Suchergebnisse

AbstractAlgeria's electricity sector is dependent on fossil gas. Domestic gas demand is growing, and gas-fired power plants are projected to make up 84% of total installed capacity by 2028. This brings the country into a Sustainability Nexus dilemma: on the one hand, Algeria is committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts of the gas sector, whereas on the other hand, the energy and export revenue derived from gas would need to be substituted in order to ensure social and economic development in the country. Socioeconomic tradeoffs and alternatives must therefore be understood and managed in a way that ensures continued political and public support for the country's energy transition and fossil fuel exit. This paper aims to (a) identify fossil gas lock-in factors and (b) explore the opportunities to overcome these obstacles in order to facilitate a transition into renewable energy. Using a deductive approach, we draw on theoretical assumptions regarding carbon lock-in theory and the 2020 framework of Trencher et al. to study (1) technological and infrastructural conditions, (2) actors and agency, (3) formal and informal institutions, knowledge and competences, and (4) exogenous context. Between November 2021 and March 2022, a total of 23 semi-structured interviews were conducted in Algeria with stakeholders from the government, power and industry organizations, civil society organizations, and scientific institutions. The interview transcripts were then thematically analyzed to get a picture of recurrent themes and patterns. Our analysis identified several factors contributing to the fossil gas lock-in in Algeria's electricity system: economic dependence on oil and fossil gas; the significant influence of oil and gas actors, and the governmental support for fossil gas; gas and electricity subsidies, which lock out all other energy alternatives; and an overall lack of attention to climate change in energy policy formulation and in political and societal debate, despite the major capacity expansion plans prompted by heatwaves. The paper ends with a brief discussion of how Algeria's gas lock-in may worsen due to the war in Ukraine.

Poland is the largest hard coal and second largest lignite producer in the EU, generating around 80 percent of its electricity from coal. Resistance to a reduction in coal production and consumption comes from various actors, namely, coal corporations, unions, parts of civil society and the government – as well as their coalitions. Their opposition centres around the prospect of losing their business, past negative experiences with structural change, fears of rising energy prices and energy security concerns, as well as potential unemployment in regions almost entirely dependent on coal. This paper identifies key political and economic drivers and barriers of a reduction in coal production and consumption in Poland using the Triple Embeddedness Framework. Uneconomic coal mining, unavoidable energy infrastructure investments, rising air pollution levels and pressure from the European Union might provide new political momentum for a shift away from coal in line with international climate targets. However, results show that to achieve political feasibility, policies targeting a reduction in coal production and use need to be implemented jointly with social and structural policy measures, addressing a just transition for the affected regions in line with the vision of a 'European Green Deal'.

Poland is the largest hard coal and second largest lignite producer in the EU, generating around 80 percent of its electricity from coal. Resistance to a reduction in coal production and consumption comes from various actors, namely, coal corporations, unions, parts of civil society and the government – as well as their coalitions. Their opposition centres around the prospect of losing their business, past negative experiences with structural change, fears of rising energy prices and energy security concerns, as well as potential unemployment in regions almost entirely dependent on coal. This paper identifies key political and economic drivers and barriers of a reduction in coal production and consumption in Poland using the Triple Embeddedness Framework. Uneconomic coal mining, unavoidable energy infrastructure investments, rising air pollution levels and pressure from the European Union might provide new political momentum for a shift away from coal in line with international climate targets. However, results show that to achieve political feasibility, policies targeting a reduction in coal production and use need to be implemented jointly with social and structural policy measures, addressing a just transition for the affected regions in line with the vision of a 'European Green Deal'. ; BMBF, 01LN1704A, Nachwuchsgruppe Globaler Wandel: CoalExit - Die Ökonomie des Kohleausstiegs - Identifikation von Bausteinen für Rahmenpläne zukünftiger regionaler Strukturwandel ; BMBF, 01LA1810A, Ökonomie des Klimawandels - Verbundprojekt: Die Zukunft fossiler Energieträger im Zuge von Treibhausgasneutralität (FFF) - Teilprojekt 1: Implementierung von Ausstiegspfaden

