Suchergebnisse

This is a plea for a dynamic perspective in forecasting British elections. Autoregressive models are capable of making forecasts in their own right (ex-ante, early, & unconditionally). Their large forecast errors, however, suggest that these models be used in combination with structural models of the vote. Lewis-Beck has identified the key short-term predictors of the vote such as government approval & economic conditions. The performance of such a vote model can only be helped by the inclusion of a dynamic element that captures the undeniable return of the British vote to equilibrium. 1 Table, 3 Figures, 16 References. Adapted from the source document.

In recent years, the Republican party has sharply narrowed the Democratic edge in overall party identification. Using New York times/CBS News surveys (1980-1986) and earlier NES/CPS surveys, this analysis probes several explanations for that partisan change: generational replacement, conversion, and mobilization. (Abstract amended)

DOES THE ECONOMY HOLD THE KEY TO THE UPS AND DOWNS OF THE POPULARITY OF AMERICAN PRESIDENTS? THIS STUDY, WHICH IS BASED ON QUARTERLY DATA FROM 1961 TO 1980, EMPLOYS STOCHASTIC MODELS FOR TIME SERIES (BOX-JENKINS). FOR INFLATION, THOUGH NOT FOR UNEMPLOYMENT, THE FINDINGS CONFIRM A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT AT A LAG OF ONE QUATER. THE WORRIES OF POLITICAL LEADERS ABOUT THE INFLATION SIDE OF MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE APPEAR TO BE JUSTIFIED. NEVERTHELESS, THE INFLUENCE OF NONECONOMIC FACTORS SUCH AS INTERNATIONAL EVENTS, THE VIETNAM WAR, AND WATERGATE PROVES EVEN MORE POTENT. MOREOVER, PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY IS SUBJECT TO A CYCLE WHEREBY EACH PRESIDENT BEGINS HIS SERVICE WITH AN UNEARNED POPULARITY BONUS THAT SUBSEQUENTLY ERODES. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IS NOT FOUND TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS INAUGURATION-EROSION CYCLE, BUT NEITHER ARE RALLIES, WARS, OR SCANDAL.

The strategy of ambiguity counsels candidates for office to take up some policy positions in the territory of the opposing party. Using evidence from the 1988 presidential election, examines how aware voters were of incidents of 'issue trespassing'; whether attention to the electoral campaign helped voters become more aware; and the strategy's electoral payoff. (Abstract amended)

Two explanations have been proposed in the literature for the instability & low coherence of responses to policy issues in mass surveys: the fallibility of measurement instruments & the prevalence of nonattitudes. These explanations are tested with data from a survey of 184 adult residents of Long Island, NY, conducted Apr, 1980. Multiple magnitude scaling measures of attitudes are employed & a measurement model with latent variables is proposed. Response reliabilities are estimated jointly for 4 policy issues & for party identification & liberal/conservative self-location, using LISREL. Both the response reliabilities for the items & the correlations among the latent variables are higher in the sophisticated half of the sample than in the unsophisticated half. These findings support the nonattitudes hypothesis, though not ruling out the existence of defects in the measurement instruments. 3 Tables, 2 Figures, 36 References. Modified HA

ACCORDING TO THE SRC-CPS SURVEYS, THE PROPORTION OF AMERICANS IDENTIFYING WITH A POLITICAL PARTY DECLINED SHARPLY BETWEEN 1964 AND 1976, FROM APPROXIMATELY 75 TO 63 PERCENT. IN ORDER TO CAST SOME LIGHT ON THE REASONS FOR THIS DEALIGNMENT, THE AUTHORS EXAMINE THE CONTRIBUTIONS MADE BY THE CHANGING AGE COMPOSITION OF THE ELECTORATE, THE ENTRY OF NEW VOTERS INTO THE ELECTORATE, THE PARTY DESERTION AMONG VOTERS ALREADY IN THE ELECTORATE, AND THE SUPPRESSION OF AGE GAINS IN PARTISANSHIP. THESE FOUR SOURCES ARE SHOWN TO EXPLAIN CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OF THE AGGREGATE DECLINE FROM 1964 TO 1976, WITH THE SINGLE LARGEST CONTRIBUTION MADE BY ENTRY OF NEW VOTERS NEVERTHELESS OUR FINDINGS INDICATE THAT THE DECLINE OCCURRED THROUGHOUT ALL AGE COHORTS AND SUGGEST THE POTENCY OF DEALINGNINGPERIOD FORCES. THESE FORCES SIMPLY HAD THEIR STRONGEST EFFECT ON THOSE VOTERS WITH PREDICTABLY THE LEAST RESISTANCE, THE YOUNGEST COHORTS.

THE NOTION THAT IDEOLOGICAL PERCEPTIONS IN THE MASS PUBLIC ARE SHAPED TO SOME EXTENT BY ELITES AND POLITICAL CANDIDATES IS WIDESPREAD IN THE PUBLIC OPINION LITERATURE. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A LACK OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH DIRECTLY DEMONSTRATING THE LINKS BETWEEN ELITES AND THE MASSES WHOSE THINKING THEY SUPPOSEDLY CUE AND STRUCTURE. THIS PAPER ATTEMPTS TO SHOW, THROUGH MAGNITUDE SCALE DATA COLLECTED OVER TIME IN THE 1980 CAMPAIGN, THE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF POLITICAL CANDIDATES IN ALTERING IDEOLOGICAL PERCEPTIONS OF POLITICAL STIMULI. THE CHIEF "CARRIER" OF IDEOLOGY IN 1980 IS SHOWN TO BE RONALD REAGAN, WHOSE STRONG ISSUE STANDS AND IDEOLOGICAL LABEL INFLUENCED PERCEPTIONS OF SPECIFIC ISSUES' IDEOLOGICAL CONTENT. THE FINDINGS ARE DISCUSSED IN TERMS OF BOTH MEASUREMENT PROBLEMS IN THE IDEOLOGY LITERATURE AND MORE GENERAL THEORIES OF ELITE AND ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ON MASS POLITICAL THOUGHT.HT.