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This article seeks to discuss the origins and evolution of the Natuna Islands issue within the context of Indonesia's foreign policy, and in particular, its relations with China. It is argued that while the Natuna issue will continue to crop up from time to time and in the process elicit a variety of reactions and responses from Jakarta and Beijing, it is unlikely to bring about an outright naval confrontation between Indonesia and China in the short to medium term, not least because the governing elites of both countries appreciate the value of deepening bilateral economic engagement.

In common with other countries around the world, Brunei Darussalam has had to deal with the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid19) pandemic and its consequences. By the end of 2020, Brunei had navigated the pandemic storm successfully by keeping its social compact intact, achieving a relatively buoyant economy, exhibiting a balanced foreign policy through strategic hedging, and keeping the country secure through defense diplomacy. Ending 2020 in great shape places Brunei in good stead for assuming the chairmanship of ASEAN and future royal succession.

After the stunning victory of Pakatan Harapan (Alliance of Hope) over the incumbent Barisan Nasional (National Front) in May 2018's 14th Malaysian General Election, 2019 was a year of political transition, with Pakatan governing, Barisan rising from its political grave, and the Malaysian people getting accustomed to a two-party coalition system. In a chaotic year of party-political and electoral fatigue, social discontent, and economic slowdown, Malaysia endured its domestic troubles to remain a stable country.

After decades of rule by the Barisan Nasional, spearheaded by the United Malays National Organisation, 2018 witnessed a change in government when the Pakatan Harapan opposition secured a stunning victory in the general election. The incumbent prime minister, Najib Razak, was defeated by his political nemesis, Mahathir Mohamad. Malaysia's economy was stable but sluggish, growing slower than expected in 2018.

In May 2017 the Indonesian military conducted a large-scale exercise in the Natuna Islands. This was in the wake of three incidents in 2016 that involved Chinese fishing boats. Jakarta accused the vessels of "stealing fish" within the Indonesian EEZ but Beijing considered these boats to be carrying out "regular activities in Chinese traditional fishing grounds". Both Beijing and Jakarta acknowledge that the Natuna Islands belong to Indonesia. But while the Chinese avoid mentioning the issue of the islands having an EEZ, Jakarta openly claims that the islands definitely do have an EEZ. The two countries are "strategic partners", and while China needs Indonesia to help realize some of its "One Belt One Road" ambitions, Jakarta eyes funding from Beijing to help its "Maritime Power Dream". Indonesia has adhered to its claim of being an Archipelagic State and has relied on UNCLOS to support its territorial claims. China has also openly stated that the South China Sea issue would be resolved with reference to UNCLOS. However, Indonesians are divided over the issue. There are those who wish to bring the problem to an international tribunal, because they have no faith in bilateral negotiations as a possible path to a solution. The rise of hardline Muslims in recent months and their critical view of Chinese investments in Indonesia may also affect Jakarta-Beijing relations. While the Natunas is likely to remain a perennial issue between Indonesia and China in the short to medium term, it is unlikely to derail the bilateral relationship as economics is likely to continue trumping politics in Sino-Indonesian relations, at least under Indonesian President Jokowi's administration. It is also unlikely to bring about an outright naval confrontation between Indonesia and China.

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