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In this paper we evaluate the Swedish Programme for improving energy efficiency in energy-intensive industries (PFE). Since 2005, some 100 energy-intensive companies have entered this five year voluntary agreement (VA) and been exempted from the EU minimum tax on electricity. In return, each company is required to: conduct an energy audit and analysis; identify and invest in profitable electricity saving measures; implement and certify an energy management system; introduce routines for energy efficient procurement and project planning. For most participants the first programme period was completed in 2009 and available data enables this PFE ex-post evaluation. An impact evaluation compiles and analyse data that the companies have reported to the administrating agency, the Swedish Energy Agency (SEA). This assessment of quantifiable results is complemented by a process-oriented approach that combines studies of policy documents, previous evaluations and personal communication with administrators as well as companies. The bottom-up calculation method distinguishes between gross and net impact. While the SEA estimates a gross impact of 1450 GWh/year the net impact consists of an interval between 689 and 1015 GWh of net annual electricity savings. PFE has effectively and to a low cost exceeded the estimated impact of a minimum tax and can thus be judged as successful. A comprehensive evaluation plan could facilitate relevant data gathering in PFE and similar VAs and could, in doing so, improve accuracy and possibly reduce evaluation cost. Such a plan should give weight also to the organisational changes, with potential long-lasting effects, that these programmes are capable of promoting.

The objective of the EMEEES project is to assist the European Commission in developing harmonised evaluation methods. It aims to design methods to evaluate the measures implemented to achieve the 9% energy savings target set out in the EU Directive (2006/32/EC) (ESD) on energy end-use efficiency and energy services. The assistance by the project and its partners is delivered through practical advice, technical support and results. It includes the development of concrete methods for the evaluation of single programmes, services and measures (mostly bottom-up), as well as schemes for monitoring the overall impact of all measures implemented in a Member State (combination of bottom-up and top-down). This report present a bottom-up methodology for the evaluation of voluntary agreements with individual companies.

Before the minimum tax directive (2003/96/EC) took effect in 2004, Swedish industries had enjoyed untaxed electricity for over a decade. While the introduction of the tax increased costs for many companies, energy intensive industries were eligible for exemption if they entered an agreement on energy efficiency. Sweden quickly implemented the directive and simultaneously launched the Programme for improving energy efficiency in energy-intensive industries (PFE). Since then, over 100 companies have entered the five-year voluntary agreement which requires participants to do energy audits, implement energy management systems and make profitable investments. PFE has been hailed as a major success. Participants cite it in bringing organisation and structure into their energy management activities. Companies and industry associations now advocate for policies of this kind to receive precedence when targeting increased energy efficiency. According to ex-ante estimates PFE has resulted in gross annual electricity savings of at least 1 TWh, equivalent to 3 percent of the total consumption of participating companies. This paper presents an intermediate program evaluation focusing both on the PFE process and impact; it evaluates under what conditions the program meets stated objectives. It is evident that gross and net impact will deviate significantly from the officially reported results. Considering EU energy saving targets, the development of policy for energy efficiency in industry as well as monitoring and evaluation to assess program impacts is becoming increasingly important. This paper contributes to this process through an in-depth understanding of PFE, and more broadly to voluntary agreements of similar kind.

Following the development of large-scale use of biomass energy in the EU, international biofuel trade is a plausible scenario and something that is already taking place in Northern Europe. This paper focuses on Swedish biofuel imports, both direct and indirect imports, the latter which derive from the fact that part of the imported pulpwood and timber end up as fuel. The objective is to describe the biomass import flows, the actors involved and analyse the fundamental drivers for the trade flows. The rapid expansion of biomass energy, that has taken place in district heating since the early 1990s in Sweden, has been met partly by imports. The direct biofuel import was estimated to 18 PJ for 2000, which corresponded to 26% of the biofuel supply in district heating. The total indirect biofuel import was estimated to 9 PJ of which 5.5 PJ is consumed in the district heating sector. Sawmill wood chips, decay-damaged stemwood and pellets are imported from Estonia and Latvia, whereas used wood and solid recovered fuels are imported from Germany and the Netherlands. Tall oil and pellets are imported from North America. Key factors related to the Swedish biofuel import are analysed, both from the view of Swedish demand and from the view of supply in the Baltic countries as well as supply from Germany or the Netherlands. National differences in energy policy are perhaps the most important driving force behind the seemingly strange trade flows. Structures in the different national energy systems are also discussed as well as the transformation process that has taken place in the forest sector in the Baltic countries.

This paper analyses the potential biomass supply in the 15 EU countries, 8 new member states and 2 candidate countries (ACC10), plus Belarus and the Ukraine. For this purpose five scenarios were designed to describe the short-, moderate- and long-term potential of biomass-for-energy. Our assessments show that under certain restrictions on land availability, the potential supply of biomass energy amounts to up to 12.8 EJy-1 in the EU15 and 6.1 EJy-1 in the ACC10. For comparison, the overall energy supply in the EU15 totalled 62.6 EJy-1 in 2001. Consequently, there are no important resource limitations in meeting the biomass target for 2010, which was set by the European Commission (5.6 EJy-1 for the EU15 according to the 1997 White Paper on Renewable Energy Sources (RES)). However, given the slow implementation of the RES policy it is very unlikely that the biomass target will be met within 2010.

