Suchergebnisse

Migracije su danas jedna od najaktuelnijih tema u svetu. Najčešći razlozi nastanka su ratovi, zatim, to mogu biti klimatske promene, a postoje i migracije nastale iz ekonomskih razloga, i njihov cilj je potraga za boljom materijalnom egzistencijom, ostvarivanje višeg životnog standarda, bolji uslovi zapošljavanja, obrazovanja, a samim tim i bolji uslovi života. Predmet ove analize su ekonomske migracije i savremena migraciona kretanja, tj. useljavanje i iseljavanje stranaca u zemlje Zapadnog Balkana (ZB). Makroekonomski pokazatelji ukazuju na stabilizaciju na tržištu rada u drugoj deceniji XXI veka, mada ekonomije stagniraju. Postavlja se pitanje da li je to posledica veće stope privrednog rasta ili su indukovani depopulacijom i redukcijom radno aktivnog stanovništva? Cilj rada je da se ukaže na neophodnost upravljanja migracionim tokovima u ovim zemljama i potrebe za usmeravanjem migranata na tržištu rada. Rad se sastoji iz dva dela. U prvom delu se daje pregled dosadašnjih istraživanja o migracijama, pojmu i vrstama migracija. Drugi deo rada se sastoji iz empirijske analize migracija u zemljama Zapadnog Balkana i Srbije i njihovom uticaju na tržište rada i privredni razvoj.

In response to the COVID-19 crisis, a wide range of short-term fiscal, monetary and macroprudential measures have been implemented. The aim of this research is to compare the effects of the package of economic measures implemented in the EU-27 countries and the Republic of Serbia in 2020 according to several criteria, starting from factors which had the impact on the amount of economic aid package to assessing short-term effects on economic activity, labour market and public debt. The results of the research showed that the financial value of the economic aid package in 2020 reflects, above all, the economic capacity and relative wealth of the country, rather than the depth of the crisis that the countries faced. A positive interdependence was found between the financial amount of the economic measures package and the amount of public debt as a percentage of GDP, while a negative interdependence was found between the change in unemployment rate and the volume of economic package aid as a share of GDP. Based on the available data, it is still not possible to determine the positive statistical impact of the economic package aid on economic growth. Such findings are also expected because the measures were primarily tailored to preserve the liquidity of the economy and employment. Besides, a certain period of time is needed for the measures to take effect, which may explain the discrepancy between the amount of aid and the depth of economic activity in 2020. The data showed that the Serbian economy, unlike the Eurozone, recorded moderate debt growth and adequate capitalized banking sector is resistant to credit risk growth.

The article discussesthe structural changes in exports and imports during the transition process in Serbia. To address this issue, we calculated several indicators of the Serbian merchandise trade in the 2000-2018 period. After having computed the absolute growth of export and import and the values of intra-industry trade indices in the period under review, we compared the similarity of the export structure of Serbia and the import structure of the EU, which was used as a referent structure. To detect possible quality improvement of the Serbian trade sector, we analyzed qualitative changes of Serbia's exports (imports), through tendencies of goods at higher levels of processing, using more classifications, as such possible improvement would create important conditions for a sustainable and stronger export growth. After the calculation of trade specialization indicators, all obtained results were compared with those achieved by other Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies. The conclusion is that, despite strong Serbian export growth from 2000 to 2018 and moderate structural improvements, there are no conclusive signs of sufficient convergence to the EU import demand structure or sufficient growth of the share of goods at higher levels of processing in Serbian exports to imply the significant structural improvement of Serbia's trade, compared with CEE countries.

The main objective of this paper is to consider the factors that led to the poor performances of the Serbian agribusiness sector in recent years. Moreover, specific objectives are to discuss the productivity trends in agribusiness sector, to evaluate statistical significance of several important determinants like insufficient domestic demand, low product quality, slow technological changes as well as inadequate state support, and to suggest ways to overcome challenges. A methodology used in the analysis and the results can be employed in a number of ways. It should be noted that panel analysis provides a framework for easy interpretation of determinants that affect the performance of agribusiness sector but also serves as a good empirical confirmation of their statistical significance. On the other hand, the results have implications for the food industry and policy decision making process, as they provide evidence on the current and projected economic performance of food manufacturing industry. .

