Suchergebnisse

The World Trade Organization (WTO) recommends all members to phase out their export subsidies. While this may render export-oriented industries susceptible to tighter competition in their import markets, productivity improvements could help offset such disadvantages. This article explores the interaction between these two different aspects to evaluate the economy-wide impact of export subsidy reforms and productivity improvements in the Indian textile and clothing sector. Our analysis stands on various policy simulations applying the general equilibrium model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP; Hertel, 1997 ). The welfare impacts of the removal of Indian textile and clothing subsidies in terms of equivalent variation shows that India is expected to encounter a loss of about 71.5 million US$, while other Asian countries may gain about 218 million US$. In a different scenario, we simulate the impact of a complete phase-out of subsidies provided to the textile and clothing industry of India and a simultaneous increase in total factor productivity growth to 3.5 per cent. This leads to a net positive welfare change and an expected gain of about US$ 13.17 million in terms of allocative efficiency. We conclude that merely removing subsidies is not enough, as is often argued by Indian policymakers that such a policy reversal might result in contraction of the sector. Investments in total factor productivity should come about simultaneously, probably by employing surplus funds from saved subsidy payments in areas like research and development and infrastructure. This conclusion may be qualitatively generalised for any sector in the world, which is examined for export subsidy reforms, but similar economy-wide studies are recommended for specific cases.JEL Codes: F00, F13, C68, L670

This paper analyses the determinants of competitiveness of auto industry in India, based on a field survey and a quantitative analysis of secondary data. It highlights that all segments of Indian auto sector are growing at a fairly high rates and their productivity as well as export intensity is on the rise. Domestic sales are rising, but they have declined in certain sub-segments of vehicles. However, the R&D expenditure has been scarce. Effective rate of protection of automobile assembly is far higher than that of auto-components manufacturing. Unorganised sector, which is quite significant in auto-component manufacturing, has grown more rapidly in the urban areas than in the rural areas. The econometric analysis suggests various measures that could be taken by the government, particularly, the credit facilitation for SMEs. A field survey comprising auto manufacturers in India underlines various constraints faced by the sector, such as the shortage of skilled manpower along with poor infrastructure, fluctuating steel prices and unavailability of land at reasonable price. This suggests that the government could facilitate the industry in becoming more competitive by taking steps such as structural fiscal reforms, cut in import duties of raw materials and capital goods, promotion of R&D and FDI, training facilities, research-backed negotiations of FTAs, roadmap for harmonising emission norms across the country and infrastructure improvement. Industry, on the other hand, should improve its R&D capabilities and market research.

This study identifies and rationalises some of India's issues and concerns with the signing of the RCEP. By analysing the existing trade balance, import surge trends, dumping and agricultural sensitivities, among other factors, the study justifies India's decision to remain outside of this mega-FTA. Further, it predicts the impact of tariff elimination under RCEP on various macroeconomic variables of the RCEP member countries by using the GTAP model under two scenarios: (i) India does not join the RCEP and (ii) India joins the RCEP. Results show that India's GDP would be adversely affected if it joins this agreement, and its overall trade deficit may further deteriorate after joining the RCEP. In terms of the bilateral trade balance, India's trade deficit with ASEAN and China will grow steeply if it joins the agreement. The study also finds that an RCEP without India may lose its shine as the GDP of most of the other members of the RCEP would be negatively impacted by India's decision to stay out. JEL Codes: F13, F15, F17, F61, O53