The present report presents a conceptual assessment model or framework for policy relevant analysis of low carbon transitions. The aim of the study is not to present specific guidelines for how to design assessments of low carbon transitions, but rather to give food for thought on aspects that should be regarded in the design process. The exact design would then depend on the purpose of the assessment, the scope and priorities set for the assessment, and the resources (personal and financial) available for the assessments.We find that there are at least three elements of an assessment model that are important to provide policy relevant knowledge: i) monitoring, ii) policy evaluation, and iii) domain knowledge building processes, including research. Monitoring is here understood as a process that is intended to inform whether society is on track on meeting set-up political priorities. Policy evaluation concentrates on the effects of low carbon transition policies and effects of other policies. Domain knowledge building through research and other processes is important both for identifying relevant assessment criteria and designing monitoring systems, as well as for policy evaluations. A domain knowledge base can include knowledge of i) drivers and barriers for low carbon transitions, ii) the sustainability of various technologies, policies and practices, iii) previous policy experiences, and iv) contextual knowledge of the market, actors, mitigation technologies and pathways, etc. in various sectors. This information and background knowledge will help inform how policies can be redesigned for overcoming the barriers and enable change in various contexts while safeguarding that the changes are not in conflict with other key societal goals and sustainability aspects. Monitoring can cover direct outcomes such as greenhouse gas emissions or diffusion of low carbon technologies. But with a long-term transitions perspective it is also important to look into the preparedness for change with regard to existence of factors such as visions and expectations, knowledge, feasible policies and policy instruments (taking into account stringency as well as coverage and policy coherence), societal norms, innovation networks, or the readiness of key technologies.Evaluation of policies can in turn cover several aspects beyond policy relevance and effectiveness including synergies and conflicts with other objectives. It could also evaluate the consistency of targets with overarching objectives as well as specific strategies, policy instruments or policy packages. In the conceptual assessment model, policy adjustments are expected to be informed by the monitoring process regarding what is needed and by policy evaluation with regard to what works. Together these processes can inform on how both the stringency and the design of policies could be developed over time.

This report analyses the technical opportunities for a complete decarbonisation of the basic material industry in Sweden by 2050. From this assessment, the report discusses policy implications for the industry sector given the overall framework set by the ongoing international climate negotiations. Relying on current production systems and applying "end-of-pipe" solutions will be insufficient to reduce emissions below the estimates produced by most climate economic modeling. Decarbonising the industrial sectors while maintaining production volumes requires a major effort to develop, introduce and invest in novel process designs that currently are not available on the market. For achieving this, our analysis points to the need for complementing the current main climate policy approach of pricing the emissions via the EU ETS with a stronger policy for technical change. The support needs to include funding for RD&D but also for market development support in a broad sense. So far, this approach has worked well in the renewable energy sector through the use of various support schemes. The report outlines a technology strategy for industry that identifies a set of broad technological platforms and infrastructure needs such as electrowinning, black liquor gasification, biomass based bulk chemicals, magnesium based cement, application of industrial CCS e.t.c., that all are in need of targeted support. A road map for creating a common vision between government, industry and civil society is a crucial first step. The overall purpose of a roadmap may be to establish priorities on RD&D, coordinate various actors, create networks and institutions for knowledge sharing, and map possible future technology and policy pathways.

This paper examines policy processes surrounding the rise and fall of the proposed EU-wide policy instrument designed to help achieve EU´s renewable energy targets – the trading of Guarantees of Origin (GO). It discusses its origins and examines factors in the policy processes over time leading first to its development and then to its rejection. A first analysis looks at the near-term policy-making process before and after the proposal on GO trading in January 2008, focusing on the European law-making institutions and influences of interest groups and member state governments. It then takes a step back and looks over a longer time period at how competing policy frames have shaped the trading debate. Results show how a strong internal market frame acted as a primary driving force in the Commission to promote the GO trading instrument. The rejection of the GO trading proposal in the Council and Parliament can be largely attributed to the lack of a strong lobby in favour of GO, the accumulated experience with and institutionalisation of national RES support policies such as feed-in tariffs, and growing general political concerns for supply security and competitiveness. The framing analysis show that the rise and fall of GO trading embodies a classic conflict between the internal market and the member states' wish to protect national interests.

Who can pick a winner? Since 1974, various types of targeted support have at different times been directed at the development of the heat pump market in Sweden – which in the following decades oscillated violently between soaring sales and collapse. Eventually, however, small heat pumps for space heating of residential buildings have in recent years securely established themselves as a mature and competitive technology within the Swedish energy system. This presentation portrays the events and actors that defined the formation and transformation processes of the heat pump market segment in Sweden, extracting pieces of experience that contribute to our improved understanding of how combinations of policy instruments, their application and termination, can affect whether a technology is perceived and received by the market as a handsome swan-to-be or no more than a simple duckling. Despite failing policies and markets, and despite continuously changing drivers in national energy policy, this technology has now lived up to the expectations of its proponents of the 1970s. One part of the explanation is found in the unique composition of the Swedish electricity supply and energy mix. Another is the perseverance of important key actors. A third part lies within the learning process that has taken place on the policy-making arena. Observations are made concerning the prospects for managing technical change. The evolution may be seen as an uncoordinated transition management process over 25-30 years. A coordinated effort might have produced better resluts, but it is not clear whether it could have been sustained over such a long time period in changing organisational and political contexts. A number of evaluations of policy instruments used in efforts to manage heat pump development have been performed along the way. These provide important information about the course of transpired events. But it is noted that such documents are permeated by the context in which they were written. Their assupmtions and results need to be read and interpreted accordingly.