Abstract. In small and medium-sized basins or in rivers characterized by intermittent discharges, with low or negligible/null observed values for long periods of the year, the correct representation of the discharge regime is important for issues related to water management and to define the amount and quality of water available for irrigation, domestic and recreational uses. In these cases, only one index as a statistical metric is often not enough; it is thus necessary to introduce Flow Duration Curves (FDC). The aim of this study is therefore to combine a stochastic index flow model capable of reproducing the FDC record period of a river, regardless of the persistence and seasonality of the series, with the theory of total probability in order to calculate how often a river is dry. The paper draws from preliminary analyses, including a study to estimate the correlation between discharge indicators Q95, Q50 and Q1 (discharges exceeding 95%, 50% or 1% of the time, respectively) and some fundamental characteristics of the basin, as well as to identify homogeneous regions in the target area through the study of several geo-morphological features and climatic conditions. The stochastic model was then applied in one of the homogeneous regions that includes intermittent rivers. Finally, the model was regionalized by means of regression analysis in order to calculate the FDC for ungauged basins; the reliability of this method was tested using jack-knife validation.
Abstract. An operative methodology for rainfall thresholds definition is illustrated, in order to provide at critical river section optimal flood warnings. Threshold overcoming could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk and trigger the prevention and emergency system alert. The procedure for the definition of critical rainfall threshold values is based both on the quantitative precipitation observed and the hydrological response of the basin. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section and are estimated by hydrological modelling for several scenarios (e.g.: modifying the soil moisture conditions). Some preliminary results, in terms of reliability analysis (presence of false alarms and missed alarms, evaluated using indicators like hit rate and false alarm rate) for the case study of Mignone River are presented.
Abstract. In order to estimate the rainfall fields over an entire basin raingauge, pointwise measurements need to be interpolated and the small-scale variability of rainfall fields can lead to biases in the rain rate estimation over an entire basin, above all for small or medium size mountainous and urban catchments. For these reasons, several raingauges should be installed in different places in order to determine the spatial rainfall distribution during the evolution of the natural phenomena over the selected area. In technical applications, many empirical relations are used in order to deduce heavy areal rainfall, when just one raingauge is available. In this work, we studied the areal reduction factor (ARF) using radar reflectivity maps collected with the Polar 55C, a C-band Doppler dual polarized coherent weather radar with polarization agility and with a 0.9° beamwidth. The radar rainfall estimates, for an area of 1 km2, were integrated for heavy rainfall with an upscaling process, until we had rainfall estimate for an area of 900 km2. The results obtained for a significant amount of data by using this technique are compared with the most important relations of the areal reduction factor reported in the literature.
Abstract. Many phenomena (such as attenuation and range degradation) can influence the accuracy of rainfall radar estimates. They introduce errors that increase as the distance from radar increases, thereby decreasing the reliability of radar estimates for applications that require quantitative precipitation estimation. The present paper evaluates radar error as a function of the range, in order to correct the rainfall radar estimates. The radar is calibrated utilizing data from the rain gauges. Then, the G/R ratio between the yearly rainfall amount measured in each rain gauge position during 2008 and the corresponding radar rainfall amount is calculated against the slant range. The trend of the G/R ratio shows two behaviours: a concave part due to the melting layer effect close to the radar location and an almost linear, increasing trend at greater distances. A best fitting line is used to find an adjustment factor, which estimates the radar error at a given range. The effectiveness of the methodology is verified by comparing pairs of rainfall time series that are observed simultaneously by collocated rain gauges and radar. Furthermore, the variability of the adjustment factor is investigated at the scale of event, both for convective and stratiform events. The main result is that there is not a univocal range error pattern, as it also depends on the characteristics of the considered event. On the other hand, the adjustment factor tends to stabilize itself for time aggregations of the order of one year or greater.
