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The book has described the dynamics of disease occurrence in populations and gives an overview of the major known health determinants of mortality decline, health risk factors and health services, and studies the health interventions options in two example diseases i.e. diabetes and stroke. We postulated that a lifetime multi-state modelling approach can be useful to describe disease processes and health care costs in populations and outlined the approach in the second chapter. After describing various case studies in the five application sections, a number of conclusions can be drawn. The multi-state models allow for analysing dynamic disease processes throughout a lifetime in relation to the actual stage of the health transition in a country. The dynamic components are threefold: 1) the substitution, clustering and synergism of health determinants and diseases, 2) the effectiveness and efficiency of health services, and 3) the effect of ageing of populations in quantitative and qualitative terms as both early and late survival improves. At all stages, there is a trade-off with other diseases when a first disease is treated. The model approach quantifies these effects and allows for an analysis in time. Chapter 4 shows that substitution and competition of multiple health risks, at all ages, may partly explain the lack of results of the introduction of health programmes as in international co-operation in health. The same chapter shows that multiple, also low cost, roads to population health exist by elimination of health risks and by improvement of disease survival. Computation of optimal pathways is possible. The chapters on stroke and diabetes show the relationship of health intervention mixes options, available resources, health benefits, and optimisation options. The stroke analysis shows that, in case of high available budgets, costly clinical interventions for all patients can be more cost-effective than low cost clinical interventions for small groups of high-risk patients. The diabetes chapter shows that, in case of low available budgets, low cost clinical interventions for small groups of high-risk patients can be more cost-effective than prevention. The general conclusion is that multi-state models allow for computation of multiple, optimum paths to health throughout a lifetime, depending on the societal resources available. Health policy relevance As multi-state models allow for quantification of the health and costs influences of each health determinant, including health interventions, they facilitate rational policy making. Broad policy questions in relation to the role of health determinants and health care provision can be specified, modelled and explored like e.g. the use of a zero health expenditure scenarios (chapter 4) and in the use of interventions proposed in guidelines (chapter 5-8). For other broad or detailed policy questions the model approach can be expanded or simplified according depending on the nature of the question. Ethical and political choices will have to remain with the domain of politicians and the public. A lot of the evidence-based approaches, prominent on the national and international agendas for health policy and health research, frequently and increasingly make use of health modelling approaches. It is unclear what the implications of this policy approach are for the production and distribution of health in populations, given the notion of multiple determinants in health. It is equally unclear what kind of barriers there are to the adoption of evidence-based approaches in health care practice. Chapter 9 outlines the ways in which health policy is informed by the results from health research and health modelling. It summarises approaches in health at three impact levels: inter-sectoral assessment, national health care policy, and evidence-based medicine in everyday practice. Consensus is growing on the role of broad and specific health determinants, including health care, as well as on priority setting based on the burden of diseases. In spite of methodological constraints, there is a demand for inter-sectoral assessments, especially in health sector reform. Initiators of policy changes in other sectors may be held responsible for providing the evidence related to health. There are limited possibilities for priority setting at the national health care policy level. Hence, there is a decentralisation of responsibilities for resource use towards providers and health insurance companies. They are encouraged to assume agency roles for both patients and society and ask to promote and deliver effective and efficient health care. Governments need to design national frameworks to strengthen their organisation to enhance their roles. The formulation of national health guidelines supported by evidence on effectiveness and efficiency will be one essential element in this process. With the increasing number of advocates for the enhancement of population health in the policy arenas, evidence-based approaches provide the insights, information, and tools to help with priority setting. RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS Model validation The book observes the start of multi-state modelling of population health in epidemiology, demography, public health, and health economics research. Up to now there are relatively few related research efforts. The designs, implementation, and application of generic multi-state approaches have been initiated. Important is the validity of the results. More model calibration and validation can and should take place. Validation can be structural validation (chapter 3) or external validation, using external time series (chapters 4 and 5). The developed models have relatively few free variables that can be used for calibration and reproduction of population-based time series of morbidity and mortality. An important free variable to be use for calibration is the non-attributable incidence of diseases. In combination with the risk-attributable fraction, it results in the observed disease incidence. The population attributive risk approach should be developed further to account for regression dilution bias and the occurrence of multiple diseases and multiple determinants. Another important calibration parameter is the effectiveness of prevention and curative services in daily settings. Related parameters, such as coverage, are usually based on cross-sectional studies. Incidentally, longitudinal follow-up may be able to give data on day-to-day effectiveness. Also comparison with special population groups that have remained without an intervention may give supportive evidence like studies on religious, cultural groups, on the uninsured, or on 'natural' experiments like war or strikes. A third group of calibration parameters is disease-specific mortality and morbidity. This group can be used for the large disease categories that we used for the applications (chapter 3-5). This would be for Mexico for the period 1950-1990 and for India for the period 1980-1990 based on the Federal Sample Registration Survey. Last, disease-specific calibration is possible for The Netherlands 1900-1990 and also, but with more uncertainties, from 1860 onwards. Expert validation of model structure and assumptions could be more explored and transparency increased. Examples are review procedures and panel discussions with researchers, policy makers and the public or its representatives. This would also give more room to account for the more subjective or political choices to be a priori made. Future research The main characteristic of the multi-state approach is a comprehensive consideration of disease occurrence, disability and the cost of disease through a lifetime at the population