This dissertation uses three models to analyze different decarbonization strategies for combating global climate change: The cost minimizing mixed-integer model CCTS-Mod examines the economics of Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS) for the electricity and industry sector; the welfare maximizing quadratically constrained model ELMOD focuses on different trajectories for renewable energy sources (RES) and transmission grid expansions; and the equilibrium model ELCO combines the insights of the individual sectors to a combined CCTS and electricity investment and dispatch model. Modeling results show that an investment in CCTS is beneficial for the iron and steel sector once the CO2 certificate price exceeds 50 €/t CO2. The threshold is 75 €/t CO2 for the cement industry and 100 €/t CO2 for the electricity sector. Additional revenues from using CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) lead to an earlier adoption of CCTS in the North Sea region. The lack of economies of scale results in increasing CO2 storage costs of more than 30%, while transport costs even double. Research from the last years, however, indicates that CCTS is unlikely to play an important role in decarbonizing the electricity sector. The identified reasons for this are incumbents' resistance to structural change, wrong technology choices, over-optimistic cost estimates, a premature focus on energy projects instead of industry, and the underestimation of transport and storage issues. Keeping global temperature rise below 2°C therefore implies the phase-out of fossilfueled power plants and, in particular, of CO2-intensive coal power plants. The low CO2 price established by the European Emissions Trading Scheme is insufficient to induce a fuel switch in the medium term. Therefore, supplementary national measures are necessary to reduce coal-based power generation; i.a. feed-in tariffs for RES, minimum CO2 prices, or emissions performance standards. Analyses for Germany show that a coal phase-out before 2040 is possible without risking resource adequacy at any point. Enabling a smooth transition encourages other countries to take the German Energiewende as a blueprint to combat global warming, even if this implies a coal phase-out. ; Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht und quantifiziert mit Hilfe drei verschiedener Modelltypen den möglichen Beitrag verschiedener Dekarbonisierungsoptionen: Das gemischt-ganzzahlige Modell CCTS-Mod berechnet, welchen Beitrag die Vermeidungstechnologie der CO2-Abscheidung, -Transport und -Speicherung (engl. carbon capture, transport, and storage, CCTS) im Stromsektor und in der Industrie erzielen kann; das Strommarktmodell ELMOD quantifiziert die Impliaktionen verschiedener Ausbaupfade erneuerbarer Energien (EE) und den hierfür benötigten Stromleitungsausbau; und das Modell ELCO verknüpft die Erkenntnisse des Strommarktes und der CCTS Technologie in einem Gleichgewichtsmodell. Modellergebnisse zeigen, dass CCTS in der Industrie eine mögliche Dekarbonisierungsoption darstellt, da sie sich im Stahlsektor bereits ab CO2-Zertifikatspreisen von 50 €/t CO2 und im Zementsektor bereits ab 75 €/t CO2 lohnt. Für den Stromsektor hingegen rentiert sich der Einsatz von CCTS erst ab CO2-Preisen jenseits von 100 €/t CO2. Zwar kann die Wirtschaftlichkeit in Einzelfällen durch die Nutzung der CO2-EOR (enhanced oil recovery) Technologie gesteigert werden. Der Verlust von Skaleneffekten führt allerdings zu einer Steigerung der CO2-Speicherkosten um 30% sowie zu einer Verdopplung der Transportkosten. Die Erfahrungen der letzten Jahre stellen daher in Frage, ob CCTS für den Stromsektor eine relevante Dekarbonisierungsoption darstellt. Die Gründe hierfür sind u.a. fehlende Anreize für betroffene Akteure, falsche Technologieauswahl, zu optimistische Kostenschätzungen, der Fokus auf Kraftwerke an Stelle von Industrieanlagen sowie die Vernachlässigung von Transport- und Speicherproblematiken. Ohne die Verfügbarkeit dieser Technologie ist zur Einhaltung der vereinbarten Klimaschutzziele deshalb ein Austieg aus der Kohleverstromung mittelfristig notwendig. Da der europäische Emissionshandel hierfür als alleiniges Instrument nicht ausreichend ist, werden auch in Zukunft nationale Zusatzmaßnahmen wie die Förderung von EE, ein möglicher CO2-Mindestpreis oder CO2-Grenzwerte notwendig sein. Analysen für Deutschland zeigen, dass ein solcher Kohleausstieg bis 2040 ohne Strukturbrüche und sozialverträglich möglich ist.

