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Intro -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- 1 Introduction and Rationale -- Part I. Laying Out the Basic Model -- 2 The Basic Model -- 3 Groups as an Approximation -- 4 Model Selection -- 5 Posterior Group-Membership Probabilities -- Part II. Generalizing the Basic Model -- 6 Statistically Linking Group Membership to Covariates -- 7 Adding Covariates to the Trajectories Themselves -- 8 Dual Trajectory Analysis -- 9 Concluding Observations -- Index.

Annotation This book provides a systematic exposition of a group-based statistical method for analyzing longitudinal data in the social and behavioral sciences and in medicine. The methods can be applied to a wide range of data, such as that describing the progression of delinquency and criminality over the life course, changes in income over time, the course of a disease or physiological condition, or the evolution of the socioeconomic status of communities. Using real-world research data from longitudinal studies, the book explains and applies this method for identifying distinctive time-based progressions called developmental trajectories. Rather than assuming the existence of developmental trajectories of a specific form before statistical data analysis begins, the method allows the trajectories to emerge from the data itself. Thus, in an analysis of data on Montreal school children, it teases apart four distinct trajectories of physical aggression over the ages 6 to 15, examines predictors of these trajectories, and identifies events that may alter the trajectories. Aimed at consumers of statistical methodology, including social scientists, criminologists, psychologists, and medical researchers, the book presents the statistical theory underlying the method with a mixture of intuition and technical development.

AbstractIn this address I argue that large reductions in unproductive and unjust uses of imprisonment requires curtailment of the over use of life imprisonment. I go on to discuss how criminologists should engage the policy process to achieve material reductions in prison populations by the accumulation of many incremental reductions in the overuse of incarceration.

Do states with more guns have higher rates of fatal police shootings? This article uses a validated measure of firearm availability (the percentage of suicides committed with a firearm) to examine the relationship between gun proliferation and fatal police shootings. It expands on existing research to include (1) measures of access to Level I and II trauma centers, (2) interpretation of the findings from the lenses of "statistical prediction," and (3) tests for structural differences between models for black decedents versus nonblack decedents. Findings confirm the correlation between statewide prevalence of gun ownership and fatal police shootings for both all decedents and unarmed decedents. It provides partial support for "statistical prediction" by police and finds that greater access to trauma centers is associated with lower rates of citizen deaths. The analysis suggests a far broader range of policy options for saving lives, such as better enforcement of legal restrictions on firearm possession, than focusing solely on policing systems.

United States. Examines increasing audit resources and penalties, decreasing the cost of compliance, regulating tax preparers, and other policy instruments.

This paper reports results from a randomized experiment in which 256 participants recruited to complete a survey could earn extra payment by cheating on a quiz. We report the first deterrence experiment that incorporates significant elements of situational and individual difference theories of crime into a single analytic framework. Consistent with extant deterrence research, the prevalence of cheating was lower when detection was more certain but not when the penalty was more severe. Further, cheating was more likely among participants with stronger present‐orientation, or who were prone to self‐serving bias.

We propose a model that integrates the extralegal consequences from conviction and impulsivity into the traditional deterrence framework. The model was tested with 252 college students, who completed a survey concerning drinking and driving. Key findings include the following: (1) Although variation in sanction certainty and severity predicted offending, variation in celerity did not; (2) the extralegal consequences from conviction appear to be at least as great a deterrent as the legal consequences; (3) the influence of sanction severity diminished with an individual's "present‐orientation"; and (4) the certainty of punishment was far more robust a deterrent to offending than was the severity of punishment.

A large and growing literature links stable individual differences established early in life to deviant behavior through the life course. This literature challenges basic premises of modern sociological and economic theories of deviance that emphasize explanatory factors that are more proximate in time and external to the individual. In this paper we present and test a theory designed to link rational choice and social control theories with two leading examples of theories that emphasize stable individual differences (Wilson and Herrnstein, 1985; Gottfredson and Hirschi, 1990). Based on appeals to the economic theory of investment, we argue that individuals who are more present oriented and self‐centered invest less in social bonds and therefore are less deterred from committing crime by the possibility of damage to such bonds. Thus, our theory, which builds from key constructs of the Gottfredson‐Hir‐schi and Wilson‐Herrnstein theories, departs from those theories with the contention that social control does matter.

In a reexamination of the perceptual deterrence literature. Williams and Hawkins (1986) have suggested that previous tests of the deterrence doctrine have been guided by too narrow a conception of the deterrence process. In essence, they argue that the preventive mechanisms are triggered by formal sanctions should be included in the accounting of the deterrent effect of formal sanctions. In this paper, we test this expanded conception of deterrence. We find little evidence to support the argument of Williams and Hawkins. Alternative interpretations of the results and future directions for research are discussed.

Among the best documented empirical regularities in criminology is the positive association between past and future delinquency and criminality. In this paper, we examine alternative interpretations of this association. One is that prior participation has a genuine behavioral impact on the individual. Prior participation may, for example, reduce inhibitions against engaging in delinquent activity. Such an effect is termed state dependence. A second explanation is that individuals differ in unmeasured delinquent propensity and this unmeasured propensity is persistent over time. This second explanation is a consequence of population heterogeneity. Using a three‐wave panel data set, we attempt to distinguish these two interpretations of the positive association between past and future delinquency. Our results suggest that the positive association is principally due to a state‐dependent influence. Theoretical implications and directions for future research are also discussed.