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The Global Stocktake, a key component of the Paris Agreement's ratchet mechanism, assesses global progress every five years with the goal of informing countries' NDC updates. In this analysis, we demonstrate how global progress across a range of sectoral emission indicators can be assessed using performance distributions to allow for a detailed and nuanced analysis without singling out individual countries. We demonstrate the possible use cases, and present some initial insights, using trends in sectoral GHG emissions per capita. The display as a performance distribution can be used to understand the spread in changes across countries, to explore progress over time, and to demonstrate what rates of decarbonisation are possible.

The Paris Agreement sets out the framework for global efforts to address climate change after 2020. Article 6 of the agreement provides for international cooperation through carbon markets to achieve targets jointly on a voluntary basis. The new context of the Paris Agreement - particularly the universal commitment to regularly make increasingly ambitious contributions towards the global effort - present new challenges for carbon markets, especially for host countries. At the time of writing, the exact guidance, rules, modalities, and procedures for engagement through Article 6 remain the subject of ongoing negotiations. However, the three principles of allowing for higher mitigation ambition, promoting sustainable development, and ensuring environmental integrity are already solidly anchored in the Paris text. This guide proposes a number of considerations which countries hosting emission reduction activities should take into account when engaging in carbon markets under the Paris Agreement. It looks especially at how carbon market engagement relates to other aspects of national climate policy making and the fulfilment of commitments under the Paris regime. In addition to rationales to engage in Article 6, aspects relevant for the oversight and implementation of Article 6 are explored from the host country perspective. These include evaluating proposals, potential partners, and further suggestions on how to implement projects on the ground. The guide supports decision making for considerations to achieve overall mitigation in global emissions and the choice between engagement through Article 6.4 and Article 6.2, before sketching out interlinkages between Article 6 participation and other obligations under the Paris Agreement. A conclusion then includes a brief outlook for carbon markets.

Analysis of current developments in global carbon marketsThe major aim of this research project was to provide insights on the state of current carbon market activities and options for supporting the continuation of new and existing mitigation activities in the pre-2020 period. In an analysis of CDM project vulnerability for major project types in key countries, we assessed the risk that projects would cease continuation of their GHG abatement without significant CER revenues. In this context, we conducted a bottom up assessment of CER supply potential in the 2013-2020 period. The total CER supply potential for the 2013-2020 period is considerable, at 4.6 billion CERs, well in excess of current levels of issuance and demand. Just 4% of the maximum CER supply potential, representing 171 million CERs, comes from project types that were classified from the analysis as having typically high vulnerability. Building further onthis quantitative analysis, we assessed the marginal cost of CER supply, and how the CER supply curve would be affected by different scenarios for CER eligibility. In our Base Case, up to 3.8 billion new CERs could supply the market at prices below €1 perunit. We find evidence that robust eligibility restrictions on the supply of CERs from existing CDM projects are essential for any new sources ofdemand to support GHG emission abatement that would not have occurred otherwise.We assessed the impact of credit purchase facilities for supporting vulnerable projects, and the potential for similar efforts to upscale these impacts.

The study analyses the country background, emissions trends, ongoing activities and barriers relating to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Colombia under the ⁠UNFCCC⁠. A special emphasis is laid on further mitigation potentials in the fields of renewable energy production from wind and solar PV, social housing, forest conservation in existing illicit crop substitution programmes and cattle. A chapter is dedicated to coal export and use.

On the basis of a literature review, this paper outlines the main mitigation options for agricultural activities and the broader food system on the supply and the demand side. Economic, policy/legal barriers, technical barriers, socio-cultural barriers, institutional barriers as well as biophysical or environmental barriers exist that hinder the implementation of these options. Such barriers operate at farm level, at national level, at the international level as well as at consumer level. The identified barriers are clustered and recommendations are developed to overcome them, including capacity building and education, participatory approaches with farmers, setting economic incentives right, redirecting public support to focus on sustainable practices, reforming agricultural subsidies, stricter regulations, improved tenure security, coherent policy signals, addressing policies and trade structures at international level and market regulations for fairer prices to producers. However, suitable approaches for the development of food systems need to be context-specific as agricultural systems as well as barriers obstructing the implementation of mitigation approaches are highly diverse and specific to local circumstances. Including mitigation targets related to agriculture in countries' NDCs provides an opportunity to raise ambition to tackle emissions related to food systems.

