Suchergebnisse

One of the prime concern of policy makers should be to ensure energy security in the country. The case of Pakistan is interesting in a sense that with the growing age of the country, the increasing reliance on imported sources of energy is resulting in huge demand-supply gap which is evident in suppressed demand for electricity and natural gas. It has social, economic and environmental consequences. Most of the countries in the world have shifted their focus from imported to indigenous resources which are more often cheap, environmental friendly and provide competitiveness. The study reveals, through exploring secondary data, descriptive analysis, Johanson Cointegration and Granger Causality test results based on error correction model, energy insecurity is damaging for environment and socio-economic conditions. The study suggests policy makers to move toward long run energy security to get environmental and socio-economic sustainability in the country through minimizing reliance on imported energy and promoting energy efficiency.

The New Keynesian (NK) models have advantage over the Real
Business Cycle (RBC) models as they allow rigidities in the structure of
the model, hence provide built-in mechanism to incorporate the
structural shocks. The estimation of the NK model for Pakistan's economy
remains a relatively unexplored area. This study attempts to estimate a
closed economy version of the NK model using robust econometric
technique. On the empirical side macroeconomic dynamics have been
investigated in response to unanticipated monetary shock. The reaction
of the monetary authority (the State Bank of Pakistan) in response to
structural shocks has been assessed by exploring the role of forward
looking expectations. The SVAR model has been employed to estimate the
structural parameters. The response of macroeconomic aggregates to
structural shocks has also been simulated along with discussing the
forecast error variance decomposition. The role of forward looking
expectations is found to play prominent role in the prevailing market
structure of the country. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been
found to respond to shocks after a lag of one or more periods indicating
time inconsistency problem which is due to discretionary monetary policy
stance being adopted by the monetary authority. The distorted beliefs of
economic agents about the stance of monetary policy have pointed towards
weak effectiveness of the monetary policy. The results suggest that the
SBP would have to adopt an independent and transparent monetary policy
by following some sort of Taylor-type rule. JEL Classification: C32,
C51, E52, E58 Keywords: New Keynesian Models, Real Business Cycle
Models, Forward Looking Expectations, SVAR Model, Price
Puzzle