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PurposeThis paper aims to apply the debt sustainability framework using various ratios to review the current state of sovereign debt of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) member countries.Design/methodology/approachDebt sustainability framework using various ratios (which include the present value approach, Country Policy and Institutional Assessment debt policy assessment ranking and solvency ratio of external debt) for the period 2010 and 2017 were used for the analysis to determine external debt sustainability and solvency of ECOWAS members.FindingsThe findings indicate that most ECOWAS countries are already turning at the unsustainable debt path and may renege in their debt obligations, thus creating a vicious cycle of external borrowing that could lead to capital flight.Originality/valueThis paper offers the empirical evidence to identify which of the ECOWAS countries are already at the threshold of external debt stress, and in the likelihood to renege on their debt obligations.

PurposeThis study forecasts the government expenditure components in Nigeria, including recurrent and capital expenditures for 2021 and 2022, based on data from 1981 to 2020.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs statistical/econometric problems using the Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares approach. Expenditure forecasts involve three simulation scenarios: (1) do nothing where the economy follows its natural path; (2) an optimistic scenario, where the economy grows by specific percentages and (3) a pessimistic scenario that defines specific economic contractions.FindingsThe estimation model is informed by Wagner's law specifying a positive link between economic activities and public spending. Model estimation affirms the expected positive relationship and is relevant for generating forecasts. The out-of-sample results show that a higher proportion of the total government expenditure (7.6% in 2021 and 15.6% in 2022) is required to achieve a predefined growth target (5%).Originality/valueThis study offers empirical evidence that specifically requires Nigeria to invest a ratio of 3 to 1 or more in capital expenditure to recurrent expenditure for the economy to be guided on growth.