Suchergebnisse

AbstractEstimating economic losses resulting from an emergency is always a challenge for researchers, especially in a country like Pakistan where data availability is a constraint. A pandemic situation, such as that caused by COVID‐19, is an example where inconsistent decision‐making—for example, whether to impose a complete lockdown, a smart lockdown, or other restrictions on economic activity—further complicates the issue. Usually guess estimates are given for political and economic debate. However, formal methodologies are being tested to obtain more meaningful results. The present study estimates economic loss using the input–output method to build a more realistic picture. The methodology examines both the direct impact (in the form of losses in selected sectors through final demand) and the indirect impact (through total output). The study looks at a 46‐day period in 2020 where all economic sectors were closed due to Pakistan's complete national lockdown. The results show that final demand decreased by 19.0%, while total output lost approximately 75.6 million USD. The results conclude that the primary sector experienced the greatest losses (31.0%), followed by the secondary and tertiary sectors (18.0% and 16.4%, respectively).

Consumption rates of major forest products such as timber and
firewood, place significant strain on wood stock and forest area in
Pakistan. With the country's rising population, the consumption of these
two major products is increasing because of the growing energy demand,
and no alternative products are likely to replace wood consumption in
the near future. We apply system dynamics modelling to an analysis of
the forestry sector in Pakistan for novel insights into the drivers and
future trajectories of wood consumption. The present research is based
on time series macroeconomic data from 1990-2010 and projections to 2040
of wood supply, forest area, population growth, wood extraction, wood
imports and different uses of wood in the country. The study reveals
that there is no significant increase in area under forest, while
consumption of firewood and timber has increased. The consumption of
firewood is greater than timber consumption in Pakistan, both in
percentage share and in total volume of wood consumption. The
sustainable supply of wood is less than wood consumption, and with
population growth this gap is increasing; wood supply from agricultural
lands is a viable option to fill the gap. Keywords: Wood Consumption,
Sustainable Wood Supply, Projected Wood Shortage