Suchergebnisse

The most important part of the economic cooperation between Serbia and the
EU, in addition to the inflow of foreign direct investments, loans,
remittances (and donations), which predominantly come from the EU countries,
is the exchange of goods and services. From 2000 there has been significant
growth of trade between Serbia and the EU; merchandise exports and imports
increased at double-digit rates over the past 16 and half years. In the same
period, the share of EU in Serbian trade has not significantly changed,
except for the effects of the three EU enlargement (2004, 2007, 2013), and
is almost two-thirds. Having in mind that the countries of CEFTA, excluding
Moldova, is likely to join the EU in the next decade, it is clear that the
importance of trade with the EU would increase, at least nominally. In the
last European Commission staff working document (2016) for Serbia is
emphasized that the new government programme included Serbia's EU accession
as a priority goal. Besides that, Serbia is only moderately prepared in the
area of public administration reform. According to this report, Serbia will
need to align its foreign and security policy progressively with the
European Union's common foreign and security policy in the period up to
accession. The EU is a key strategic partner of Serbia because of its huge
global economic, technological and political significance. The EU is not
just a very important partner, it is, in a way, a reference point for
Serbia, as the modernization of the country, which is a natural priority for
Serbian elites, is virtually inseparable from European integration and full
membership in the EU.

The similarity coefficients of the export structures of Romania, Croatia,
Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina and the import structure of the EU and the U.S.
have increased since 2000, but to date, they have not reached a critical
turning point. This indicates that the qualities of exports from the observed
transitional economies have not rapidly improved, and the export structure
remains relatively unfavourable, particularly when compared to advanced
transitional countries. The most important factors in the success of advanced
transitional economies were: the inflow of foreign direct investment, imports
of modern technology (and later, their own development), innovation,
development of small and medium sized enterprises, foreign competition, the
development of a market economy and macroeconomic stability. The export
structures of Romania, Croatia, Serbia and Bosnia correlate with improvement
in the process of transition in the observed countries. In 2009 Bosnia had
the absolute lowest level of similarity coefficient among the studied
countries, followed by Serbia, Romania and Croatia, which corresponds to the
overall economic performance and foreign trade of the observed economies.

The author analyzes the influence of heterogeneity of religious-ethnic structure on economic growth. Most studies show that extraordinary national-religious diversification has a negative impact on economic performance of countries. However, the institutional arrangements that involve a significant degree of decentralization may be a factor of relaxation of ethnic and religious, i.e. political animosity. Positive economic experiences of some institutional and ethnically complex countries show that the single economic policy is possible and that strong the national heterogeneity is not necessarily a negative factor for economic development if there are viable democratic institutions.

Rad ima za cilj da ispita same terminološke kontroverze vezane za pojam novog hladnog rata. Intencija rada je i da se odgovori na pitanje šta će odlučititi pobednika u sukobu dve sile, posebno u kontekstu američko-kineskog "trgovinskog rata" koji je smanjio međusobnu zavisnost dve strane, dajući prostor za divergentnije spoljnopolitičko ponašanje. Dodatno, namera rada je i analiza uticaja rata u Ukrajini i sankcija prema Ruskoj Federaciji na odnose Vašingtona i Pekinga. Analizom sadržaja relevantne literature došlo se do sledećih zaključaka: (a) Intelektualni alati "starog hladnog rata" i "obuzdavanja" ne mogu puno pomoći kreatorima politike u Vašingtonu i Pekingu da se nose sa geopolitičkim izazovima današnjice; (b) Iako Vašington i Peking insistiraju da nisu u "novom hladnom ratu", takva analogija je sve češća u diskusijama o odnosima dve države i one se često ponašaju kao da su u njemu. Suštinski element starog hladnog rata – "stanje neprijateljstva bez oružanog sukoba" – je prisutan, pošto obe zemlje traže moć i uticaj, ili žele da opstruišu ili obuzdaju jedna drugu gradeći nove bezbednosne arhitekture, trgovinske i finansijske režime i razvijajući sisteme regulacije tehnologije i globalnih normi; v) Duboke veze između ekonomija dve suprostavljene supersile, međusobna zavisnost od tehnologije, trgovine i podataka nikada nisu postojale u originalnom Hladnom ratu, a prekid privredne saradnje gurnuo bi obe države i svet u duboku višegodišnju depresiju. Ova međupovezanost otvara mogućnosti koegzistencije, koje mogu dovesti i do kraja tzv. "Drugog hladnog rata".

Ovaj članak posvećen je u literaturi više puta ponovljenim tezama prema kojima je srpsko stanovništvo tokom poznog srednjeg veka bilo jednako brojno kao narodi pojedinih zapadoevropskih država, nakon čega je posledicom ratova, seoba i asimilacije do savremenog doba postalo višestruko malobrojnije od njih. Analizirajući poznate podatke o brojnosti stanovništva Srbije i srpskih zemalja, te balkanskih i zapadnoevropskih društava, tokom prethodnih hiljadu godina, došli smo do nešto drugačijih zaključaka koji su uporedno predstavljeni u ovom radu.