The study analyses the country background, emissions trends, ongoing activities and barriers relating to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of the Republic of Marshall Islands under the ⁠UNFCCC⁠. A special emphasis is laid on further mitigation potentials in the fields of transport – especially low-carbon domestic shipping – and waste reduction, disposal and processing.

Colombia faces a number of challenges including growing electricity demand, increasing hydroelectric uncertainty as a result of changes in the el Niño weather phenomenon, and a growing need for social housing in metropolitan areas driven by accelerating urbanisation. At the same time, Colombia actively implementing its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. These include measures to improve energy efficiency in the residential sector overall. Some of which will also have a positive effect on energy efficiency in social housing. Policies for renewable electricity, building codes, and appliance energy performance standards all play a role in these efforts. However, these policies are not currently putting Colombia on a path towards the decarbonisation of the building sector that is needed to reach the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. Through Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, countries can cooperate in NDC implementation to allow for higher climate ambition. This can offer opportunities for interventions in the building sector. Given the dynamic nature of the sector and number of actors, ensuring environmental integrity through an overall sectoral approach to Article 6 transfers is likely to be challenging especially in terms of additionality, baseline setting, and monitoring reporting and verification. However, there may be an opportunity to construct Net Zero Energy Buildings though an Article 6 pilot in the social housing sector, which would reduce energy consumption, reduce emissions, reduce energy poverty, reduce energy consumption subsidy payments, and improve public health and energy security. Such a pilot could, together with a larger policy roadmap towards increasingly stringent energy efficiency standards, help put the Colombian building sector on a path towards decarbonisation and alignment with the Paris Agreement.

The Paris Agreement combines collective goals with individual countries' contributions. This hybrid approach does not guarantee that the individual contributions add up to what is required to meet the collective goals. The Paris Agreement therefore established the Global Stocktake. Its task is to "assess collective progress" towards achieving the long-term goals of the agreement as of 2023 and every five years thereafter. Corresponding to this role, this paper addresses three questions: What should an effective Global Stocktake look like? What information and data are needed? Is it possible to execute an effective Global Stocktake within the mandate of the Paris Agreement?

This report is part of the "Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions" (NDCs) project (FKZ 3716 4111 80), which considers NDC implementation in 10 countries: Colombia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Indonesia, Iran, Kenya, Marshall Islands, Morocco, Peru, and Viet Nam. This project places a special emphasis on identifying potential barriers to NDC implementation and mitigation potentials which could go beyond the current NDCs. The country reports analyse the NDCs in terms of their robustness and coherence with other national or sectoral plans and targets, and put them into the context of additional mitigation potentials and other national circumstances. For countries where coal plays a critical role in consumption or national production, the analysis covers further details on this sector, including the economic relevance and local impacts of coal production or consumption. The content is based on available literature from research and public sector information on policies and institutions. This report summarises the findings on coal given in the country reports of Colombia, Indonesia and Viet Nam. It has been augmented by a literature analysis on global coal trends and structural change in coal mining areas as well as very recent country specific publications which became available only after the finalisation of the three country reports. The project was suggested and is financed by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, supervised by the German Environment Agency and carried out by independent think tanks - NewClimate Institute and Wuppertal Institute. The country reports are a continuation of similar previous efforts (project numbers 3713 41 102, 3711 41 120, 360 16 022, 364 01 003 and 363 01 128) and aim to inform policy makers and the interested public about the implementation of NDCs in individual countries. The choice of countries is based on developing countries with which Germany works closely on climate change topics. The country reports are scientific in nature, and all suggestions are derived by the authors from careful analysis, having in mind the individual backgrounds of countries. They aim to increase knowledge about implementation of mitigation potentials to meet the globally agreed goal of staying within a temperature increase of 1.5°C or well below 2°C above preindustrial levels, without intending to prescribe specific policies.

