Suchergebnisse

In August 2006 the South African government announced quotas on the imports of clothing and textile products from China. Three questions arise. What are these expected benefits? What will be the most likely impact of the import quotas on the South African economy? And what are the policy implications? In this paper we answer these questions by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We find that, contrary to the motivations apparently underlying the quota implementation, the macro-economic, sector and household effects are negative and result in greater inequality between poorer and richer households. We refer to modeling results elsewhere in the literature which report results consistent to ours. The policy implications are that the imposition of these quotas could come to be seen as a policy mistake, and that South Africa may benefit more from considering a free trade agreement with China.

In August 2006 the South African government announced quotas on the imports of clothing and textile products from China. Three questions arise. What are these expected benefits? What will be the most likely impact of the import quotas on the South African economy? And what are the policy implications? In this paper we answer these questions by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We find that, contrary to the motivations apparently underlying the quota implementation, the macro-economic, sector and household effects are negative and result in greater inequality between poorer and richer households. We refer to modeling results elsewhere in the literature which report results consistent to ours. The policy implications are that the imposition of these quotas could come to be seen as a policy mistake, and that South Africa may benefit more from considering a free trade agreement with China.

Discusses income inequality and labor market reform in South Africa since 1994. This paper draws on a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the extent and causes of income inequality in South Africa after 1994. In doing so the paper extends the CGE-modelling approach in South Africa by incorporating dynamics into the comparative static CGE model used by the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa. The 1995 Social Accounting Matrix for South Africa prepared by DRI-WEFA SA (Pty) Ltd. (now Global Insight Southern Africa) is used as database. The results from the paper is consistent with evidence from recent household and firm-level surveys in South Africa and supports labour market reform coupled with social security as instruments to achieve more equitable outcomes from globalisation.

In this study, the private rates of return to education of African males and females in South Africa are estimated. Both Heckman's (1976) two-stage selection model and the more recent Double Hurdle model, with correlated errors between the participation and employment equations, is found to be more suitable for the earnings analysis than the one with uncorrelated errors. This might imply that people make the decisions to participate in the labour force and to take up a job offer simultaneously. The private rate of return to education of Africans is found to be 12 and 11 per cent for males and females, respectively. These rates are significantly higher than those found in previous analyses of rates of return to education in South Africa. In these older studies, the private rate of return to education of Africans was found to vary from 2,5 to 7,7 per cent. (Dev South Afr/DÜI)