Suchergebnisse

The past year has witnessed a major shift in the relationships between the four Central European countries that make up the Visegrád Group. In matters related to migration, the members of the alliance have worked together in Brussels as a cohesive bloc throughout 2016. But in the wake of Brexit, simmering internal divisions have arisen within this regional alliance over the EU's future. The Visegrád Group acts as an amplifier, an ad hoc coalition, reinforcing regional positions where they exist. Its diplomatic infrastructure and other structural factors are here to stay, but the key drivers of its stances are now domestic politics and the role of the countries' leaders. In the absence of a shared vision for the future of Europe and the role of EU institutions, the honeymoon period seems to be over. A 'conservative revolution' in Poland has created an illiberal axis with Hungary, where a sovereigntist narrative holds sway, while the Czech and Slovak governments have maintained a more pragmatic line on the EU. The new risk is that reinventing the EU will come at the expense of (divided) Central Europeans.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán wants to postpone Ukraine's accession talks and accelerate those of the Balkan candidates. In fact, he might slow down EU enlargement in general, which was only recently revived and which Hungary strongly supports. (IPQ)

Nach seinem Wahlsieg hofft Viktor Orbán, eine euroskeptische Allianz in der EU zu schmieden, um noch mehr Einfluss auf den Kurs Europas zu gewinnen und seine Stellung daheim zu sichern. Die EU sollte alle rechtlichen Möglichkeiten ausschöpfen und den politischen Druck erhöhen. Sonst wird Ungarn zu einem antidemokratischen Vorbild. (IP)

The enlargement and reform debate has started, and some progress should be possible before the European elections in June 2024, says Anna Lührmann, minister for Europe in the German Foreign Office. (IPQ)

Slovakia is facing a decisive moment. At the end of February, the country will hold its first general elections since mass anti-corruption protests shook its political establishment and toppled veteran populist prime minister Robert Fico. While Slovakia is seen as a leader in the fight for democracy in Central Europe, political programs and ideas have been side-lined by a pre-election campaign that has turned into a clash of emotions and populist moves.

The next months will show whether Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán can retain his influence in Europe even outside its largest political family. Having left the center-right European People's Party before his party was finally pushed out, Orbán is now trying to regroup and unite the populist and Euroskeptic forces in European Parliament. What looks like a defeat could still be turned to his advantage if it leads to a lasting reshuffle of political alliances and strengthens illiberal voices.

What was supposed to be a simple reelection campaign for President Andrzej Duda could be a political turning point for Poland. Contrary to expectations that authoritative leaders would use the pandemic to consolidate power, it exposed the ruling party's vulnerability. The outcome of the new elections, which are expected to take place in late June or early July 2020, is now uncertain. Europe should pay attention, because a new president could help reconfigure domestic politics and restore Poland's position as a more constructive EU partner.

Part of French President Emmanuel Macron's European policy is to improve the position of his country in the Eastern European member states of the European Union. Although this is not a change of strategy, but only a new method, it creates favorable conditions for intensified Franco-German dialogue on European strategic issues.

As the European Union's next designated HR/VP, Josep Borrell will have to deal with major global challenges and the EU's internal travails to shape foreign policy more assertively. In particular, two flash points on the EU's doorstep - the eastern Ukraine and Serbia-Kosovo - will be early tests of Borell's ability to enhance the Union's ability to project influence as a global power and help build its capacity for strategic autonomy.

The Czech election result seems worrying at first: Yet another populist leader has been catapulted into power in Central Europe. But billionaire Andrej Babiš and his populist ANO party, which received almost 30 percent of the vote, is not necessarily going to push the Czech Republic into an illiberal and anti-EU direction.

As protests continue to galvanize Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko is consolidating his grip on power. Volatile domestic dynamics - and Russia's reactions to them - will shape the discredited regime's future. This paper outlines four possible scenarios for Belarus up to one year from now. They include options for Russia and the EU, whose strategic objectives differ, but whose short-term interests align: preventing bloodshed, avoiding open geopolitical conflict, and preparing for a post-Lukashenko transition.

Trotz ihrer unterschiedlichen Positionierungen haben Frankreichs Präsident Emmanuel Macron, Italiens Vizepremier Matteo Salvini und Ungarns Premierminister Viktor Orbán eines gemeinsam: Sie treten im Vorfeld der Europawahlen als Protagonisten unterschiedlicher Narrative auf, die das Europäische Parlament signifikant verändern können.

The stagnating EU accession process needs political will and procedural changes allowing eastern candidates to advance. In the meantime, they should be more supported to use the full potential of existing opportunities for gradual economic and sectoral integration with the EU. An upgraded Eastern Partnership needs a comprehensive security dimension linking resilience, connectivity, and defense policy, as well as cooperation in the area of the Common Security and Defence Policy. The protracted regional conflicts (in Moldova and the South Caucasus) require a more active EU engagement as existing OSCE formats continue to be blocked, and Russia's role and military presence weaken. New openings for conflict resolution mean higher demand for the EU's diplomatic, monitoring, and peacekeeping capacities. A new eastern Neighborhood Policy should be designed for the wider region, connecting the Black Sea and the South Caucasus with Central Asia and thus creating viable alternatives to the competing geoeconomic and governance "offers" of China, Russia, and Turkey.

Hungary and Poland are threatening to veto the EU's new budgetary arrangements if other governments apply the rule of law mechanism to them. It is becoming clear, however, that the new EU financial framework, and the much-heralded recovery fund, are more vital to Eastern Europe than to Europe's South and that time is not on the side of the former. Awareness of this fact allows for a cool assessment of the pair's bargaining positions - and of the precedent that any hasty resolution to the crisis will set.

Under its new government, Montenegro has unblocked its accession process. Although the small country faces many obstacles, it now represents the best opportunity for the EU to regain momentum for enlargement in the Western Balkans. The period until mid-2024 will be pivotal for reform progress in Podgorica and adequate response from Brussels. Their moves will also be closely watched by Russia, which is prepared to exploit new vulnerabilities in this NATO member strategically located between Serbia and the Adriatic Coast.