Suchergebnisse

This paper sets out to show efficiency gains and/or losses of trade reforms in Malawi using simulation experiments in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Among others, the study shows that a 50 percent tariff cut coupled with fixed government savings has the same impact on selected macroeconomic variables when capital is mobile as when it is activity specific. When capital is activity-specific, the tariff cut has a positive impact on labour income in the non-agricultural sector and a similar impact on capital income in commercial agriculture. Overall labour income in the agricultural sector is unaffected while the impact on capital income in small scale agriculture and non-agriculture sectors is negative. When capital is mobile, the tariff cut leads to a fall in the capital income in small scale agriculture. The study further shows that doubling foreign aid to Malawi increases consumption and adversely affects the production side of the economy. DOI:10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n3p307

This paper studies the evolution of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), tracing it from its inception in 1889 as the Customs Union Convention, the worlds first customs union, to its current status. While the union has operated under different agreements, which have been negotiated and renegotiated with changing circumstances, the study identifies the agreements of 1889, 1910, 1969 and 2002 as key to the unions transformation. It is observed that SACU has evolved from a geopolitical organisation with a repressive colonial foundation to a well-integrated regional trading bloc that is perceived as a possible springboard for larger regional trading blocs in Africa. The study further explores evidence of declining SACU revenue and investigates its implications on government expenditures in the small members of the union; namely, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS countries). It is found that among the members of the union, Lesotho and Swaziland are the most dependent on SACU transfers and, consequently, the most vulnerable to the current downward trend in SACU revenue. While Namibia has traditionally relied on diamond exports, it has also been receiving large SACU transfers relative to its GDP. In addition, the study observes that the present SACU revenue sharing formula adopted in 2002 exposes the BLNS countries to instabilities arising from global business cycles more than it does South Africa.

Whether to increase taxes or cut spending is an important question with profound policy implications, especially as countries attempt to deal with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study, therefore, investigated the relationship between revenues and spending in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), where concerns about rising debt and deficits were raised prior to the pandemic. A panel bootstrap Granger-causality technique was used to analyze annual frequency data covering the 1980–2018 period. To our best knowledge, this was the first study in Africa to simultaneously account for cross-country differences and cross-section dependence. The findings of the study have in-depth implications for fiscal policy and adjustments towards budgetary equilibria. The study found no evidence of causality between revenues and spending in eleven SADC member states, suggesting that to balance their respective budgets, governments in these countries can alter either spending or revenues, or both. However, in Botswana, we found evidence of the tax-spend hypothesis, implying that governments should consider altering revenues to eliminate budget imbalances. Finally, evidence of the spend-tax hypothesis was found in Mauritius and Mozambique, suggesting that past and current expenditures drive revenues in these countries. Accordingly, cutting spending would be an ideal policy recourse to deal with budgetary disequilibrium.

Svrha ovog rada je modeliranje varijacija brazilskih valutnih tečajeva i globalnih šokova kako bi se utvrdilo imaju li globalne cijene nafte i međunarodne kamatne stope (globalni šokovi) utjecaj na varijacije valutnog tečaja u Brazilu. Nakon utvrđivanja prisutnosti ARCH efekta i stacionarnosti zapisa podataka, procijenjeni su simetrični GARCH (1,1) model zajedno s dva asimetrična modela EGARCH (1,1) i APARCH (1,1) koristeći teoretski model Kamala et al. (2012.). Rezultati pokazuju da GARCH (1,1) model najbolje odgovara brazilskim varijacijama valutnog tečaja, dok se selektirani model Student t distribucija smatra poželjnim modelom koji se dobro uklapa u usporedbi s alternativama. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da globalni šokovi značajno utječu na brazilske valutne tečajeve. Stoga, preporuka je da brazilska vlada razmotri utjecaj cijena nafte i globalnih kamatnih stopa pri oblikovanju i provedbi politika koje utječu na valutni tečaj. ; The purpose of this paper is to model variations of Brazil's exchange rates and global shocks in order to establish if global oil prices and international interest rates (global shocks) have any impact on exchange rate variations in Brazil. After establishing the existence of ARCH effects and ensuring the stationarity of the data set, we estimate the symmetric GARCH (1,1) model along with two asymmetric EGARCH (1,1) and APARCH (1,1) models using the theoretical model of Kamal et al. (2012). The results show that the GARCH (1,1) model provides the best fit for Brazil's exchange rate variations while the model selection chooses the Student's t distribution as the preferable model of good fit compared to the alternatives. The study results show that Brazil's exchange rates are significantly influenced by global shocks. Accordingly, we recommend that the Brazilian government should consider the impact of oil prices and global interest rates when formulating and implementing policies that impact on the exchange rate.

Abstract

Research background: The need for diversification of the Nigerian economy has been emphasized and the manufacturing sector has a major role in this. Being an oil producing country, monetary policy is an important macroeconomic policy that has always been used to manage the influence of oil price shock on the manufacturing sector.

Purpose: The study examines the relationship between oil price shock, the monetary transmission mechanism and manufacturing output growth in Nigeria.

Research methodology: The study applied the structural vector auto regression (SVAR) modelling technique and a descriptive analysis.

Results: The results of the study show that the exchange rate is mostly affected by the oil price shock, while the monetary policy instruments and inflation rate are also very responsive to the exchange rate shock. The manufacturing sector output growth has also been shown to be strongly affected by the inflation rate and monetary policy shocks.

Novelty: The study has revealed the most effective channel via which oil price shocks affect manufacturing output. The exchange rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is the most significant channel through which oil price shock affects manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. This shows that effective management of the exchange rate policy via the appropriate monetary policy approach can be used to minimize the adverse effect of oil price shocks on Nigerian manufacturing output.

This study determines how political institution (factor) and oil prices play a significant role in exchange rate instabilities in Nigeria between and . Employing a VECM model with time series and structural analysis, the study decomposes the oil prices into positive and negative shocks. The findings show a symmetric impact from positive and negative oil shocks while political/institutional factor, on the contrary, indicates an asymmetric impact on exchange rates. The study, therefore, recommends that strong political institution that promotes good governance, accountability and transparency should be put in place. This will untimely reduce the cost of importation that prevents the country from reaping the benefits of positive oil price shocks. While this study employs one of the unique approaches to the study of exchange rates worldwide, it also provides insights to how institutional/political factor contribute to exchange rate instability in Nigeria. ; This study determines how political institution (factor) and oil prices play a significant role in exchange rate instabilities in Nigeria between and . Employing a VECM model with time series and structural analysis, the study decomposes the oil prices into positive and negative shocks. The findings show a symmetric impact from positive and negative oil shocks while political/institutional factor, on the contrary, indicates an asymmetric impact on exchange rates. The study, therefore, recommends that strong political institution that promotes good governance, accountability and transparency should be put in place. This will untimely reduce the cost of importation that prevents the country from reaping the benefits of positive oil price shocks. While this study employs one of the unique approaches to the study of exchange rates worldwide, it also provides insights to how institutional/political factor contribute to exchange rate instability in Nigeria.