental" variables, although natural resource rents and absolute latitude appear to be the most important variables. Countries with considerably more economic freedom than would be predicted by their fundaments include Peru, Singapore, the United States, Chile, and Canada; should deviations from fitted values be seen as presaging future movements in institutions, these countries are the most likely to see upcoming declines. The aforementioned political economy model implies that these findings are the result of complexities involved in the interaction between state capacity and different dimensions of economic liberalization.

AbstractThis paper presents a speculative framework suggesting that prediction markets (or its epistemic cousins such as artificial intelligence or forecasting tournaments) may constitute a break in the expansion of human knowledge in a manner similar to the impact of the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions. Just as the scientific understanding of the natural world facilitated the development of useful technologies to move far faster than what is allowed by blind evolution and tinkering, tools such as prediction markets allow for scientific knowledge to move faster than its current evolutionary process. The intellectual bases for these tools, such as the interpretation of probabilities as bets, are relatively recent additions to human knowledge, which may have significant implications for how we evaluate past thinkers, versus what is now possible or may be possible in the future.

AbstractThis paper assesses how to quantitatively classify countries as conforming to the ideal of an 'open access order' in the spirit of Douglass North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry Weingast's Violence and Social Orders. It does so by taking the harmonic mean of already existing measures of economic freedom, liberal democracy, and state capacity. Thirty-five countries out of 161 in 2020 were assessed to be open access orders. A main dataset is constructed for the years 1950 to present, and a supplementary dataset for select countries is constructed for years back to 1850. Switzerland has the highest index score for open access orders in 2020, is classified to be an open access order continuously since 1950, and is the first country to be classified as an open access order (in 1875).

AbstractThis article follows de Vanssay et al. (2005) in examining the effects of characteristics of constitutions on economic freedom, using data originating in the Database of Political Institutions. With recent data, correlational findings are reproduced and extended. However, introducing almost any degree of identification draws results strongly into question. There are strong reasons against placing confidence in a causal relationship between a broader array of constitutional characteristics and economic freedom. But the variables considered here do not include direct measures of democracy or civil liberties, whose positive effects on economic freedom have stronger support elsewhere in the literature.

AbstractLeeson (2020) objects to the conflation of economics with applied econometrics, and argues that economics instead should be thought of as the implications of the assumption that individuals maximize, i.e. rational choice theory. But, narrowly defining economics in terms of method demands that we ignore alternative theoretical frameworks which potentially hold explanatory power about topics thought of as economics, all for the sake of a definition. I suggest that applying rational choice theory and applying econometrics became the comparative advantage for economists relative to other social scientists by accidents of history. These comparative advantages largely persist. It is reasonable to call applications of both rational choice theory and econometrics to topics outside conventional economic topics 'economics' simply because these applications remain the comparative advantage of economists.

AbstractCan a central bank accidentally provoke changes to a country's political regime? Sumner (2015) proposes that macroeconomic mismanagement on the part of central bank authorities, leading to declines in nominal output, can cause voters to respond with populism at the ballot box. Murphy and Smith (2018) have found evidence for this hypothesis, with populism interpreted as movements away from liberal market institutions. This article extends the hypothesis to macroeconomic mismanagement and its relationship with democratic political institutions. It finds both that recessions foreshadow a lower probability of a dictatorship becoming a democracy, and that a democracy is more likely to become a dictatorship. The relationship with autocratisation is most visible after 15 years, while the negative relationship with democratisation is far more persistent over time. These findings, it must be stressed, are historical and descriptive, not necessarily causal.

PurposeA large empirical literature has found positive effects of economic freedom on economic outcomes, such as output and per capita growth. However, several variables in the index are very likely to decline in conjunction with recessions. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether, in the absence of these variable, whether the positive relationship between economic freedom and economic output remains.Design/methodology/approachThis paper makes use of a dynamic panel to compare the performance of economic freedom with and without variables endogenous to business cycles, which pertain to levels of government spending, rates of inflation, government borrowing and interest rates.FindingsTwo specifications fall in their statistical significance from the 1 to the 10 per cent level when variables relating to inflation are omitted. The worst case considered finds one specification size of the effect is still 66.3 per cent of the effect size of the standard measure of economic freedom.Practical implicationsThese findings are consistent with this kind of endogeneity being a minor problem with the data set when imperfect identification strategies are used, but the issue should be strongly considered when business cycles are pertinent to a research question that makes use of economic freedom data.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the small literature focused on the robustness of the effect of economic freedom on output, while raising a specific concern that has not yet been explicitly addressed.