In den Jahren 2010, 2015 und 2017 erschienen vom Umweltbundesamt (UBA) beauftragte Analysen des deutschen Marktes für freiwillige Treibhausgaskompensation. Die Analysen zeigten einen stetig wachsenden Markt, der jedoch die bestehende Nachfrage nach Zertifikaten aus Klimaschutzprojekten in Deutschland nicht bedienen kann. Um die Entwicklung des Marktes der letzten Jahre nachzuvollziehen sowie die Nachfrage nach Zertifikaten aus deutschen Klimaschutzprojekten im Lichte der Anforderungen des Übereinkommens von Paris zu untersuchen, erfolgt eine erneute Analyse des deutschen Marktes zur freiwilligen Treibhausgaskompensation für die Jahre 2017 bis 2020. Neben der Marktanalyse werden fünf Länder mit inländischen Märkten zur Kompensation vorgestellt und untersucht. Die Untersuchung soll Rückschlüsse auf die Einführung eines inländischen Kompensationsmarktes in Deutschland unterstützen. Abschließend werden Herausforderungen, Barrieren und Perspektiven für die freiwillige Nutzung von Klimaschutzprojekten in Deutschland abgeleitet. Die Analyse zeigt das Spannungsfeld auf, das sich für Projekte zur Kompensation in Deutschland ergibt, wenn Anforderungen des Übereinkommens von Paris, sowie nationale und europäische Regulierungen berücksichtigt werden. Die Untersuchungen sind Teil des Forschungsvorhabens "Neue Perspektiven für nationale Klimaschutzprojekte zur Kompensation von Treibhausgasen" (FKZ 3720425050).

As part of the Paris Agreement, countries are mandated to update and enhance their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years — increasing their ambition with every cycle. The first round of NDCs were submitted starting in 2015 as intended nationally determined contributions and countries have submitted or are finalizing their updates for the new cycle in 2020/2021. The purpose of this project was to develop a methodology to systematically assess the design of NDCs and to apply it to 20 NDCs. While there are several tools that analyse NDCs, they are comprehensive, concise, replicable and comparable to a varying degree. Our methodology aims to fill a gap by addressing those criteria and providing new insights into the design of NDCs. We evaluate the NDCs along key elements that are critical for the success of the NDC ambition cycle: 1. Increased mitigation ambition; 2. Comprehensiveness; 3. Implementation plan; and 4. Transparency. We have applied this methodology to 20 NDCs with the aim to include a diversity of geographic contexts as well as NDCs with different emphasis, target types, and approaches to climate change mitigation. The analysis shows that the selected countries fare generally well on comprehensiveness and transparency in their new NDCs. The rules under the Paris Agreement on what to include in the NDC and how to describe it show a positive effect; most countries provide the information necessary according to the rules. However, the elements that are critical for the success of the ambition cycle, i.e. raising ambition in each round and having a plan to implement the targets, are only partially covered by many countries. Of the analysed NDCs, less than half showed higher mitigation ambition compared to their first NDC. Many targets remained unchanged or were found to be less ambitious due to changes in parameters such as baseline emissions. Many countries lack a clear implementation plan for the targets: In many cases measures have not yet been included in national legislation, but preparations are underway especially for those countries that increased their targets. Currently, governments can make their NDCs "look good" by fulfilling all requirements on comprehensiveness and transparency, but only a deeper analysis reveals that their NDCs are not more ambitious or lack an implementation plan. To uncover such deficiencies and to make the ambition cycle of the Paris Agreement a success, a careful checking of NDCs is necessary.