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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A decade after the passage of the Affordable Care Act, the vision of moving the U.S. health care system "from volume to value" has been partially realized, with few value-based payment initiatives systematically reducing spending or improving quality. While participation in value-based payments continues to grow, the adoption of advanced forms of value-based payment through alternative payment models lags behind both the goals set by the Secretary of Health and Human Services in 2015 and the threshold required for widespread practice transformation. Furthermore, the complexity of the current suite of alternative payment models and allure of traditional fee-for-service prevent the widespread adoption of full risk-bearing contracts. The high costs of care with the impending insolvency of the Medicare trust fund, persistence of poor quality of care and health disparities along racial and socioeconomic lines, and mixed success of alternative payment models indicate the need for a revamped vision for the 2020s. The 2020s require a new strategy that moves from a short-term focus on testing new payment models to a long-term focus on expanding models that are most likely to generate substantial savings and improve quality. This white paper outlines a new direction for the federal government—primarily through the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS)—to chart over the next decade aimed at completing the transition to a health care system that pays for value and reduced health disparities, rather than high volumes of services. First, CMS must articulate a clear vision for the future of value-based payment. In particular, the vision must align across all publicly financed health care, driving change beyond Medicare and Medicaid. Second, CMS must dramatically simplify the current value-based payment landscape and engage late-adopting providers. Third, for health systems already participating in value-based payment, CMS must accelerate the movement from upside-only shared savings to risk-bearing, population-based alternative payment models while curtailing the ability of providers to opt out of value-based payment altogether. Fourth, CMS must not only pull providers toward advanced alternative payment models, but also structure incentives to push providers away from fee-for-service payment. Finally, achieving health equity must be a central feature and goal of value-based payment. Taken together, these five recommendations provide a path toward widespread adoption and success of alternative payment models, producing better health outcomes for all Americans, reducing wasteful inefficiencies and health disparities, and more effectively stewarding taxpayer funds to support other national priorities

In the coming years, assessing the impact of efforts to reduce hospital readmissions will be important to policy makers and hospitals. To inform such assessments, we sought to define preexisting trends in readmission rates for patients by level of clinical severity using a difference-in-differences analysis of Medicare inpatient claims data from 1997, 2002, and 2007 for patients with acute myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure. We also examined trends in length of stay, in-hospital mortality, and postdischarge mortality by severity level to provide additional context for interpreting readmission rate trends. From 1997 to 2007, the difference in readmission rates between the highest and lowest severity quartiles increased. Length of stay and in-hospital mortality decreased for all patients; however, postdischarge mortality increased for the highest-severity patients and decreased for the lowest-severity patients. Assessments of recent policy reforms and quality improvement programs should account for underlying differential trends in readmission rates based on patient severity.

Quality of care may be linked to the profitability of admissions in addition to level of reimbursement. Prior policy reforms reduced payments that differentially affected the average profitability of various admission types. The authors estimated a Cox competing risks model, controlling for the simultaneous risk of mortality post discharge, to determine whether the average profitability of hospital service lines to which a patient was admitted was associated with the likelihood of readmission within 30 days. The sample included 12,705,933 Medicare Fee for Service discharges from 2,438 general acute care hospitals during 1997, 2001, and 2005. There was no evidence of an association between changes in average service line profitability and changes in readmission risk, even when controlling for risk of mortality. These findings are reassuring in that the profitability of patients' admissions did not affect readmission rates, and together with other evidence may suggest that readmissions are not an unambiguous quality indicator for in-hospital care.