Abstract. Hydrological models are the basis of operational flood-forecasting systems. The accuracy of these models is strongly dependent on the quality and quantity of the input information represented by rainfall height. Finer space-time rainfall resolution results in more accurate hazard forecasting. In this framework, an optimum raingauge network is essential in predicting flood events. This paper develops an entropy-based approach to evaluate the maximum information content achievable by a rainfall network for different sampling time intervals. The procedure is based on the determination of the coefficients of transferred and nontransferred information and on the relative isoinformation contours. The nontransferred information value achieved by the whole network is strictly dependent on the sampling time intervals considered. An empirical curve is defined, to assess the objective of the research: the nontransferred information value is plotted versus the associated sampling time on a semi-log scale. The curve has a linear trend. In this paper, the methodology is applied to the high-density raingauge network of the urban area of Rome.
Abstract. Flash flood events are floods characterised by a very rapid response of basins to storms, often resulting in loss of life and property damage. Due to the specific space-time scale of this type of flood, the lead time available for triggering civil protection measures is typically short. Rainfall threshold values specify the amount of precipitation for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given river cross section. If the threshold values are exceeded, it can produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk. It is therefore possible to directly compare the observed or forecasted precipitation with critical reference values, without running online real-time forecasting systems. The focus of this study is the Mignone River basin, located in Central Italy. The critical rainfall threshold values are evaluated by minimising a utility function based on the informative entropy concept and by using a simulation approach based on radar data. The study concludes with a system performance analysis, in terms of correctly issued warnings, false alarms and missed alarms.
Skillful predictions of the frequency of flood events over long lead times (e.g., from one to ten years ahead) are essential for governments and institutions making near‐term flood risk plans. However, little is known about current flood prediction capabilities over annual to decadal time scales. Here we address this knowledge gap at 286 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations across the U.S. Midwest using precipitation and temperature decadal predictions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 models. We use the 1‐ to 10‐year predictions of precipitation and temperature as inputs to statistical models that have significant skill in reproducing inter‐annual and decadal changes in the observed frequency of flood events. Our results indicate that the limited skill of basin‐averaged precipitation predictions suppresses the skill of flood event frequency predictions, even at the shortest lead time, but downscaling and bias correction improves predictions across all lead times and especially in spring.
This paper reviews the scientific literature on water buffalo welfare in all stages of the live animal supply chain from the farm gate to slaughter (loading/unloading, markets, transportation, handling, lairage, stunning and slaughter) with the objective of identifying risk factors and potential mitigation strategies. Although in some countries legislation exists to protect the welfare of farm animals during transport and killing, the handling practices used to load and unload buffaloes and move them in livestock markets and abattoirs are often harsh. This is frequently due to inadequate equipment designed principally for cattle, and the fact that water buffaloes are considered more temperamental than cattle. Additionally, more reactive animals have increased stress responses to handling, which can lead to more negative human interventions with increased numbers of skin lesions and bruises to the carcasses. During transport, buffaloes may suffer periods of thermal stress due to overstocking, inadequate ventilation and because in many tropical climates trips are made during the hottest time of the day. The anatomical and physiological characteristics of water buffalo make them particularly susceptible to thermal stress in the absence of water for wallowing. Although water buffaloes belong to the same Bovidae family as domestic cattle, certain anatomical features of the head make effective stunning very problematic. Buffaloes have extensive sinuses and frontal bones, meaning that the penetrating captive bolt devices recommended for cattle may prove ineffective in reliably inducing unconsciousness. There is a need for further development of procedures, stunning positions and appropriate devices to improve the efficiency of buffalo stunning. Finally, in many parts of the world where buffalo are routinely slaughtered in basic conditions without prior stunning. Slaughter without stunning can result in pain and stress associated with delays in the time to loss of consciousness, pain from the cutting of the neck and potential distress associated with aspiration of blood into the respiratory tract. Specific legislation, guidelines and handler/stockman/operator training programmes should be developed to improve the welfare of buffaloes during all ante mortem stages of loading, unloading, handling, stunning and slaughter.