Political instability of several countries in the Middle East is overshadowing one of the biggest challenges of the upcoming century: Water - a natural resource that is easily taken for granted, but whose scarcity might lead to serious conflicts. This paper investigates an optimal Water Allocation of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivershed by introducing the WATER-Model. A series of scenarios are analyzed to examine the effects of different levels of cooperation for an optimal water allocation. Special emphasize is put on the effects of filling new Turkish reservoirs which can cause additional welfare losses if these actions are not done on a basin-wide coordinated basis. Modeling results show that Turkey is most efficient in its water usage. However, using the water for irrigation purposes in Turkey, instead of the Iraqi or Syrian domestic and industrial sector, decreases the overall welfare. Especially the Euphrates basin might thus encounter losses of up to 33% due to such strategic behaviour. The predicted water demand growth in the region is going to increase this water scarcity further. Minimum flow treaties between riparian countries, however, can help to increase the overall welfare and should therefore be fostered.

[Zusammenfassung] Dieses Gutachten analysiert die energiewirtschaftliche Notwendigkeit der Inanspruchnahme der im Teilfeld II des Tagebau Nochten lagernden Kohlevorräte. Es stützt sich auf die von den Autoren durchgeführte energiewirtschaftliche Modellierung, frühere wissenschaftliche Forschungsarbeiten und Politikberatung sowie auf die Bewertung aktueller Entwicklungen, insb. das 'Energie- und Klimaprogramm Sachsen 2012' (SMWA und SMUL, 2013) und das 'Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung' (BMU und BMWi, 2010); letzteres sieht u.a. den Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energieträger in der Stromerzeugung auf mindestens 50 % (2030) bzw. 80 % (2050) vor. Nimmt man diese energiepolitischen Rahmenbedingungen, in der öffentlichen Diskussion oftmals als "Energiewende" bezeichnet, ernst, so folgt hieraus ein stark rückläufiger Anteil der Braunkohle am Strommix. Während viele der bestehenden Braunkohlekraftwerke noch in den 2030er Jahren verfügbar sind, gehen deren Volllaststunden aufgrund der zunehmenden Einspeisung Erneuerbarer erheblich zurück. Es ist davon auszugehen, dass der Betrieb von Braunkohlekraftwerken in der Lausitz, und somit auch am Standort Boxberg, zu Beginn der 2040er Jahre auf Grund der hohen Einspeisung aus Erneuerbaren, der geringen Residuallast sowie tendenziell sinkender Großhandelspreise unrentabel sein dürfte. Nach der Absage der Energiewirtschaft und -politik an die Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS)-Technologie ist auch nicht mehr vom Einsatz einer CO2-armen Kraftwerkstechnologie auszugehen (weder Neubau eines CCTS-Kraftwerks noch Nachrüstung mit CCTS-Technologie). Daher ist in der Lausitz von einem mittelfristigen Ausstieg aus der Braunkohlewirtschaft zu rechnen, der im Bereich der frühen 2040er Jahren liegen dürfte. (.)