Economic evidence is influential in health technology assessment world-wide. Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPG) can enable economists to include economic information on health care provision. Application of economic evidence in CPGs, and its integration into clinical practice and national decision making is hampered by objections from professions, paucity of economic evidence or lack of policy commitment. The use of state-of-art economic methodologies will improve this. Economic evidence can be graded by 'checklists' to establish the best evidence for decision making given methodological rigor. New economic evaluation checklists, Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA) and other decision criteria enable health economists to impact on decision making world-wide. We analyse the methodologies for integrating economic evidence into CPG agencies globally, including the Agency of Health Research and Quality (AHRQ) in the USA, National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and Australian political reforms. The Guidelines and Economists Network International (GENI) Board members from Australia, UK, Canada and Denmark presented the findings at the conference of the International Health Economists Association (IHEA) and we report conclusions and developments since. The Consolidated Guidelines for the Reporting of Economic Evaluations (CHEERS) 24 item check list can be used by AHRQ, NHMRC, other CPG and health organisations, in conjunction with the Drummond ten-point check list and a questionnaire that scores that checklist for grading studies, when assessing economic evidence. Cost-effectiveness Analysis (CEA) thresholds, opportunity cost and willingness-to-pay (WTP) are crucial issues for decision rules in CEA generally, including end-of-life therapies. Limitations of inter-rater reliability in checklists can be addressed by including more than one assessor to reach a consensus, especially when impacting on treatment decisions. We identify priority areas to generate economic evidence for CPGs by NHMRC, AHRQ, and other agencies. The evidence may cover demand for care issues such as involved time, logistics, innovation price, price sensitivity, substitutes and complements, WTP, absenteeism and presentism. Supply issues may include economies of scale, efficiency changes, and return on investment. Involved equity and efficiency measures may include cost-of-illness, disease burden, quality-of-life, budget impact, cost-effective ratios, net benefits and disparities in access and outcomes. Priority setting remains essential and trade-off decisions between policy criteria can be based on MCDA, both in evidence based clinical medicine and in health planning.