ANPCyT, Argentina ; YerPhI, Armenia ; ARC, Australia ; BMWFW, Austria ; FWF, Austria ; ANAS, Azerbaijan ; SSTC, Belarus ; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) ; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) ; NSERC, Canada ; NRC, Canada ; CFI, Canada ; CERN ; CONICYT, Chile ; CAS, China ; MOST, China ; NSFC, China ; COLCIENCIAS, Colombia ; MSMT CR, Czech Republic ; MPO CR, Czech Republic ; VSC CR, Czech Republic ; DNRF, Denmark ; DNSRC, Denmark ; IN2P3-CNRS, CEA-DRF/IRFU, France ; SRNSFG, Georgia ; BMBF, Germany ; HGF, Germany ; MPG, Germany ; GSRT, Greece ; RGC, Hong Kong SAR, China ; ISF, Israel ; Benoziyo Center, Israel ; INFN, Italy ; MEXT, Japan ; JSPS, Japan ; CNRST, Morocco ; NWO, Netherlands ; RCN, Norway ; MNiSW, Poland ; NCN, Poland ; FCT, Portugal ; MNE/IFA, Romania ; MES of Russia, Russian Federation ; NRC KI, Russian Federation ; JINR ; MESTD, Serbia ; MSSR, Slovakia ; ARRS, Slovenia ; MIZS, Slovenia ; DST/NRF, South Africa ; MINECO, Spain ; SRC, Sweden ; Wallenberg Foundation, Sweden ; SERI, Switzerland ; SNSF, Switzerland ; Canton of Bern, Switzerland ; MOST, Taiwan ; TAEK, Turkey ; STFC, United Kingdom ; DOE, United States of America ; NSF, United States of America ; BCKDF, Canada ; CANARIE, Canada ; CRC, Canada ; Compute Canada, Canada ; COST, European Union ; ERC, European Union ; ERDF, European Union ; Horizon 2020, European Union ; Marie Sk lodowska-Curie Actions, European Union ; Investissements d' Avenir Labex and Idex, ANR, France ; DFG, Germany ; AvH Foundation, Germany ; Greek NSRF, Greece ; BSF-NSF, Israel ; GIF, Israel ; CERCA Programme Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain ; Royal Society, United Kingdom ; Leverhulme Trust, United Kingdom ; BMBWF (Austria) ; FWF (Austria) ; FNRS (Belgium) ; FWO (Belgium) ; Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) ; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ) ; FAPERGS (Brazil) ; MES (Bulgaria) ; CAS (China) ; MoST (China) ; NSFC (China) ; COLCIENCIAS (Colombia) ; MSES (Croatia) ; CSF (Croatia) ; RPF (Cyprus) ; SENESCYT (Ecuador) ; MoER (Estonia) ; ERC IUT (Estonia) ; ERDF (Estonia) ; Academy of Finland (Finland) ; MEC (Finland) ; HIP (Finland) ; CEA (France) ; CNRS/IN2P3 (France) ; BMBF (Germany) ; DFG (Germany) ; HGF (Germany) ; GSRT (Greece) ; NKFIA (Hungary) ; DAE (India) ; DST (India) ; IPM (Iran) ; SFI (Ireland) ; INFN (Italy) ; MSIP (Republic of Korea) ; NRF (Republic of Korea) ; MES (Latvia) ; LAS (Lithuania) ; MOE (Malaysia) ; UM (Malaysia) ; BUAP (Mexico) ; CINVESTAV (Mexico) ; CONACYT (Mexico) ; LNS (Mexico) ; SEP (Mexico) ; UASLP-FAI (Mexico) ; MOS (Montenegro) ; MBIE (New Zealand) ; PAEC (Pakistan) ; MSHE (Poland) ; NSC (Poland) ; FCT (Portugal) ; JINR (Dubna) ; MON (Russia) ; RosAtom (Russia) ; RAS (Russia) ; RFBR (Russia) ; NRC KI (Russia) ; MESTD (Serbia) ; SEIDI (Spain) ; CPAN (Spain) ; PCTI (Spain) ; FEDER (Spain) ; MOSTR (Sri Lanka) ; MST (Taipei) ; ThEPCenter (Thailand) ; IPST (Thailand) ; STAR (Thailand) ; NSTDA (Thailand) ; TAEK (Turkey) ; NASU (Ukraine) ; SFFR (Ukraine) ; STFC (United Kingdom ; DOE (U.S.A.) ; NSF (U.S.A.) ; Marie-Curie programme ; Horizon 2020 Grant (European Union) ; Leventis Foundation ; A.P. Sloan Foundation ; Alexander von Humboldt Foundation ; Belgian Federal Science Policy Office ; Fonds pour la Formation a la Recherche dans l'Industrie et dans l'Agriculture (FRIA-Belgium) ; Agentschap voor Innovatie door Wetenschap en Technologie (IWT-Belgium) ; F.R.S.