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ABSTRACT: Climate change and resulting sea level rise will cause risk from coastal storms to increase throughout this century. Aggressive implementation of emissions reduction policies would significantly limit the risk, but in any event, planning for comprehensive adaptation is necessary. Past experience with long-term planning to reduce vulnerability and exposure along the coast shows a significant shortfall between the need to reduce risk and the implementation of appropriate policies. A new approach to public policy in this arena should be a priority for policymakers.

Defining "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" in the context of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) presents a complex challenge for those developing long‐term climate policy. Natural science has a key role to play in quantifying vulnerabilities of elements of the Earth system and estimating the risks from a changing climate. But attempts to interpret Article 2 will inevitably draw on understanding from social science, psychology, law, and ethics. Here I consider the limits of science in defining climate "danger" by focusing on the potential disintegration of the major ice sheets as an example of an extreme impact. I show that considerations of timescale, uncertainty, and learning preclude a definition of danger drawn purely from natural science. Decisionmakers will be particularly challenged by one characteristic of global problems: answers to some scientific questions become less accurate over decadal timescales, meandering toward the wrong answer, a feature I call negative learning. I argue for a precautionary approach to Article 2 that would be based initially on current, limited scientific understanding of the future of the ice sheets.

Cover -- Half Title -- Title -- Copyright -- CONTENTS -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- 2 INTRODUCTION -- 3 NONTARIFF BARRIERS AND THEIR EFFECTS -- 4 BIOTECHNOLOGY -- 5 COMPUTERS -- 6 SEMICONDUCTORS -- 7 SOFTWARE -- 8 TELECOMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT -- 9 OBSERVATIONS ON TRADE POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- List of Abbreviations -- Bibliography -- About the Authors.

The problem: fateful decisions in uncertainty -- Potential applications: historical cases -- Value of scenarios -- The scenario construction process -- Future applications and policy process