[Zusammenfassung] Dieses Gutachten analysiert die energiewirtschaftliche Notwendigkeit der Inanspruchnahme der im Teilfeld II des Tagebau Welzow-Süd lagernden Kohlevorräte unter Berücksichtigung der Zielfunktionen der Energiestrategie 2030 des Landes Brandenburg (Wirtschaftlichkeit, Versorgungssicherheit, Umwelt- und Klimaverträglichkeit sowie gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz, sogenanntes Zielviereck der Energiepolitik). Das Gutachten entstand im Auftrag des Ministeriums für Umwelt, Gesundheit und Verbraucherschutz des Landes Brandenburg; dabei sollten auftragsgemäß 'die Aspekte Klimaschutz und CO2-Emissionen einen besonderen Schwerpunkt darstellen'. Das Gutachten stützt sich auf vorliegende energiewirtschaftliche Modellierung sowie auf die Bewertung aktueller umweltpolitischer und energiewirtschaftlicher Entwicklungen, insb. neben der Energiestrategie 2030 auch das 'Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung' (BMU und BMWI, 2010). Dieses sieht den Rückgang der CO2-Emission um 40 % im Vergleich zu 1990 bis 2020 sowie um 80-95 % bis zum Jahr 2050, des Weiteren den Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energieträger in der Stromerzeugung auf mindestens 50 % (2030) bzw. 80 % (2050), sowie die Festlegung von Energieeffizienzzielen vor; hierzu trat im Sommer 2011 der Atomausstieg bis zum Jahr 2022. In diesem Rahmen wird von einem stark rückläufigen Anteil der Braunkohle am Elektrizitätsmix ausgegangen; zum Ende des Betrachtungszeitraums bis 2050 muss von einem weitgehenden Auslaufen der Braunkohle ausgegangen werden, da, auch unabhängig von der Höhe der CO2-Preise, das Betreiben von Braunkohlekraftwerken zu diesem Zeitpunkt auf Grund der hohen Einspeisung aus Erneuerbaren und geringer Residuallast unrentabel sein dürfte. (.)

German hard coal production ended in 2018, following the termination of subsidies. This paper looks at 60 years of continuous decline of an industry that employed more than 600,000 people, through a case study comparing Germany's two largest hard coal mining areas (Ruhr area and Saarland). Although predominantly economic drivers underlay the transitions, both provide valuable lessons for upcoming coal phase-outs induced by stricter climate policies, including beyond Germany. The analysis identifies the main qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the two regions. It then discusses policy instruments implemented to guide the transition, including measures for the conservation of coal production, regional economic reorientation, and the easing of the transition's social impacts. The success of these policies is evaluated using economic, social, and geographical indicators that were developed within three interdisciplinary research projects running from 2016 to 2019. A key lesson from the examined case studies is the importance of combining not only policies addressing unemployment and the attraction of new energy corporations and investments, but also measures improving infrastructure, education, research facilities and soft location factors. Protecting a declining industry for decades caused increased transition costs compared to an earlier phase-out. Economic reorientation and changing regional identities have proven most difficult in the past. However, the German example illustrates that the complexity of the challenges of a transition can be mastered if city, regional, and national governments and institutions cooperate in a polycentric approach. Key policy insights A faster and more pro-active hard coal mining phase-out in Germany would have been much less expensive and paved the way for new industries A just and in-time transition needs to: be jointly managed in a polycentric approach by city, regional, national, and international governments and institutions. combine climate, energy, social, and structural policies, whilst recognizing both local specifics and global connections. consider long-term effects, external independent advice apart from the incumbent regime and beyond-border thinking, while aiming to diversify the economy and enabling broad stakeholder participation. address unemployment, the economy, and the energy system, as well as measures to improve infrastructure, universities, research facilities, and soft location factors.

Political decisions and trends regarding coal use for electricity generation developed differently in the UK and Germany, despite being subject to relatively similar climate protection targets and general political and economic conditions. The UK agreed on a coal phase-out by 2024. In Germany, a law schedules a coal phase-out by 2038 at the latest. This paper investigates reasons for the different developments and aims to identify main hurdles and drivers of coal phase-outs by using the Triple Embeddedness Framework. The comparative case study approach reveals that policy outcomes regarding coal consumption are deeply influenced by several actor groups, namely, coal companies, unions, environmental NGOs, and the government. The most discussed aspects of a coal phase-out in both countries are energy security concerns, whether coal is mined domestically, (regional) economic dependence, as well as the relative power of actors with vested interests in coal consumption.

