Suchergebnisse

This study analyzes how perceptions of the popularity of political parties (i.e., the current opinion climate) and expectations about parties' future electoral performance (i.e., the future opinion climate) are formed. Theoretically, the paper integrates research on the sources of public opinion perception and empirically draws on a representative survey carried out before the 2013 German federal election. We show that the perceived media slant and opinions perceived in one's personal surroundings are closely related to perceptions of party popularity, whereas individual recall of poll results and personal opinions about the parties are not. However, poll results are shown to be the single most important predictor of expectations about the parties' future electoral success.

"We analyze the formation of judgments about the perceived popularity of political parties (perceived current opinion climate) and expectations about their future electoral performance (perceived future opinion climate). Based on representative survey data collected in Berlin during the run-up to the German federal elections 2013 we can show that perceived media slant and opinions in the personal social environment serve as the most important predictors of perceived party popularity. Interestingly, individual recall of current poll results hardly influences popularity evaluations. However, when forming expectations regarding the parties' future success poll results are the single most important source. For some parties, we also found respondents to project their political preferences on party popularity and expectations." (author's abstract)

Was für ein Paukenschlag! Bei der Bundestagswahl 2013 scheidet die FDP aus dem deutschen Parlament aus, der »Alternative für Deutschland« gelingt dagegen fast der Sprung nach Berlin. CDU und CSU erringen nahezu die Hälfte der Mandate. »Die Linke« geht als drittstärkste Partei aus den Wahlen hervor. SPD und Grüne sind nach dem Urnengang hin- und her gerissen angesichts enttäuschender Resultate und der verlockenden Aussicht, der nächsten Bundesregierung anzugehören. Renommierte Experten legen in diesem Band eine detaillierte Analyse der zurückliegenden Bundestagswahl vor. Im Mittelpunkt ihrer Untersuchungen steht dabei nicht die Momentaufnahme des »22. September«, sondern die langfristige Perspektive: Welche Rückschlüsse lassen sich aus der Wahl für das Parteiensystem, das Wählerverhalten und die politische Kommunikation in Deutschland ziehen?