Germany has always had an essential influence on Serbia's economic development. Today, Germany is Europe's economic and political superstar so this is even more pronounced. Hence, the aim of this paper is to explore the fundamental causal relationship between German and Serbian economy. In doing so, after the introductory part, where we emphasized interconnection in terms of investment, foreign trade, employment, new technologies etc., we are extending our study using quarterly 2004q1-2015q2 GDP data of both Serbia and Germany to estimate the Vector Error Correction model (VECM). The results suggest that there is co-integration between Serbia's and Germany's economic growth. The statistically significant negative coefficient on êt-1 indicates that Serbian GDP responds to a temporary disequilibrium between the Germany and Serbia. On the other hand, Germany does not appear to respond to a disequilibrium between the two economies; the t-ratio on êt-1 is statistically insignificant. These results support the idea that economic conditions in Serbia depend on those in Germany incomparably more than conditions in Germany depend on Serbia. Despite a solid long-term impact, there is not short run causality running from GerGDP to SrbGDP.

Early warning systems (EWSs) are designed to anticipate future crises, giving policymakers optimism that they would be able to make proactive management decisions. The demonstration of EWSs effectiveness in the economy was clear throughout the Asian financial crisis at the end of the 1990s, the financial crisis of 2007-2008, the Great Recession, and the European sovereign debt crisis of 2008-2012. However, EWSs failed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using Eichengreen et al. [13], Kaminsky et al. [23], and Sachs et al. [33] methodology, the paper explains this phenomenon by analyzing the determinants of currency crises episodes in the Republic of Serbia from January 2001 to December 2021. The complexity of the current crisis required a change of approach. As reflected by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, one of the solutions is to develop a Decision-Making Support System (DMSS). EWSs presented here could serve as one of the many inputs in the assessment and identification of financial crises. However, these models are not accurate enough to be used as the sole method to anticipate crises. Like other crisis models, they bring benefits but obviously have their drawbacks. That is why it would be good to put them under the auspices of a more complex DMSS. Again, for now DMSS should be seen just as a better alternative to earlier practice. This is neither a final nor an almighty option, but it must be further worked on in the future.

This paper analyses the determinants of economic growth in the post WWII to the pre-crisis period (1953-2007) using the dynamic generalized methods of moments (GMM) panel approach to determine effects of the real and the monetary determinants. Our results obtained from the panel of 61 countries suggest that economic growth varies between periods, as well as with level of economic development. Real determinants of GDP growth (real per capita GDP level, private consumption, investments, government expenditure, exports, and imports) affect the economic growth in all countries, while the monetary determinants (inflation, interest rate, and foreign direct investment) play more important role in the developed countries.

PE Elektroprivreda Srbije (Electric Power Industry of Serbia - PE EPS) is of a strategic importance for national economy. Long-term policy of depressed electricity price has caused a number of distortions, mainly through direct impact on the operations of EPS and a number of other effects such as irrational consumption, high energy intensity, low charges, high level of technical and commercial losses, etc. Serbia still has the lowest electricity price in Europe, but regulated price model provides a certain profit level for EPS. The aim of this paper is to show the potential that the electric power industry as a branch can have if the Government provides the conditions for its sustainable operation.

The aim of this paper is to present potentials of the most significant EU national markets for imports of fresh raspberries from Serbia. We carried out analysis of three markets with highest trade deficit of fresh raspberries expressed in quantities: Germany, Netherlands and Austria. The paper further analyses production and foreign trade trends in selected countries. According to results of this analysis, we identified monthly periods with highest potential for exports of fresh raspberries from Serbia to target markets. The paper also analyses wholesale prices of fresh raspberries and EU policy of direct support to raspberry producers.