-FNRS (Belgium) ; Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission ; Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) of the Czech Republic ; Hungarian Academy of Sciences (Hungary) ; New National Excellence Program UNKP (Hungary) ; Council of Science and Industrial Research, India ; HOMING PLUS programme of the Foundation for Polish Science ; European Union, Regional Development Fund ; Mobility Plus programme of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education ; National Science Center (Poland) ; National Priorities Research Program by Qatar National Research Fund ; Programa Estatal de Fomento de la Investigacion Cientfica y Tecnica de Excelencia Maria de Maeztu ; Programa Severo Ochoa del Principado de Asturias ; EU-ESF ; Greek NSRF ; Rachadapisek Sompot Fund for Postdoctoral Fellowship, Chulalongkorn University (Thailand) ; Chulalongkorn Academic into Its 2nd Century Project Advancement Project (Thailand) ; Welch Foundation ; Weston Havens Foundation (U.S.A.) ; Canton of Geneva, Switzerland ; Herakleitos programme ; Thales programme ; Aristeia programme ; European Research Council (European Union) ; Horizon 2020 Grant (European Union): 675440 ; FWO (Belgium): 30820817 ; Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission: Z181100004218003 ; NKFIA (Hungary): 123842 ; NKFIA (Hungary): 123959 ; NKFIA (Hungary): 124845 ; NKFIA (Hungary): 124850 ; NKFIA (Hungary): 125105 ; National Science Center (Poland): Harmonia 2014/14/M/ST2/00428 ; National Science Center (Poland): Opus 2014/13/B/ST2/02543 ; National Science Center (Poland): 2014/15/B/ST2/03998 ; National Science Center (Poland): 2015/19/B/ST2/02861 ; National Science Center (Poland): Sonata-bis 2012/07/E/ST2/01406 ; Programa Estatal de Fomento de la Investigacion Cientfica y Tecnica de Excelencia Maria de Maeztu: MDM-2015-0509 ; Welch Foundation: C-1845 ; This paper presents the combinations of single-top-quark production cross-section measurements by the ATLAS and CMS Collaborations, using data from LHC proton-proton collisions at = 7 and 8 TeV corresponding to integrated luminosities of 1.17 to 5.1 fb(-1) at = 7 TeV and 12.2 to 20.3 fb(-1) at = 8 TeV. These combinations are performed per centre-of-mass energy and for each production mode: t-channel, tW, and s-channel. The combined t-channel cross-sections are 67.5 +/- 5.7 pb and 87.7 +/- 5.8 pb at = 7 and 8 TeV respectively. The combined tW cross-sections are 16.3 +/- 4.1 pb and 23.1 +/- 3.6 pb at = 7 and 8 TeV respectively. For the s-channel cross-section, the combination yields 4.9 +/- 1.4 pb at = 8 TeV. The square of the magnitude of the CKM matrix element V-tb multiplied by a form factor f(LV) is determined for each production mode and centre-of-mass energy, using the ratio of the measured cross-section to its theoretical prediction. It is assumed that the top-quark-related CKM matrix elements obey the relation |V-td|, |V-ts| « |V-tb|. All the |f(LV)V(tb)|(2) determinations, extracted from individual ratios at = 7 and 8 TeV, are combined, resulting in |f(LV)V(tb)| = 1.02 +/- 0.04 (meas.) +/- 0.02 (theo.). All combined measurements are consistent with their corresponding Standard Model predictions.