Suchergebnisse

Kao pojava izuzetno drugog trajanja, nasilje ima veliku važnost ne samo u ljudskoj evoluciji i istoriji, već i u savremenom delovanju. Cilj ovog preglednog rada jeste da se, na osnovu literature, prikažu kako uzroci, tako i manifestacije nasilja u društvenom kontekstu. U prvom delu posebna pažnja posvećena je definisanju pojma nasilje, a potom je predstavljena i njegova tipologija. Već u definisanju postoje problemi budući da pojedini autori ističu fizički karatker, dok drugi veruju da pored fizičke sile postoje i emocionalni i duhovni činioci nasilja. Nasilje ima višestruke uzroke. Sa jedne strane, naučnici smatraju da je ono uslovljeno biološkim faktorima (pre svega genetskim i endokrinološkim). Sa druge strane, istraživači, pre svega iz društvenih nauka, ističu da je ova pojava vezana ne samo za biološke, nego i za društvene faktore (siromaštvo, kulturu, rodne uloge itd.). U društvima postoje različiti vidovi nasilja. Pored mnogih oblika kriminaliteta i nasilja u porodici, vrlo važan aspekt igra i političko nasilje koje sprovode podjednako državne ustanove i paradržavne organizacije (kriminalne, fundamentalističke i terorističke grupe). U radu je postavljeno i pitanje da li nasilje opada tokom vremena. Na osnovu drugih radova uočeno je da postoje dve škole mišljenja. Prema jednoj grupi autora (poput Norberta Elijasa i Stivena Pinkera), sa procesom razvoja trgovine i tehnologija i širenjem ideja prosvetiteljstva dolazi do nesumnjivog opadanja nasilja i danas se živi u najsigurnijem od svih vremena. Suprotno tome, njihovi kritičari ističu da nasilje ne samo da nije nestalo, već je dobilo nove oblike i da je masovnije nego ikada.

The article discussesthe structural changes in exports and imports during the transition process in Serbia. To address this issue, we calculated several indicators of the Serbian merchandise trade in the 2000-2018 period. After having computed the absolute growth of export and import and the values of intra-industry trade indices in the period under review, we compared the similarity of the export structure of Serbia and the import structure of the EU, which was used as a referent structure. To detect possible quality improvement of the Serbian trade sector, we analyzed qualitative changes of Serbia's exports (imports), through tendencies of goods at higher levels of processing, using more classifications, as such possible improvement would create important conditions for a sustainable and stronger export growth. After the calculation of trade specialization indicators, all obtained results were compared with those achieved by other Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies. The conclusion is that, despite strong Serbian export growth from 2000 to 2018 and moderate structural improvements, there are no conclusive signs of sufficient convergence to the EU import demand structure or sufficient growth of the share of goods at higher levels of processing in Serbian exports to imply the significant structural improvement of Serbia's trade, compared with CEE countries.

By low participation of investments in GDP, which amounts to about 18%, Serbia is among the negative record holders in analyzed 15 countries of Central and Eastern Europe. To achieve long-term sustainable GDP growth rates, Serbia would have to increase the share of investments in GDP to around 22.2%, which is the average of observed 15 countries of Central and Eastern Europe. To increase the share of investments in GDP, Serbia needs to improve economic environment, increase the share of the public investments in GDP, and improve the business of public companies along with solving problems of social-owned companies in privatization. The largest shortfall of investments, of around 3% of GDP, relates to the private sector, especially when the small and medium domestic companies are concerned. A strong increase of investments, especially those in the production of tradable goods, would not only lead to the acceleration of economic growth but also would improve the overall structure of GDP. This was the case in many of analyzed 15 countries of Central and Eastern Europe, especially in those who are today members of the EU. The growth of investments would remarkabl y speed up the rise of export, so that the Serbian economy, like the Hungarian or Slovakian ones, would achieve high and sustainable economic growth. Solving accumulated problems in the Serbian economy and creating conditions for long-term sustainable growth requires a strong shift in economic policy,as well as acceleration of reforms. First of all, the reforms related to the rule of law.

Despite a pandemic that has brought most of the global economy to its knees, Chinese economic growth continued in 2020 and strongly accelerated in 2021. An almost certain scenario in which China is becoming the leading world economy already brings strong geopolitical implications, primarily in the form of shaking the existing world order, which is practically managed by Washington. The key reason for the strong growth of China's economy is the high share of both savings and investments in GDP (over two-fifths each) in a very long period, together with its impressive technological progress. In this regard, the direct reason for the current tension between the two countries is China's economic transformation towards the upper end of global industrial value chains. Attempts to end China's economic expansion through forced technological unbundling, US trade sanctions, or forced changes in global supply chains, seem doomed to failure given its vast internal market and conquest of entire product ranges or supply chains. America will continue with its efforts to maintain primacy over China in the basic technologies of the future, from artificial intelligence to quantum computing, with the help of huge investments in science. Although the US and China are not necessarily on the path of confrontation, this certainly cannot be ruled out. The aim of this paper is to project the future of the American and Chinese economies' dynamics of GDPs. The applied methodology is based on a linear projection of the GDP growth of both countries in the period after 2026.