Suchergebnisse

Abstract
We examine the factors influencing police response times, with a particular focus on staffing levels, calls for service (CFS), and proactive police work. We estimate Bayesian Holt-Winters state-space models for each CFS priority level. Using a novel dataset that combines data from the Salt Lake City Police Department's staffing and Computer-Aided Dispatch (CAD) systems at the daily level over seven years, we estimate the effects that staffing, overtime, call volume, and the level of proactive work (e.g., traffic stops, pedestrian stops, business checks) have on police response times. Our findings indicate that the impact of staffing on response times is significantly greater than that of other independent variables in the models. Furthermore, improvements in response times for higher-priority (i.e., more serious) CFS have a lower elasticity response to increases in staffing levels. As police agencies face increasingly complex challenges, the empirical evidence presented herein serves as a cornerstone for making informed decisions in the intricate balancing act of resources, officer well-being, and public safety priorities.

AbstractThe police murder of George Floyd sparked nationwide protests in the summer of 2020 and revived claims that public outcry over such high‐profile police killings perpetuated a violent "war on cops." Using data collected by the Gun Violence Archive (GVA) on firearm assaults of U.S. police officers, we use Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) modeling to empirically assess if and how patterns of firearm assault on police officers in the United States were influenced by the police murder of George Floyd. Our analysis finds that the murder of George Floyd was associated with a 3‐week spike in firearm assaults on police, after which the trend in firearms assaults dropped to levels only slightly above that which were predicted by pre‐Floyd data. We discuss potential explanations for these findings and consider their relevance to the contemporary discussion of a "war on cops," violence, and officer safety.

AbstractWould police racial and gender diversification reduce Black Americans' fear of the police? The theory of representative bureaucracy indicates that it might. We tested the effects of officer diversity in two experiments embedded in a national survey that oversampled Black Americans, producing several findings. First, in early 2022, nearly 2 years after George Floyd's killing, most Black Americans remained afraid of police mistreatment. Second, in a conjoint experiment in which respondents were presented with 11,000 officer profiles, Black Americans were less afraid when the officers were non‐White (Black or Hispanic/Latino) instead of White and when they were female instead of male. Third, in a separate experiment with pictured police teams, Black Americans were less afraid of being mistreated by non‐White and female officers. Fourth, experimental evidence emerged that body‐worn cameras (BWCs) reduced fear among both Black and non‐Black respondents. These findings support calls to diversify police agencies and to require officers to wear and notify civilians of BWC.

Abstract
Focusing on Mexican cartels and affiliated drug trafficking organizations, this article examines how self-proclaimed cartel members use social media to further the criminal activities of their organizations. Employing an open-source, intelligence-driven methodology, the authors identified, followed, and mapped the connections between and among 75 alleged cartel members over a period of 4 months. Results indicated that cartel members actively use Facebook to plan, organize, and communicate in real-time. These findings provide tentative validation to the utility of using open-source social media platforms to study the social structure and operations of Mexican drug cartels. Implications for law enforcement, homeland security, and the intelligence enterprise are discussed.

AbstractMany U.S. cities witnessed both de‐policing and increased crime in 2020, yet whether the former contributed to the latter remains unclear. Indeed, much of what is known about the effects of proactive policing on crime comes from studies that evaluated highly focused interventions atypical of day‐to‐day policing, used cities as the unit of analysis, or could not rule out endogeneity. This study addresses each of these issues, thereby advancing the evidence base concerning the effects of policing on crime. Leveraging two exogenous shocks presented by the onset of the coronavirus 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic and social unrest after the murder of George Floyd, we evaluated the effects of sudden and sustained reductions in high‐discretion policing on crime at the neighborhood level in Denver, Colorado. Multilevel models accounting for trends in prior police activity, neighborhood structure, seasonality, and population mobility revealed mixed results. On the one hand, large‐scale reductions in stops and drug‐related arrests were associated with significant increases in violent and property crimes, respectively. On the other hand, fewer disorder arrests did not affect crime. These results were not universal across neighborhoods. We discuss the implications of these findings in light of debates concerning the appropriate role of policing in the 21st century.