Objective. Much is known about voting behavior generally; less is known about voting behavior of African Americans in particular due in part to the overwhelming support of black voters for Democratic candidates. However, some argue that black conservatism on social issues could lead to more Republican voting.Methods. We test this question with a set of data on black voting behavior in a 2004 congressional race where two black candidates ran against each other. We thus hold race of candidate constant and look at the influence of social issues and party identification on black vote choice.Results. We find evidence to suggest that evangelicalism and support for the war in Iraq is related to being Republican, but that Democratic Party identification plays the dominant role in black voter decision making.Conclusions. Black conservatism on at least certain social issues is real and has the potential to influence vote choice, but the influence of Democratic Party allegiance is still a very powerful cue for black voters.
In: Bulletin of the World Health Organization: the international journal of public health = Bulletin de l'Organisation Mondiale de la Santé, Band 90, Heft 10, S. 739-747
Background: Cholera is an endemic disease in certain well-defined areas in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The west of the country, including the mega-city Kinshasa, has been free of cases since mid 2001 when the last outbreak ended. Methods and Findings: We used routinely collected passive surveillance data to construct epidemic curves of the cholera cases and map the spatio-temporal progress of the disease during the first 47 weeks of 2011. We compared the spatial distribution of disease spread to that which occurred in the last cholera epidemic in Kinshasa between 1996 and 2001. To better understand previous determinants of cholera spread in this region, we conducted a correlation analysis to assess the impact of rainfall on weekly health zone cholera case counts between December 1998 and March 2001 and a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) regression analysis to identify factors that have been associated with the most vulnerable health zones within Kinshasa between October 1998 and June 1999. In February 2011, cholera reemerged in a region surrounding Kisangani and gradually spread westwards following the course of the Congo River to Kinshasa, home to 10 million people. Ten sampled isolates were confirmed to be Vibrio cholerae O1, biotype El Tor, serotype Inaba, resistant to trimethoprim-sulfa, furazolidone, nalidixic acid, sulfisoxaole, and streptomycin, and intermediate resistant to Chloramphenicol. An analysis of a previous outbreak in Kinshasa shows that rainfall was correlated with case counts and that health zone population densities as well as fishing and trade activities were predictors of case counts. Conclusion: Cholera is particularly difficult to tackle in the DRC. Given the duration of the rainy season and increased riverine traffic from the eastern provinces in late 2011, we expect further increases in cholera in the coming months and especially within the mega-city Kinshasa. We urge all partners involved in the response to remain alert.
13 Pages, 1 Figure, 4 tables. The authors' affiliations are listed in the Supplementary Appendix, available at NEJM.org. Supplementary Material, available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1800474 ; BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends drug-susceptibility testing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex for all patients with tuberculosis to guide treatment decisions and improve outcomes. Whether DNA sequencing can be used to accurately predict profiles of susceptibility to first-line antituberculosis drugs has not been clear. METHODS: We obtained whole-genome sequences and associated phenotypes of resistance or susceptibility to the first-line antituberculosis drugs isoniazid, rifampin, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide for isolates from 16 countries across six continents. For each isolate, mutations associated with drug resistance and drug susceptibility were identified across nine genes, and individual phenotypes were predicted unless mutations of unknown association were also present. To identify how whole-genome sequencing might direct first-line drug therapy, complete susceptibility profiles were predicted. These profiles were predicted to be susceptible to all four drugs (i.e., pansusceptible) if they were predicted to be susceptible to isoniazid and to the other drugs or if they contained mutations of unknown association in genes that affect susceptibility to the other drugs. We simulated the way in which the negative predictive value changed with the prevalence of drug resistance. RESULTS: A total of 10,209 isolates were analyzed. The largest proportion of phenotypes was predicted for rifampin (9660 [95.4%] of 10,130) and the smallest was predicted for ethambutol (8794 [89.8%] of 9794). Resistance to isoniazid, rifampin, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide was correctly predicted with 97.1%, 97.5%, 94.6%, and 91.3% sensitivity, respectively, and susceptibility to these drugs was correctly predicted with 99.0%, 98.8%, 93.6%, and 96.8% specificity. Of the 7516 isolates with complete phenotypic drug-susceptibility profiles, 5865 (78.0%) had complete genotypic predictions, among which 5250 profiles (89.5%) were correctly predicted. Among the 4037 phenotypic profiles that were predicted to be pansusceptible, 3952 (97.9%) were correctly predicted. CONCLUSIONS: Genotypic predictions of the susceptibility of M. tuberculosis to first-line drugs were found to be correlated with phenotypic susceptibility to these drugs. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.). ; Supported by grants from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1133541, to CRyPTIC, plus separate support to Dr. Rodwell), a Wellcome Trust/Newton Fund–MRC Collaborative Award (200205/Z/15/Z, to CRyPTIC), the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) and NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance at University of Oxford in partnership with Public Health England, the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at Barts, the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at Imperial, the NIHR and NHS England (to the 100,000 Genomes Project, which is managed by Genomics England, a wholly owned company of the U.K. Department of Health), the Wellcome Trust, the Medical Research Council, Public Health England, a grant from the National Science and Technology Key Program of China (2014ZX10003002), a grant from the National Basic Research program of China (2014CB744403), a grant from the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB29020000), a grant from the European Commission Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013, to Borstel under grant agreement 278864 in the framework of the Patho-NGen-Trace project), the German Center for Infection Research (to Borstel), Leibniz Science Campus Evolutionary Medicine of the Lung (EvoLUNG), the Belgian Ministry of Social Affairs (to the Belgian Reference Center for Tuberculosis and Mycobacteria from Bacterial Diseases Service through a fund within the Health Insurance System), the French governmental program "Investing for the Future" (to Genoscreen), a grant from the European Commission Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013, to Genoscreen under grant agreement 278864 in the framework of the Patho-NGen-Trace project), grants from the Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Fund (R015833003, to Dr. Chaiprasert), the Faculty of Medicine, Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University (to Dr. Chaiprasert), a grant from the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO), Spain (SAF2016-77346-R, to Dr. Comas), a grant from the European Research Council (638553-TB-ACCELERATE, to Dr. Comas), a grant from the BC Centre for Disease Control Foundation for Population and Public Health (to Dr. Gardy), a grant from the British Colombia Lung Association (to Dr. Gardy), grants from the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (101237/Z/13/Z and 102541/A/13/Z, to Drs. Wilson and Iqbal [Sir Henry Dale Fellows]), a grant from the National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine Aspiration Fund (NUHSRO/2014/069/AF-New Idea/04, to Drs. Ong and Teo), a European Commission Seventh Framework Program European Genetic Network (EUROGEN) grant (201483, to Dr. Drobniewski), and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health (to Dr. Rodwell). Dr. T. Walker is an NIHR Academic Clinical Lecturer, and Drs. Crook, Peto, and Caulfield are NIHR Senior Investigators. No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported. Disclosure forms provided by the authors are available with the full text of this article at NEJM.org. We thank Stéphanie Duthoy, Carina Hahn, Alamdar Hussain, Yannick Laurent, Mathilde Mairey, Vanessa Mohr, and Mahmood Qadir for technical assistance and George F. Gao, Director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, for directing the Chinese grant and sequencing program ; Peer reviewed