German hard coal production ended in 2018, following the termination of subsidies. This paper looks at 60 years of continuous decline of an industry that employed more than 600,000 people, through a case study comparing Germany's two largest hard coal mining areas (Ruhr area and Saarland). Although predominantly economic drivers underlay the transitions, both provide valuable lessons for upcoming coal phase-outs induced by stricter climate policies, including beyond Germany. The analysis identifies the main qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the two regions. It then discusses policy instruments implemented to guide the transition, including measures for the conservation of coal production, regional economic reorientation, and the easing of the transition's social impacts. The success of these policies is evaluated using economic, social, and geographical indicators that were developed within three interdisciplinary research projects running from 2016 to 2019. A key lesson from the examined case studies is the importance of combining not only policies addressing unemployment and the attraction of new energy corporations and investments, but also measures improving infrastructure, education, research facilities and soft location factors. Protecting a declining industry for decades caused increased transition costs compared to an earlier phase-out. Economic reorientation and changing regional identities have proven most difficult in the past. However, the German example illustrates that the complexity of the challenges of a transition can be mastered if city, regional, and national governments and institutions cooperate in a polycentric approach. ; BMBF, 01LN1704A, Nachwuchsgruppe Globaler Wandel: CoalExit - Die Ökonomie des Kohleausstiegs - Identifikation von Bausteinen für Rahmenpläne zukünftiger regionaler Strukturwandel

The Swedish state-owned energy utility Vattenfall and its owner are currently examining strategy options to address its own ambitious sustainability targets as well as the low-carbon objectives of the Swedish government. With more than 60 million tons of CO2 the company's German lignite mining and power operations impose an increasing risk on its business. While Vattenfall's Scandinavian generation structure corresponds to a high degree to its CO2 target, the German lignite business puts a heavy burden on the company's aspirations. In this respect there is need for action. The objective of this policy report is to identify the major trends that shape Vattenfall's future lignite strategy and to highlight the major risks of the German lignite mining and power operations. This will be done from a technical, an economic, and a legal perspective. The continuation of Vattenfall's German lignite operations is contradictory with both, the energy and climate strategy of the Swedish government, and the German energiewende; neither does it suit well with the 100% renewables strategy proposed by the Land of Brandenburg. The report evaluates the options that Vattenfall has in the current situation. It is based on a variety of reports published by DIW Berlin concerning the future of lignite in the context of the German energiewende (e.g. see Oei, et al., 2014a). [.] ; Der staatliche Energiekonzern Vattenfall sowie sein Eigentümer, der schwedische Staat, bereiten derzeit die Anpassung der Unternehmensstruktur an die Nachhaltigkeitsziele des Konzerns sowie die anspruchsvollen energie- und klimapolitischen Ziele Schwedens vor, u.a. in Bezug auf den Einsatz erneuerbarer Energieträger und die weitgehende Dekarbonisierung des Energiesystems. In diesem Zusammenhang stellt das kontinentale und insbesondere das deutsche Geschäft ein Problem dar: Während der skandinavische Teil der Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie weitgehend entspricht, ist das deutsche Braunkohlengeschäft weder in Bezug auf den CO2-Aussoß noch in Bezug auf Erneuerbarenziele nachhaltig. Hier besteht dringender Handlungsbedarf für die Konzernleitung. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die technischen, wirtschaftlichen und rechtlichen Risiken des deutschen Braunkohlegeschäfts von Vattenfall im Kontext der energie- und klimapolitischen Rahmenbedingungen in Schweden und Deutschland sowie insbesondere in der Lausitz. Die Darstellung erlaubt eine Einschätzung der Handlungsoptionen, die Vattenfall in der gegenwärtigen Situation besitzt. Die Arbeit baut auf einer Vielzahl früherer Gutachten und Forschungsberichten des DIW Berlin zur Zukunft der Braunkohle im Rahmen der Energiewende auf, s. Oei, et al. (2014a). [.]