Pandemija KOVID-19 i s njom povezana ekonomska kriza katalizuje rebalans u globalnoj moći, od Zapada ka Istoku, što se odražava i na valutna tržišta. Procene su da će značajno ojačati uticaj renminbija (RMB) tokom treće decenije 21. veka, da bi na kraju tog perioda on postao treća najveća rezervna valuta. Ovo je povezano sa rastućom spremnošću stranih investitora da uđu na jedno od retkih tržišta kapitala za koje se očekuje značajan rast u post-KOVID-19 eri, pre svega zahvaljujući ubrzanju liberalizacije kineskog finansijskog tržišta i očekivanoj apresijaciji RMB tokom 2020-ih. Kineski pomaci na razvoju prve suverene digitalne valute će takođe imati veliku važnost za internacionalizaciju RMB. Ogromna veličina kineske ekonomije, koja će 2028. verovatno prestići američku, i rastuća uloga RMB-a predstavljaju do sada najozbiljniji izazov za SAD i dolar. U nadolazećem multipolarnom svetu može se zamisliti da dolar nastavlja da igra pretežnu, ali ne kao sada ekskluzivnu ulogu, u međunarodnoj trgovini i finansijama. Dakle, jasno je da je RMB još uvek daleko od svetske rezervne valute, koja zahteva punu konvertibilnost i potpunu liberalizaciju tržišta kapitala, ali se put ka tropolnom monetarnom sistemu, koga bi činili dolar, evro i renminbi, nazire.

Tehnološki napredak koji je Kina uspela da postigne u poslednje dve decenije, čini je daleko najozbiljnijim izazivačem za globalnu hegemoniju sa kojim su se dve anglosaksonske zemlje (prvo Britanija, a zatim SAD) susrele u poslednja skoro tri veka. Uporedo sa trenutnim trgovinskim ratom, SAD i Kina su zapletene u rastuću konkurenciju radi dominacije u različitim poljima tehnologije sledeće generacije, pre svega 5G mrežama i veštačkoj inteligenciji (AI). Suštinski, nadmetanje je oko toga ko će kontrolisati infrastrukturu i standarde informacione tehnologije na globalnom nivou.

Beležeći konstantan snažan trgovinski deficit sa Kinom, SAD su se nadale da će povećanje tarifa i jačanje ekonomskih pretnji prisiliti Peking na sprovođenje reformi koje bi smanjile trgovinske neravnoteže i ojačale poziciju američkih kompanija u Kini (npr. kroz napuštanje subvencija i ukidanje obaveznog transfera tehnologije i ojačvanje prava intelektualne svojine). Ali, čini se da su to bila prilično nerealna očekivanja. Naime, bivajući u sve težoj poziciji, kineske firme su da bi minimizovale troškove, počele da povlače iz lanaca snabdevanja koje su podložne sankcijama SAD-a, nastojeći da umesto toga proizvedu input ili u zemlji ili u zemljama kineske sfere uticaja. Dugotrajni američko-kineski trgovinski konflikt će izazvati šokove koji će zahvatiti čitavu svetsku ekonomiju. Globalna konkurencija između Vašingtona i Pekinga će se intenzivirati bez obzira na napredak u rešavanju trgovinskih pitanja, budući da američka politika faktički promoviše podelu svetske ekonomije na dva konkurentna bloka. Na kraju, čini se da će zapadne zemlje biti prisiljene da private uspon Kine i da uključe tu zemlju u hegemonijsko jezgro ili da bude spremne za pojavu kontra-hegemonijske sile.

The study is dedicated to research of Engel-West explanation of Meese-Rogoff
puzzle on Serbia-Eurozone case (2004:q4 - 2015:q2). The analysis was
conducted by applying lag augmented VAR procedure (LA-VAR), which enables
quite reliable testing of Granger causality when (some or all) time series
are non-stationary without mandatory prior testing of cointegration and
differencing thereof. The following Engel et al. [2005] investigation was
carried out on bivariate and multivariate VAR models, taking into account
five macro?economic fundamentals (money supply differential, inflation rate
differential, interest rate differential, real GDP differential and
interaction of money supply differential and real GDP differential). The
obtained results demonstrate quite unconvincing indications about empirical
validity of present-value exchange rate models, and do not confirm findings
of Engel et al. [2005].

The paper begins with an analysis of the causes of strong rebalancing of the
world economy at the end of the first decade of the 21st century, which leads
to weakening of the relative economic importance of developed countries.
Then, the authors analyze whether we are in the process of creating a new
multilateral geopolitical stage and how much has become important the role of
some groups of countries (BRIC and G20). The authors analyze the changes in
the global financial architecture defined after World War II under the
predominant US influence. In the next two sections the authors first discus
how the global crisis will affect the geopolitical constellation and second,
they present some estimates that the U.S. dominance, with some dispersion of
its global power, could be retained. The authors have concluded that not any
of constant geopolitical elements in the leading world countries has
substantially changed since 2007, although the economic supremacy of
developed economies has significantly decreased in comparison with developing
countries and China, in particular. The U.S. leadership is not just a result
of its economic and military superiority, but it also results from the
relative attractiveness of its ideas and values. So, it is hard to believe
that a strong geopolitical reconfiguration could be caused by the global
economic crisis, especially in the medium term.

