Suchergebnisse

What can the issue of poor air quality in China's rapidly growing urban centers teach scholars about politics in contemporary China and authoritarian regimes more generally? This dissertation argues that the answer is (surprisingly) quite a bit. To this end, the dissertation makes use of a wide range of original data and novel methods to offer insights from a recent campaign to improve ambient air quality in the province-ranked municipality of Chongqing as well as recent episodes of abysmal air quality and resulting public outcry over ambient air quality monitoring and reporting standards into a number of ongoing scholarly debates. For example, do top-down accountability institutions such as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) cadre evaluation system through which leaders link the promotion of sub-national officials to quantitative indicators of their performance in office create perverse incentives for officials to manipulate these same indicators? If officials can indeed manipulate indicators, then is it possible for leaders to promote officials based upon their performance in office? Absent bottom-up accountability institutions like competitive elections and where leaders maintain substantial control over the media, who sets the public agenda and can the public agenda influence the policy agenda? The following chapters address these and related questions

According to many, the readiness of America's forces deteriorated in the 1990s. In the Air Force, the combat readiness of its fighter aircraft has declined. One of its indicators of combat readiness, the mission capable rate, is used to identify the percentage of aircraft unable to perform their missions. From FY94-FY98, the aggregate total not mission capable rate for maintenance steadily increased from 14% to 18.2% while total not mission capable rate for supply increased from 5.5% to 17.5% between FY86 and FY00. The USAF uses the funding/Availability Multi-Method Allocator for Spares model to forecast these rates for its aircraft. While FAMMAS does an excellent job of predicting mission capable rates using finding data and other factors, it is does not explain the key drivers influencing mission capable rates, limiting its effectiveness. Studies have identified other variables, manning/(experience levels, retention, fix rates, OPSTEMPO, spare parts issues, and aircraft systems reliability and maintainability as influencing mission capable rates. The research used these and other variables, using the F-16 as an example, to develop regression models that provide more insightful forecasts. Results are obtained from analyzing 600+ variables and 10 years of data, from the REMIS, D041, PDS, and HAF MDS systems.

Singapore's 2020 general election was held amidst the country's most serious public health and economic crises in the country's history. Despite expectations that these parallel crises would precipitate a flight to safety and result in a strong performance by the dominant People's Action Party (PAP), the ruling party received its third lowest popular vote share (61.2%) and lowest ever seat share (89.2%) since independence. This article engages explanations for the unexpected results and argues that the vote swing against the PAP was enabled by a hitherto largely overlooked factor: the 2020 election included two opposition parties that could credibly compete with the PAP on the valence considerations that drive voting behaviour in Singapore, giving voters a perceived safe alternative to the PAP at the constituency level. Quantitative tests support the notion that party credibility—rather than demographic factors, incumbency advantages, Group Representation Constituencies, or assessments of the PAP's fourth generation leaders—best explain variation in the vote swing against the PAP. Ultimately, the results suggest that the PAP's monopoly on party credibility is no longer assured, thus portending greater opposition competitiveness and pressure against the PAP in future elections. Nonetheless, the PAP's dominance remains intact and there is little evidence of a general appetite among the electorate for a non-PAP government, suggesting the likelihood of smaller course corrections rather than major steps towards democratization in the coming years (Pac Aff/GIGA)

Maritime piracy is a growing scourge on the international community-imposing large costs on maritime states and the shipping industry, as well as potentially undermining state capacity and funding terrorism. Using original data on over 3,000 pirate attacks, the authors argue that these attacks are, in part, a response to poor labor market opportunities. To establish this, the authors take advantage of the strong effect of commodity prices on labor market opportunities in piracy-prone states. Consistent with this theory, the authors show that changes in the price of labor- and capital-intensive commodities have consistent and strong effects on the number of pirate attacks in a country's territorial waters each month. The authors confirm these results by instrumenting for commodity prices using monthly precipitation levels. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Inc., copyright holder.]

Maritime piracy is a growing scourge on the international community—imposing large costs on maritime states and the shipping industry, as well as potentially undermining state capacity and funding terrorism. Using original data on over 3,000 pirate attacks, the authors argue that these attacks are, in part, a response to poor labor market opportunities. To establish this, the authors take advantage of the strong effect of commodity prices on labor market opportunities in piracy-prone states. Consistent with this theory, the authors show that changes in the price of labor- and capital-intensive commodities have consistent and strong effects on the number of pirate attacks in a country's territorial waters each month. The authors confirm these results by instrumenting for commodity prices using monthly precipitation levels.

Abstract
Who speaks for marginalised communities in dominant-party parliaments, where electoral accountability is weak? While existing work demonstrates the persistent salience of a legislator's personal identity in such settings, we build on recent 'critical actor' theory to argue for factors beyond identity-based selection to explain why representatives might speak for marginalised communities. To this end, we use a mixed-methods approach to analyse the representation of six marginal communities in Singapore's dominant-party system. A quantitative content analysis of all 8246 parliamentary questions filed from 2011 to 2020 shows that in addition to representative gender and ethnics identities, prior careers and political tenure also influence marginal community representation. In-depth interviews with seven Member of Parliament help identify precise mechanisms for such representation, including shared experience, career-derived awareness, political freshness and representative philosophies. That said, not all marginalised communities are well-represented, reflecting constraints on individual legislator-driven representation amidst broader party electoral strategies in non-competitive systems.

Transnational crime brings substantial foreign capital into a number of fragile and developing states. Yet the economic and political impacts of such capital have rarely been studied, due to the challenges of obtaining accurate data on illicit activities. We overcome this challenge by compiling a dataset on the amount and disbursement dates of ransom payments made by ship owners and insurers to Somali pirates from 2005 to 2012, along with sub-national commodity prices and trade flows in Somalia. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that ransoms have effects similar to those associated with the Dutch Disease. These effects include appreciating the local currency, decreasing export competitiveness, and increasing import dependence. Our results illuminate a new and distinct channel through which illicit capital can undermine long-term economic development and foster an economic and political dependency on illicit sectors.