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IF YOU CONSIDER WHY WE HAVE AN ARMS RACE AND WHY NEGOTIATIONS OVER ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT FAIL, YOU CAN TRACE THE TROUBLE TO ONE PRECEPT OF STRATEGY THAT IS COMMONLY ACCEPTED WITHOUT QUESTION: THAT THE WAY TO KEEP THE PEACE IS TO MAINTAIN A MILITARY BALANCE VIS-A-VIS YOUR POTENTIAL OPPONENT. THERE FOLLOWS FROM IT THE BELIEF THAT THE WAY TO IMPROVE STABILITY AND TO CHECK THE ARMS RACE IS TO SEEK BALANCED CONSTRAINTS ON ARMS BY NEGOTIATION. THIS PAPER EXAMINES THESE BELIEFS, WHAT IS WRONG WITH THEM AND WHAT SHOULD BE PUT IN THEIR PLACE. THE CONCLUSION REACHED IS THAT IF THE POLITICAL AIM IS THE PRESERVATION OF PEACE, THE APPROPRIATE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE SHOULD BE, NOT BALANCE, BUT 'SUFFICIENCY' IN NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND 'DEFENSIVE SUPERIORITY' IN NON-NUCLEAR FORCES, TWO CONCEPTS THAT ARE DEVELOPED IN THE ANALYSIS. THE WAY TO ACHIEVE THESE AIMS AND EASE THE ARMS RACE IS BY INDEPENDENT CHANGES IN STRATEGY. CONSULTATION AND DEBATE WITH YOUR OPPONENT TO PERSUADE HIM THAT HE TOO SHOULD CHANGE STRATEGY MAY HELP TO IMPROVE SECURITY AND EASE THE LEVEL OF ARMS. NEGOTIATION OF CONDITIONAL CHANGES CAN BE COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE AND IS APPROPRIATE ONLY IN SPECIAL CIRCUMSTANCES. A BASIC PRINCIPLE ARRIVED AT IS THIS: IF THERE IS A CHANGE IN THE LEVEL OR CHARACTER OF YOUR FORCES THAT WOULD HELP YOU ATTAIN NUCLEAR SUFFICIENCY OR NON-NUCLEAR DEFENSIVE SUPERIORITY, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER YOUR OPPONENT MADE A SIMILAR MOVE, THERE ARE NO GROUNDS FOR SEEKING RECIPROCITY THROUGH NEGOTIATION. IT WILL PY: 1986

FOR SECURITY AT THE NON-NUCLEAR LEVEL, A NATION OR ALLIANCE NEEDS A NON-NUCLEAR DEFENSIVE CAPABILITY THAT IS SUPERIOR TO ITS POTENTIAL OPPONENT'S NON-NUCLEAR OFFENSIVE CAPABILITY. MUTUAL SECURITY REQUIRES THAT THIS CONDITION BE SATISFIED FOR BOTH SIDES. THIS, IN TURN, CALLS FOR A RESTRUCTURING OF FORCES ON BOTH SIDES. TO ACHIEVE THIS, A NEW AND MORE CONSTRUCTIVE DIALOGUE IS NEEDED. THE WARSAW PACT PROPOSALS ON THE NON-NUCLEAR PROBLEM APPEAR TO PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY THAT THE WEST SHOULD SEIZE.

This note presents the results of a questionnaire enquiry into replacement policies used in a sample of firms, mainly in the engineering industry.The enquiry was made as one part of a study of strategic factors in economic growth. This broader study has been focussed on the question : what factors influence the pace at which new and more efficient units of production, whether whole plants or individual machines, are introduced into industry in place of old ones, thus giving rise to increased productivity ?

The Review has now been appearing for more than two years; this article looks critically at our attempts at forecasting. Forecasting is not the Review's only purpose; it aims to provide a regular and systematic analysis of recent economic developments, which allows readers to form their own views of the future. Our forecasts provide one view for them to consider.