Suchergebnisse

Foresight is actively used worldwide within the framework of the national research and development policy. At that transformation of foresight into a regularly used tool of long-term forecasting depends on a number of institutional, organizational and political factors. The author attempts to identify such factors based on analysis of the foresight practice in the UK, Brazil and Russia. ; Метод форсайта широко используется в государственной научно-технической политике разных стран для определения приоритетов НИОКР. При этом закрепление форсайта в качестве регулярно применяемого инструмента зависит от ряда институциональных, организационных и политических факторов. Автором предпринята попытка выявить подобные факторы на основе анализа практики форсайт-исследований в Великобритании, Бразилии и России.

Foresight has become a widely employed method in the last decades, however only few of the foresight programmes proved to be successful and long lasting. This poses a controversy taking into account that the concept and the methodology of foresight have been exhaustively studied, and the achieved level of information, consultative and organizational support at hand is sufficient to carry out projects of different scale and subject. The author presumes that the reasons lie in the predominant attention of foresight actors to its material outcomes and methodology instead of mechanisms that form the very basis of the system, whose future is subject to analysis by means of foresight. The hypothesis is further justified with analysis of foresight programmes in the Great Britain and Brazil, which enables to propose a revised definition of the foresight concept.