Suchergebnisse

Intro -- Title page -- Table of Contents -- Copyright -- List of Contributors -- Introduction -- Chapter 1. A Global Atlas of Tropical Precipitation Extremes -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Data and Methods -- 3. Global Statistics of Record Rain Amounts -- 4. An Example Case Study: Bay of Bengal -- 5. Future Work -- 6. Concluding Remarks -- Chapter 2. South Asian Monsoon Extremes -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Monsoon "Climate" Extremes -- 3. Monsoon "Weather" Extremes -- 4. Summary -- 5. Materials and Methods -- Chapter 3. South American Monsoon and Its Extremes -- 1. Introduction -- 2. South American Monsoon: General Features and Evolution -- 3. Synoptic and Mesoscale Variability of the SAM -- 4. Climate Variability in the Monsoon Season and Its Influence on Extremes -- 5. Extreme Events During the Monsoon in Different Regions of South America and Case Examples -- 6. Observed Trends Regarding Extremes -- Chapter 4. Precipitation Extremes in the West African Sahel: Recent Evolution and Physical Mechanisms -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Recent Evolution of Rainfall Regime in West Africa -- 3. Space-Time Structure of Precipitation Extremes -- 4. Trends in Precipitation Extremes -- 5. Large-Scale Atmospheric Environment of Extreme Precipitating Events Over the Central Sahel: The Case Study of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso -- 6. Conclusions and Perspectives -- Chapter 5. Evaluating Large-Scale Variability and Change in Tropical Rainfall and Its Extremes -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Physical Constraints on Changes in Tropical Precipitation -- 3. Observed Current Changes in Tropical Climate -- 4. Evaluation of Current and Future Changes in Extreme Rainfall -- 5. Conclusions -- Chapter 6. Extreme El Niño Events -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Definition of Extreme El Niño -- 3. Theory and Modeling -- 4. Impact of Extremes El Niño Events -- 5. Climate Change and Natural Variability

Abstract
Climate change is adversely impacting the burden of diarrheal diseases. Despite significant reduction in global prevalence, diarrheal disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among young children in low- and middle-income countries. Previous studies have shown that diarrheal disease is associated with meteorological conditions but the role of large-scale climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon anomaly is less understood. We obtained 13 years (2002–2014) of diarrheal disease data from Nepal and investigated how the disease rate is associated with phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña, vs. ENSO neutral) monsoon rainfall anomaly (below normal, above normal, vs. normal), and changes in timing of monsoon onset, and withdrawal (early, late, vs. normal). Monsoon season was associated with a 21% increase in diarrheal disease rates (Incident Rate Ratios [IRR]: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.16–1.27). El Niño was associated with an 8% reduction in risk while the La Niña was associated with a 32% increase in under-5 diarrheal disease rates. Likewise, higher-than-normal monsoon rainfall was associated with increased rates of diarrheal disease, with considerably higher rates observed in the mountain region (IRR 1.51, 95% CI: 1.19–1.92). Our findings suggest that under-5 diarrheal disease burden in Nepal is significantly influenced by ENSO and changes in seasonal monsoon dynamics. Since both ENSO phases and monsoon can be predicted with considerably longer lead time compared to weather, our findings will pave the way for the development of more effective early warning systems for climate sensitive infectious diseases.