Economic evidence is influential in health technology assessment world-wide. Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPG) can enable economists to include economic information on health care provision. Application of economic evidence in CPGs, and its integration into clinical practice and national decision making is hampered by objections from professions, paucity of economic evidence or lack of policy commitment. The use of state-of-art economic methodologies will improve this. Economic evidence can be graded by 'checklists' to establish the best evidence for decision making given methodological rigor. New economic evaluation checklists, Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA) and other decision criteria enable health economists to impact on decision making world-wide. We analyse the methodologies for integrating economic evidence into CPG agencies globally, including the Agency of Health Research and Quality (AHRQ) in the USA, National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and Australian political reforms. The Guidelines and Economists Network International (GENI) Board members from Australia, UK, Canada and Denmark presented the findings at the conference of the International Health Economists Association (IHEA) and we report conclusions and developments since. The Consolidated Guidelines for the Reporting of Economic Evaluations (CHEERS) 24 item check list can be used by AHRQ, NHMRC, other CPG and health organisations, in conjunction with the Drummond ten-point check list and a questionnaire that scores that checklist for grading studies, when assessing economic evidence. Cost-effectiveness Analysis (CEA) thresholds, opportunity cost and willingness-to-pay (WTP) are crucial issues for decision rules in CEA generally, including end-of-life therapies. Limitations of inter-rater reliability in checklists can be addressed by including more than one assessor to reach a consensus, especially when impacting on treatment decisions. We identify priority areas to generate economic evidence for CPGs by NHMRC, AHRQ, and other agencies. The evidence may cover demand for care issues such as involved time, logistics, innovation price, price sensitivity, substitutes and complements, WTP, absenteeism and presentism. Supply issues may include economies of scale, efficiency changes, and return on investment. Involved equity and efficiency measures may include cost-of-illness, disease burden, quality-of-life, budget impact, cost-effective ratios, net benefits and disparities in access and outcomes. Priority setting remains essential and trade-off decisions between policy criteria can be based on MCDA, both in evidence based clinical medicine and in health planning.

Background This paper is aimed at critically assessing the extent to which Non-Communicable Disease NCD-related policies introduced in Bangladesh align with the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2013–2020 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. Methods The authors reviewed all relevant policy documents introduced by the Government of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. The literature review targeted scientific and grey literature documents involving internet-based search, and expert consultation and snowballing to identify relevant policy documents. Information was extracted from the documents using a specific matrix, mapping each document against the six objectives of the WHO 2013–2020 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. Results A total of 51 documents were identified. Seven (14%) were research and/or surveys, nine were on established policies (17%), while seventeen (33%) were on action programmes. Five (10%) were related to guidelines and thirteen (25%) were strategic planning documents from government and non-government agencies/institutes. The study covered documents produced by the Government of Bangladesh as well as those by quasi-government and non-government organizations irrespective of the extent to which the intended policies were implemented. Conclusions The policy analysis findings suggest that although the government has initiated many NCD-related policies or programs, they lacked proper planning, implementation and monitoring. Consequently, Bangladesh over the years had little success in effectively addressing the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. It is imperative that future research critically assess the effectiveness of national NCD policies by monitoring their implementation and level of population coverage

Background: Current international policy for schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) control emphasises mass administration of deworming drugs in school-based programmes. However, this approach is insufficient to control the transmission of these diseases, and their burden in non-school cohorts is recognised, albeit under-researched. This research will investigate the feasibility and acceptability of expanding access to praziquantel (PZQ) against schistosomiasis, and albendazole (ALB) against STH, to communities in selected transmission settings in Ghana. (2) Methods: A three-site longitudinal study will be implemented to investigate the effectiveness of expanding treatment strategies for PZQ and ALB to community members. In the context of community mass drug administration (to preschool children, school non-attending children, and adults, including pregnant women), the intervention will be assessed in a random sample of community members, at baseline with follow-up at 6, 12, and 18 months. In each community, 658 participants will be enrolled, and 314 followed up at each time point. The primary outcome measure is the prevalence of infection of Schistosoma haematobium and/or S. mansoni at study endpoint, as assessed by longitudinal surveys. Secondary outcomes are to quantify the infection of schistosomiasis and STH infections in non-treated cohorts, reductions in prevalence of STH, and intensity of schistosomiasis and STH, and treatment coverage. Nested within this study will be qualitative, cost-benefit, and cost-effectiveness evaluations that will explore accessibility, feasibility, and economic impact of expanded treatment from different complementary perspectives. (3) Discussion: Using a multidisciplinary approach, this study will generate evidence for improved availability, acceptability, affordability, and accessibility to deworming drugs against schistosomiasis and STH to individuals and communities in Ghana. This is likely to have considerable research, programmatic, and political value to contribute evidence for national programme policy development within Ghana, and, more broadly, World Health Organization policy development.