Dok je u prošlosti moć država bila zasnovana na kontroli kopna ili okeana, danas je ona definisana kontrolom tokova ljudi, robe, novca i podataka, i konekcija koje tokovi istih kreiraju. Ključne oblasti moći p(ostaju): ekonomija, tehnologija, potencijal za dolazeće klimatske promene, ljudstvo, vojska, zdravstveni kapaciteti i kulturna dominacija.
Nova realnost definiše globalnu privredu: (neprijateljsko) preuzimanje međunarodne ekonomije od strane geopolitike, iako glavno bojno polje na kome se takmiče velike sile nije vojno, već ekonomsko. U novonastućoj geo-ekonomskoj eri mnoge države stavljaju ekonomiju u centar strategije. Tržišna moć u nekim oblastima – kao što su 5G, poluprovodnici, retke zemlje, kvantno računarstvo i sistemi plaćanja – je kritična, kao i kontrola tokova podataka i digitalnih usluga. Došlo je do dramatične promene u samoj prirodi moći i načinima na koje se ona menja i kreće i u eri koja je došla nakon post-hladnoratoveske, nalazimo se u stanju bez formalnog rata, ali svakako ne mira.

Human rights of older adults are still not sufficiently developed. This paper will explore how the rights of older adults are regulated by European law and whether European law sufficiently recognizes older adults as a heterogeneous social group. The population of the European Union is growing older. According to the European Commission's reports, age discrimination in Europe is widespread. Therefore, the concept of work and retirement system as well as the perception of older adults should be transformed. Discrimination against older adults and various forms of inequality are amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. ; Los derechos humanos de las personas mayores aún no están suficientemente desarrollados. Este artículo explorará cómo los derechos de los adultos mayores están regulados por la legislación europea y si la legislación europea reconoce suficientemente a los adultos mayores como un grupo social heterogéneo. La población de la Unión Europea está envejeciendo. Según los informes de la Comisión Europea, la discriminación por edad en Europa está muy extendida. Por tanto, se debe transformar el concepto de sistema de trabajo y jubilación, así como la percepción de los adultos mayores. La discriminación contra los adultos mayores y diversas formas de desigualdad se ven agravadas por la pandemia de COVID-19.

Various factors can motivate and encourage individuals to leave their country
of origin and engage in the process of international migration. Large
migration flows over the past few years, which are a consequence of the
so-called refugee crisis in 2015, have resulted in a significant increase in
academic interest in international migration. Although many factors can
encourage international migration, people?s desire to increase their
standard of living is undoubtedly one of the most important causes. This
empirical study analyses the economic determinants of net international
migration. It was conducted using techniques of econometric analysis of
panel data on an extensive balanced panel data sample covering 136 countries
over a period of 30 years (1990-2019). Although this study focuses on the
analysis of the economic determinants of net international migration, it is
necessary to point out that in this case it is not a one-way impact. Apart
from the fact that economic indicators affect international migration, it is
indisputable that there is an effect in the opposite direction, i.e. that
migration flows significantly affect the economic performance of the origin
and destination country. This influence can be realised through different
mechanisms. The potential presence of reverse causality generates a problem
of potentially endogenous regressors, which must be considered when
selecting model estimation techniques. The estimation of the models was
performed using the following two techniques that allow cross-section
dependence: (i) standard common correlated effects pooled estimator (CCEP),
which is based on the application of the ordinary least squares method; and
(ii) modified common correlated effects pooled estimator, which is based on
the application of the two-stage least squares method, allowing the presence
of endogenous regressors. The obtained findings suggest that the impact of
the unemployment rate on net international migration is negative. Estimates
generated by the standard CCEP technique (as well as by the modified CCEP
technique) show that an increase in the unemployment rate of 1% results in a
decrease in net international migration by about 0.03 migrants (0.06
migrants) per 1,000 inhabitants. Education has a positive impact on net
international migration. The standard CCEP technique (modified CCEP
technique) points to the fact that a 1% increase in education results in an
increase in net international migration of about 0.01-0.02 migrants (0.003
migrants) per 1,000 inhabitants. The level of development of the migrant
network has a positive effect on net international migration. The standard
and modified CCEP technique show that increasing the stock of migrants by 1%
increases net international migration by about 0.04-0.05 migrants, i.e. by
about 0.01 migrants per 1,000 inhabitants. Finally, estimates obtained using
the standard CCEP technique suggest that a 1% increase in per capita gross
domestic product (GDPpc) results in an increase in net international
migration of about 0.01 migrants per 1,000 inhabitants, while the results of
the modified and more credible CCEP technique show that growth in GDPpc by
1% implies a decrease in net international migration by about 0.02 migrants
per 1,000 inhabitants. The negative effect of GDPpc could be rationalised by
the existence of an inverted-U relationship between GDPpc and emigration
(mobility transition curve). Acceptance of such an explanation requires that
the following conditions be met: (i) there is an inverted-U relationship
between emigration and GDPpc; (ii) the countries in the sample fit within
the growing part of this relationship; and (iii) when GDPpc grows,
emigration increases absolutely more than immigration.