AbstractThis paper undertakes a descriptive analysis of changes in economic institutions across countries from 2000 to 2016, using Economic Freedom of the World and the "State Economic Modernity" index. This latter index is a recent creation, similar conceptually to state capacity, measuring what can variously be thought of as state building, effectiveness, and economic power. These two indexes are used in concert with one another to classify countries into eight directions of institutional change. Despite recent pessimism, countries besides those at the top world income bracket have continued to liberalize, while wealthy countries have merely stagnated. At the high level aggregates, there is little movement in state economic modernity over this period, although there is considerably heterogeneity among individual countries. Of those measured, Rwanda is the single country to make the greatest movement toward the development benchmark of "Getting to Denmark."

AbstractAccording to popular attitudes in Western democracies, the choice between right‐wing and left‐wing parties is a choice between socialism and unbridled free markets. In contrast, the cold and staid research of academia has frequently concluded that particular political parties do not really matter, as whichever party is elected will be closely tethered to the will of the median voter. This article considers the effects of the ideology of parties in power over the long run (1928–95) on economic freedom in subsequent periods. Right‐wing governments are found to have modest, positive effects on economic freedom, but the effects are not particularly robust. The findings here are consistent with others elsewhere, which conclude that there is minor, uneven evidence of an effect. Nonetheless, historically small effects may not be indicative of the future, should these effects be poorly indicative of today's tumultuous political landscape.

Purpose
This paper aims to address a growing empirical literature which measures the size of the fiscal multiplier at the state and local levels. This literature generally fails to consider the reaction function of the central bank, which typically should be expected to offset local increases in spending by reducing it elsewhere in the currency area. This is true under rather orthodox assumptions, such as an inflation targeting central bank meeting its target.


Design/methodology/approach
The author reviews prominent examples of the literature and establishes the extent to which the empirical methodology avoids the issue he raises. Subsequently, the author discusses its importance.


Findings
Certain papers in the literature, especially Nakamura and Steinsson (2014), are careful about the issue. Most papers reviewed, however, are not.


Practical implications
There are severe limitations to papers using these methodologies. They are either contingent on very specific assumptions regarding central banks or lack policy relevance. Earlier methodologies, such as vector autoregression and the "narrative" method, deserve higher relative credence among methodologies applied to studying the size of the fiscal multiplier.


Originality/value
The current literature either entirely ignores the issue raised here or it is very briefly brushed aside. Considering the orthodoxy of the assumptions, at the very least, the issue deserves far greater recognition in the future. It may demand a broader re-evaluation of the family of methods.

AbstractThis article explores the relationship between country membership in major intergovernmental organisations and economic freedom. While it makes no claims to have found any broad theoretically bound, robust causal mechanism, baseline fixed effects models establish relationships amongst economic freedom and membership in the EU, NATO, WTO, UN, OECD, World Bank, and IMF. Though the results are not simple, the strongest findings are negative relationships with the UN, IMF, and WTO, and positive relationships with the World Bank and possibly the EU.

AbstractI use matched county pairs on either side of US state borders to investigate the causal effects of the Economic Freedom of North America index (EFNA) on local outcomes. This method is similar to Dubeet al. (2010). I construct a panel of county pairs running from 1981–2012 and four measures of outcomes, logged real incomes, logged real per capita incomes, employment, and logged real wages, employing single year and five year differences-in-differences. I find small, but precisely estimated, effects on incomes but mixed effects on wages and employment. All regressions show lowR2. This supports the hypothesis that state-level economic freedom improves capital income or that it attracts capital income across state borders.