(1) Background: Current international policy for schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) control emphasises mass administration of deworming drugs in school-based programmes. However, this approach is insufficient to control the transmission of these diseases, and their burden in non-school cohorts is recognised, albeit under-researched. This research will investigate the feasibility and acceptability of expanding access to praziquantel (PZQ) against schistosomiasis, and albendazole (ALB) against STH, to communities in selected transmission settings in Ghana. (2) Methods: A three-site longitudinal study will be implemented to investigate the effectiveness of expanding treatment strategies for PZQ and ALB to community members. In the context of community mass drug administration (to preschool children, school non-attending children, and adults, including pregnant women), the intervention will be assessed in a random sample of community members, at baseline with follow-up at 6, 12, and 18 months. In each community, 658 participants will be enrolled, and 314 followed up at each time point. The primary outcome measure is the prevalence of infection of Schistosoma haematobium and/or S. mansoni at study endpoint, as assessed by longitudinal surveys. Secondary outcomes are to quantify the infection of schistosomiasis and STH infections in non-treated cohorts, reductions in prevalence of STH, and intensity of schistosomiasis and STH, and treatment coverage. Nested within this study will be qualitative, cost-benefit, and cost-effectiveness evaluations that will explore accessibility, feasibility, and economic impact of expanded treatment from different complementary perspectives. (3) Discussion: Using a multidisciplinary approach, this study will generate evidence for improved availability, acceptability, affordability, and accessibility to deworming drugs against schistosomiasis and STH to individuals and communities in Ghana. This is likely to have considerable research, programmatic, and political ...

(1) Background: Current international policy for schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) control emphasises mass administration of deworming drugs in school-based programmes. However, this approach is insufficient to control the transmission of these diseases, and their burden in non-school cohorts is recognised, albeit under-researched. This research will investigate the feasibility and acceptability of expanding access to praziquantel (PZQ) against schistosomiasis, and albendazole (ALB) against STH, to communities in selected transmission settings in Ghana. (2) Methods: A three-site longitudinal study will be implemented to investigate the effectiveness of expanding treatment strategies for PZQ and ALB to community members. In the context of community mass drug administration (to preschool children, school non-attending children, and adults, including pregnant women), the intervention will be assessed in a random sample of community members, at baseline with follow-up at 6, 12, and 18 months. In each community, 658 participants will be enrolled, and 314 followed up at each time point. The primary outcome measure is the prevalence of infection of Schistosoma haematobium and/or S. mansoni at study endpoint, as assessed by longitudinal surveys. Secondary outcomes are to quantify the infection of schistosomiasis and STH infections in non-treated cohorts, reductions in prevalence of STH, and intensity of schistosomiasis and STH, and treatment coverage. Nested within this study will be qualitative, cost-benefit, and cost-effectiveness evaluations that will explore accessibility, feasibility, and economic impact of expanded treatment from different complementary perspectives. (3) Discussion: Using a multidisciplinary approach, this study will generate evidence for improved availability, acceptability, affordability, and accessibility to deworming drugs against schistosomiasis and STH to individuals and communities in Ghana. This is likely to have considerable research, programmatic, and political value to contribute evidence for national programme policy development within Ghana, and, more broadly, World Health Organization policy development.

Background Lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and trachoma represent the five most prevalent neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). They can be controlled or eliminated by means of safe and cost-effective interventions delivered through programs of Mass Drug Administration (MDA)—also named Preventive Chemotherapy (PCT). The WHO defined targets for NTD control/elimination by 2020, reinforced by the 2012 London Declaration, which, if achieved, would result in dramatic health gains. We estimated the potential economic benefit of achieving these targets, focusing specifically on productivity and out-of-pocket payments. Methods Productivity loss was calculated by combining disease frequency with productivity loss from the disease, from the perspective of affected individuals. Productivity gain was calculated by deducting the total loss expected in the target achievement scenario from the loss in a counterfactual scenario where it was assumed the pre-intervention situation in 1990 regarding NTDs would continue unabated until 2030. Economic benefits from out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) were calculated similarly. Benefits are reported in 2005 US$ (purchasing power parity-adjusted and discounted at 3% per annum from 2010). Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the influence of changes in input parameters. Results The economic benefit from productivity gain was estimated to be I$251 billion in 2011–2020 and I$313 billion in 2021–2030, considerably greater than the total OPPs averted of I$0.72 billion and I$0.96 billion in the same periods. The net benefit is expected to be US$ 27.4 and US$ 42.8 for every dollar invested during the same periods. Impact varies between NTDs and regions, since it is determined by disease prevalence and extent of disease-related productivity loss. Conclusion Achieving the PCT-NTD targets for 2020 will yield significant economic benefits to affected individuals. Despite large uncertainty, these benefits far exceed the investment required by governments and their development partners within all reasonable scenarios. Given the concentration of the NTDs among the poorest households, these investments represent good value for money in efforts to share the world's prosperity and reduce inequity.

BACKGROUND The control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has targets defined by the WHO for 2020, reinforced by the 2012 London Declaration. We estimated the economic impact to individuals of meeting these targets for human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, visceral leishmaniasis and Chagas disease, NTDs controlled or eliminated by innovative and intensified disease management (IDM). METHODS A systematic literature review identified information on productivity loss and out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) related to these NTDs, which were combined with projections of the number of people suffering from each NTD, country and year for 2011-2020 and 2021-2030. The ideal scenario in which the WHO's 2020 targets are met was compared with a counterfactual scenario that assumed the situation of 1990 stayed unaltered. Economic benefit equaled the difference between the two scenarios. Values are reported in 2005 US$, purchasing power parity-adjusted, discounted at 3% per annum from 2010. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to quantify the degree of uncertainty around the base-case impact estimate. RESULTS The total global productivity gained for the four IDM-NTDs was I$ 23.1 (I$ 15.9 -I$ 34.0) billion in 2011-2020 and I$ 35.9 (I$ 25.0 -I$ 51.9) billion in 2021-2030 (2.5th and 97.5th percentiles in brackets), corresponding to US$ 10.7 billion (US$ 7.4 -US$ 15.7) and US$ 16.6 billion (US$ 11.6 -US$ 24.0). Reduction in OPPs was I$ 14 billion (US$ 6.7 billion) and I$ 18 billion (US$ 10.4 billion) for the same periods. CONCLUSIONS We faced important limitations to our work, such as finding no OPPs for leprosy. We had to combine limited data from various sources, heterogeneous background, and of variable quality. Nevertheless, based on conservative assumptions and subsequent uncertainty analyses, we estimate that the benefits of achieving the targets are considerable. Under plausible scenarios, the economic benefits far exceed the necessary investments by endemic country governments and their development partners. Given the higher frequency of NTDs among the poorest households, these investments represent good value for money in the effort to improve well-being, distribute the world's prosperity more equitably and reduce inequity.

Background Lung health is a critical area for research in sub-Saharan Africa. The International Multidisciplinary Programme to Address Lung Health and TB in Africa (IMPALA) is a collaborative programme that seeks to fill evidence gaps to address high-burden lung health issues in Africa. In order to generate demand for and facilitate use of IMPALA research by policy-makers and other decision-makers at the regional level, an analysis of regional lung health policies and stakeholders will be undertaken to inform a programmatic strategy for policy engagement. Methods and analysis This analysis will be conducted in three phases. The first phase will be a rapid desk review of regional lung health policies and stakeholders that seeks to understand the regional lung health policy landscape, which issues are prioritised in existing regional policy, key regional actors, and opportunities for engagement with key stakeholders. The second phase will be a rapid desk review of the scientific literature, expanding on the work in the first phase by looking at the external factors that influence regional lung health policy, the ways in which regional bodies influence policy at the national level, investments in lung health, structures for discussion and advocacy, and the role of evidence at the regional level. The third phase will involve a survey of IMPALA partners and researchers as well as interviews with key regional stakeholders to further shed light on regional policies, including policy priorities and gaps, policy implementation status and challenges, stakeholders, and platforms for engagement and promoting uptake of evidence. Discussion Health policy analysis provides insights into power dynamics and the political nature of the prioritisation of health issues, which are often overlooked. In order to ensure the uptake of new knowledge and evidence generated by IMPALA, it is important to consider these complex factors.